Change of Plans for Lava Man
 

Doug O'Neill had originally planned on running Lava Man in the Clement Hirsch at 1 1/4 miles on the grass. He wanted to run there because that would have given him 5 weeks before the BC Classic. But when he realized that he was going to have to face the The Tin Man in there, he came to his senses and decided to run in the Goodwood instead. The Goodwood is 1 1/8 miles on the dirt and is 4 weeks before the BC Classic. I think O'Neill made a good choice. the Goodwood will be a much easier race.

Would have been a great thing to see Rupert (Lava Man vs Tin Man).
People on here just dont give either one of these the credit they deserve. I would love to see both win on BC Day. Its not that far fetched either.

I have a bet with Oracle about Lava. All I am worried about. My highlight of the day will be when Lava hits the board in November:D

The Tin Man won't be on the lead w/a 1:15.18 in the Breeder's Cup, I don't see him winning, JMO

He doesn't need to be on the lead to win. He's won plenty of times from off the pace.

He hasn't won from off the pace in the BC...

Neither have any of the other horses that will be in the race.

Better Talk Now?

Oh that's right. You are correct. I still like The Tin Man's chances a lot better than Better Talk Now.

We'll see...I actually like The Tin Man...I just don't see him winning in the BC...time will tell.

It's a big mistake to run him within 6 weeks of the Breeder's Cup.This horse will do best with atleast 6 weeks rest before a huge race like this.Do you remember when he almost got beat at Hollywood? That's the way he will look if he doesn't have enough time between races.

oh wow.
The Slow Man has tried the BCT before(when he was actually a better horse) and failed miserably.

he got away with a terribly slow pace and won a pretty weak Grade 1 10f race.
I know its not good to say that about the Arlington Million but thats what it was this year.

this is not a legitimate US threat.
our only shot is English Channel.
I originally doubted him, but he has been excellent as a 4YO this year.
problem is, he probably is simply not good enough to run with the top 10 European horses at 12f and Im guessing at least 2 or 3 of those will make the trip to run in the BCT.
thats just the reality of the situation.


Repent

Good luck, he's not hitting the board.

To say The Tin Man was a better horse the last time he tried the BCT is absurd. The last time he ran in the BCT, his two races leading up to the BCT were a 6th place finish in the Arlington Million and a 7th place finish in the Jim Murray.

This year he comes into the BCT off a win in the Arlington Million and a win in the American Handicap.

Not saying that the Tin Man is my choice but just remember 1998 at Churchill Downs on Breeders Cup Day THere was a Little Colt Called Bucks Boy that put them all to Sleep on ther front end that day and wired the field in the BC Turf. So to say he can't set Slow fractions again is totally not true.

Yes Rupert but lets not forget the Tin Man's win in the Arl Million didnt count because for once English Channel didnt get his perfect just off the pace trip. So lets throw that out and only count the races English Channel and Cacique won.

I don't fancy Affirmed's boy in the BC Turf simply because he has always been better at 10f than at 12f. Against genuine 12f types (of which there aren't a lot in the US this year), I'm afraid he'll be exposed as lacking stamina for 12f at the top level.

The Million fit TTM like a glove this year - ideal distance, ideal pace scenario - in my mind, he should have been even money, not the lovely price I got. Astonishing how people get caught up in arguing 'who is the best horse? (in absolute terms)' and forget to look at the likely pace scenario.

Did you even watch the Hollywood Gold Cup? Lava Dude stumbled out of the gate and spotted the field several lengths, had to run from behind horses, something he doesn't like to do. Despite all that, he still managed to get up and win, conceding chunks of weight to the others.

When he was a 'cheap' horse, Lava Man had no problem with running decent races two or even one week apart (2 stakes races at Pomona in 2004 - won one, third in the other).

Here's Doug prepping Lava Man for the Goodwood

i wasn't so worried about the tin man in the hirsch, i read the other day that english channel was headed there as well.

lava man is a better horse this year than last, his record this year speaks for itself.
there will be a full field (apparently) in the classic, so all but one of those good horses will lose--and 11 will miss the board. WOW i have tons of respect for those who go out on a limb to pick 1 of the 13 losers, rather than the one winner.

