National Presidential Election contest thread
 

Pick the final electoral college count of the winning candidate.

You do not have to pick the winning candidate - only the electoral college vote count that candidate acquires.

Contest closes one week from today at 6:30pm (one week before the election).

There are 538 electoral votes. Thus your number must be a number between 270 (required to win) and 538.

No duplicate numbers - first come, first serve.

Winning number is closest to actual winning number without going over.

In case of ties, winner will be closest number under, with correct candidate chosen.

My entry

Winner: Obama with 288

obama 291.

i just went with 538's current 290.8 and rounded up.

this should be your last poll..

There is no way either one can win without winning the state of Ohio.

If the poll numbers right now can be trusted -- the winner of this election will probably be decided by the weather in Cleveland on election day.

Obama defeated McCain by 206,000 votes in Ohio in 2008.

Obama was +246,000 votes over McCain in Cuyahoga County. He was minus 40,000 to McCain in the state of Ohio with Cuyahoga County excluded.

In Ohio's District 11 (East Cleveland) -- Obama won almost 90% of the vote.

If the polls are accurate -- the state of Ohio will be won by the voter turnout in the big population areas around Cleveland.

If the weather is miserable in Cleveland on election day -- Obama will not get a monster turnout there like he did last year. Romney wins.

If the weather is clear in Cleveland on election day -- Obama will defeat Romney in Ohio and win the state and re-election.

Bottom line...if the polls are trusted and don't change... the weather in and around Cleveland on election day will be a deciding factor as to who wins the state of Ohio. And whoever wins Ohio, obviously wins the Presidency.

wisconsin will go to romney along with florida

If Romney carries the GOP leaning states, and continues to poll in the left leaning swing states that he's gaining traction in (IA, WI, NV), OH won't matter. There is a reason that Obama dropping like a rock on InTrade. FL is a huge loss presently - he was up 8 points before the debates; now down 2

I think it's down to Florida (29), Virginia (13) and Ohio (18) right now, and whoever wins 2 out of those 3 wins the election.

Are you entering the contest?

Romney has no chance without Ohio.

Iowa borders Illinois. Obama is undefeated in Iowa -- he pulled a major upset of Hilliary Clinton in the primary there. He owes his entire presidency to Iowa.

Romney is 0-for-2 and Iowa and couldn't even beat Rick Santorum there in the primary even though he outspent him by like $10,000 to $1.

The only way Romney gets Iowa, WI, and NV is if he breaks the whole entire thing open...and if he does that, he will win Ohio as well.

If you don't win Ohio -- you don't win the election. Same for either guy.

I didn't check this, but from memory I don't think a Republican has ever won the Presidency without carrying Ohio.Cuyahago County is historically a heavy base for Democrats.

It would take some really bad weather for the Ohio vote to swing to Romney's side.

Obama can win without Florida and Virgina.

Romney can't.

If I had to bet though -- I think Romney will win Fla and will win VA.

Reuters - Ipsos came out with an outlandish landslide Obama poll today ... I don't see that.

Since 1904, only two democrats have won without Ohio as well. John F. Kennedy and FDR in '44.

The winner of Ohio has won 25 of the last 27 presidential elections -- and it's been 100% must win for Republicans.

Romney would need an inside-straight to win this without Ohio. He'd have to get all the coin flips and steal one somewhere like Iowa where I don't think he has a chance.

When the poll is averaged along with other polling data from the state collected by Real Clear Politics, it shows Obama with 48.6 percent of likely voters to Romney's 47.2 percent margin.

Rasmussen has it dead even at 48%:

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/publ...iowa_president

Iowa is very much in play, and similar margins have closed in the other left leaning states.

Time zone exit poling will have much more of an effect in NV, but the numbers don't jive - OH can go to Obama and he can still lose the Electoral College

Obama won Iowa by a 9.5 percent margin in 2008 against John McCain.

....and really,really bad weather....

He also quite surprisingly trounced Hillary Clinton there in the 2008 primary.

Romney got crushed by Mike Huckabee and John McCain in Iowa in 2008 and didn't even beat Rick Santorum there in the 2012 primary even though Santorum's campaign was almost non-existent before Iowa.

Iowa borders Illinois. Obama gets out the vote there. He always does better than the polls say in that state.

They aren't passionate about Mormons in Iowa.

If Romney wins Iowa, this thing is going to be an absolute landslide victory for him. Obama will get out the vote there. The Romney turnout is very shaky there.

He totally schooled Hillary in Iowa. She ran a dreadful campaign, full of negativity, then ran out of cash. Her campaign managers - in my opinion, figured it was a slam dunk based on race and religion( still a lot of confusion back then based on whether he was truly a Muslim or not, if you can believe it) and didn't take the state seriously enough. That and he was running primarily on ending the wars while she was still very much hawkish. An anomaly.

