Most Likely BC Winner
 

Having had a day to review pre-entries, I wonder who people now view as the most likely winner on all the breeder's cup races.

My first thought is Groupie Doll but am curious how others are viewing things.

Paul

agree unless they mess with the track

Beholder in Juvy Sprint.

The Dude. It's his time.

Nancy O Juv Fillies Turf

Royal Delta if she goes Friday
Shackleford Saturday


Royal Delta if she goes Saturday

Just glanced briefly but going in it is Groupie Doll.

Really?

I don't like RD's chances in the Classic much at all.

I'd also assign Groupie Doll the highest probability of winning of any horse over the two days.

If she holds form, she's going to win.

She's had an injury earlier in the season and she's shipping to So. Cal from the Midwest for a guy who hasn't made that ship much if at all.

She's not the most likely horse to finish in the top 3 or top 4 on the 2-day event, but she is to win.

That was always the biggest deal in fantasy contests. You'd focus on most likely to finish top 3 instead of most likely to win and you'd always have more points by the end of the year.

Groupie Doll should win, but she can also bomb.

I can see where you are coming from, I just think the boys in there aren't all that much. So much so that Alpha is my top choice...

Agreed on the Classic field, but I don't think she's all that much either.

I think pretty highly of Its Tricky and after the Beldame RD moved up in my esteem.

typically, the distaff fave is the surest bet each year. but i don't know about that this year.

Actually isnt it the Juve Filly fav that has been hitting at a sick pct?

not sure. i just know that the article i read said that the distaff fave is generally spot on-perhaps the juvie fillies does as well?

Beholder in the sprint.

Perhaps better left for a separate thread but I think a better question is the inverse - most vulnerable favorite.

royal delta?

i'll wait till the races are drawn to say for sure though.

Why do you feel Royal Delta is so vulnerable? I think her or Questing is very likely in the Distaff. I would not say Delta is most likely only because of the depth of that field. Most likely winner for the weekend has to be Groupie Doll or Emcee.

Being lazy and not looking it up and going by memory, but I think the juvy filly favorite has won like 8 of the last 9 years.

And this may not be the proper thread, but with the Groupie Doll talk - what do people think of Contested. I see her almost as likely to win as Groupie Doll.

You need new glasses.

Wise Dan bet horse all year long will not disappoint with HOY on the line
A win puts him in any discussion

I think its Shackleford in the Dirt Mile. Yeah he lost last out, but I think he'll take to SA pretty well and win.

I'm in the boat with the consensus. Groupie Doll for me.

Question marks abound and he may not be the same but Fame And Glory towers in class over the Marathon field. Hard for me to resist......

On form, the answer is absolutely Groupie Doll. The old "assuming all horses show up and run the race their form suggests they are capable of running" game shows it is Groupie Doll.

That being said, I think the question become more interesting such as - who might you be willing to single and take a shot that otherwise doesn't stick out as a single...

Another question ....

Who is the most likely European winner (assuming they run where first preference is listed)? They will most likely win multiple grass races, but which one appears most likely?

My issue with Groupie Doll os a lot of that damage has been done on synthetic tracks. She's won on dirt too. But if Dust and Diamonds runs as good as she did last time she'll give groupie doll all she can handle. Groupie Doll is the deserving favorite, but I just don't think she's a lock or a single.

I was wondering that too. Her best performances have come over either synthetic or churchill ( which has a history of playing as poly friendly dirt course, no?)

She may just be the best but again at a very short price..