Thats the Big Buckin Chicken!

The Tin Man is a better horse NOW. He has aged like a fine wine. Still tough against the Euros, but he will again dictate some pace and be a player in determining the outcome.

welll, if it isn't my favorite science teacher....good morning!

i would love to see the tin man win....an older horse in the mold of john henry--only maybe not as nasty! and affirmed would have a bc winner. that would be sweet.

The BC Turf is not 12 furlongs this year. Chirchill does not run 1 1/2 mile races. The race will only be 1 3/8 miles this year.

He's not being chicken at all. He's planning on running the horse in the toughest race there is. He's planning on running him in the $5 million BC Classic. If he were chicken, he wouldn't be running him in there. Not only that, they are going to supplement him. If they were chicken in the least bit, they could use the fact that he's not nominated to the BC as an excuse not to run him.

The next race is only a prep race. The race is irrelevant compared to the Classic. The purse of the Goodwood is $400,000. The $5 million race is just a tiny bit more important than a $400,000 race. The purpose of the prep race for Lava Man is to prepare him for the Classic. O'Neil is going to choose the prep that gives LM the best chance to win the Classic. He obviously doen't want to have a really tough prep race. Even if he knew for sure that he would beat TheTin Man, he still would not want to run against him because you don't want your horse to have to fully exert himself in he prep race. LM has already had a hard campaign this year.

You're right. It's only the Filly and Mare Turf that will be run at a different distance. The Churchill layout cannot run a 1 1/4 mile race on the grass, so the Filly and Mare Turf will be 1 3/8 miles.

Someone had told me that the BC Turf would also be run at 1 3/8 miles. That information is wrong.

By the way, The Tin Man has won at 12 furlongs.

Why didn't they supplement him earlier in the year when it was cheaper, with that new rule that was instated? or did the supplement him already?

With the new rule, I don't think the price is any cheaper earlier in the year. As far as I know, it's a one-time fee of $150,000 and that makes the horse eligible for life. With Lava Man, I don't know whether they paid the money yet or not.

well if that is the case, they will probably do it last minute to make sure he didn't get hurt, that is the only logical reason

Yes, exactly.

Funny how you can call a horse that has made almost 2 million dollars this year slow. As for the European contention well he seemed to have his way with all of them in Dubai except for David Junior who is undefeated this year.
He very well may not win , but to call him slow when all the rest of the riders in the Arlington million "let" him go that slow is just silly.
I bet any horse owner on this board would love to have a slow horse like him .

I know he has, but his best form have been at 10f, IMHO. A good horse can beat lesser types over a trip different from its best, eg. Bold Forbes in the Belmont, I just feel (fear?) The Tin Man can't beat first class 12f horses. I love the horse but am aware of his limitations.

this is being discussed in another thread,
but clearly I was referring to 2002 when he was in better form.
set slow fractions and lost to a somewhat weak BCT field.
he has no chance this year, but please, bet as much as you possibly can on him.

Repent

he has at least as much of a chance, more so in my opinion, in the turf as perfect drift in the classic.

lmao,
dude, the horses he ran against in the Dubai Duty Free at like 8.5f are not the same horses he will face in the BCTurf.

and that earnings number is inflated b/c of the sizes of the purses on Dubai World Cup day.

thats like saying Brass Hat is one of the best dirt horses in the world b/c of the money he would have won(if not disqualified) for running 2nd in the DWC.

those earnings are inflated.

Repent

lol,
yeah that sounds about right.

and as much of a chance as Karens Caper has in the BCFMT.


Repent

Honu is not a dude. Honu is a girl. The Dubai Duty Free is 1 1/4 miles, not 8.5 furlongs.

I am mistaken. The Dubai Duty Free is 1 1/8 miles.

You are a funny basta*d, and I think Rupert would know if I were a boy or a girl because we have met. Purses may be inflated but so are the owners wallets with what the horse has earned this year.

Repent, remind me what you think of Smarty Jones. (so folks can judge for themselves your knowledge of horse talent.)

--Dunbar