Romney 311 - Obama 227

269-269

Romney is given the election due to superior cash.

i was just thinking about the scenario if neither candidate got to 270. it's happened in the past, but because of having more than two candidates. for instance, when john quincy adams became president, his opponents jackson and clay both also received electoral votes. clay and his 'corrupt bargain' with adams ended the issue, and jackson and his supporters were left in the cold (and jackson had received the most popular votes). four years later, andy got his revenge.

the issue would be decided by the house of representatives that take their seats in january.
but the vp, in case of a tie...chosen by the senate. so, we could actually end up with a president from one party, a vp from another, for the first time in a long time!
my gosh, can you imagine if this actually went to congress? yikes.

National Presidential Election contest thread
 

Obama - 287 (but I'm secretly hoping for the 269-269 scenario).

In that case.

Congress chooses the President and the Senate the Vice President

Romney/Biden?

Romney/Obama? LMAO

Personally I'd like to see Ryan/Jackson with Jackson occupying the Mayo Clinic

In that case... the House picks Romney

and the GOP in the Senate will require a supermajority, in turn, nobody recieves 60 votes and the speaker of the house will be the new vice president.

Different than what I had reported earlier this morn but for obvious reasons makes much more sense. Need to stop watching WGN in the morning I guess?

:tro:

Geesh, maybe Reuters is gonna be right on their electoral college prediction. Especially if Donald Trump and Richard Murdock continue to represent the Republican Party these last 13 days.

Donald Trump does need to shut his pie hole if Romney wants to win this thing.

no supermajority needed. in case of a tie, biden would break it. so you potentially could have romney as prez, biden as vice.

he just needs to shut up.

Do you realize that the entire source of the "Is Obama a Muslim?" thing was completely made up and started by a Hillary secondary campaign worker, who sent it out in an e-mail from the campaign? And Hillary had a fit about it, and ordered it stopped.

Rasmussen: Romney 261, Obama 253
 

Rasmussen’s polling (all conducted during the past week except for in Pennsylvania) shows Romney ahead in Florida (by 5 percentage points), Virginia (by 3 points), Colorado (by 4 points), and New Hampshire (by 2 points). It shows Obama ahead in Pennsylvania (by 5 points), Wisconsin (by 2 points), and Nevada (by 2 points). It shows Ohio and Iowa tied.


http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/...53_657575.html

http://www.examiner.com/article/wedn...-3-4-new-polls

see ya later riot...:$::tro::tro:

The nation has gotten wind of Riot's impending banishment and is responding in force!

Let's look at the polls Hooves posted:

Gallup: Romney falling, drops 1, Obama rising, up 1

Ras: holding

UPI: Obama rising, continuing rise; Romney continues trend drop

ABC: Romney ahead by 1/2 point.

Don't worry, Hooves - on the evening of November 6, you'll be grateful I offered you the alternative deal to only leave Politics and not all of Derby Trail in 13 days, out of my sympathy for your friends and handicapping here :tro:

you really think i give a **** about this place..ive given out pleanty of winners here.. had the first idea for dt stable.steve is a friend and you know what id be willing to bet you will go before me if it came to me or you,,,,fyi riot..stfu puto

I would hope you indeed give a **** about this place, but I don't particularly care what you think.

Yes, I know how very special you are (having personally thanked you for your winners in the past, btw, which you seem to forget in your repetitive rudeness), and that's why I offered to you to change the bet you made to be loser not having to leave Dee Tee - which you accepted.

Because watching you make a bet that is virtually sure to lose, causing you to have to leave Dee Tee to keep your word, would be rather unfair to you, as I said yesterday.

So yeah, Hooves, it does come down to me or you a week from Tuesday, because that's the bet you made.

And I certainly won't miss you being an unrepentant rude cursing jack.ass here in Politics.

Entries to date
 

You can enter (or change your entry) until next Tuesday (1 week before election)

311 Romney - joeydb
291 Obama - hi im god
288 Obama - Riot
287 Obama - Ocala Mike
269 tie to Romney - clipclop

Speaking of Trump..

Colbert challenge to Trump..

http://www.colbertnation.com/

Last day to enter contest, election one week from today.

So far, I think Joey will win - but the winner with that electoral vote total will be Obama, not Romney (which means Joey still wins!)

See first post in thread for rules - just post the electoral college result of winner, without going over, you do not have to pick winner. Picking correct winner is tie-breaker.

Entries so far, the electoral vote total of winner 2012 Presidential:

311 Romney - joeydb
291 Obama - hi im god
288 Obama - Riot
287 Obama - Ocala Mike
269 tie to Romney - clipclop

National Presidential Election contest thread
 

I like where I'm sitting, strategically. If Obama wins a close one, it's all me!

The electoral count closest to the winner "wins" first - the correct Pres. pick only comes into play to break a tie.

If Ipsos-Reuter Obama electoral blowout occurs, Joey wins! ;)