Whole lotta cheating go in on!
 

Todays fifth race at Saratoga proves again that the game I love to play has a whole lotta cheatin go in on!

It would be easy to say that, but the reality is they were all relatively poor horses. The favorites were all mainly bred for the grass. The winner was impossible to come up with, but the 2nd finisher could've been used. I bet the 4 horse and he never got a call.

the 5 also went crazy fast..

This post proves that you should find a new hobby.

F*ck off As*hole

looks like you found one....

If it helps I backed the winner and the second :):)

The favourites looks dreadful value and was worth playing something ludicrous!!

Stop with that awful bullsh*t.

Agree. Same thing happened yesterday in the 4th and 5th. Alive in the pick 4 i spread deep in both races and did not come up with either of the longshot winners. I just shook my head and laughed it off. I mean this is Saratoga..Sh*t happens...

Anyone who thinks anything suspicious happened in the 5th race today at Saratoga is nuts.

The 70-to-1 shot winner Lady Utopia was far from a proven commodity.

She was just a 3rd time starter! Her broodmare sire Glitterman was an excellent stallion. Here is what I wrote about Glitterman as a broodmare sire of debuters :

http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/sho...9&postcount=17


For whatever reason -- a lot of Glitterman's don't fire in their debut.

Balto Star was Glitterman's richest son. He finished 8th and last in his debut at odds of 6/5. He was off the board at AQU in starts #2 and #3.

http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqbP...try=USA&race=6


Just months later, Balto Star won the Grade 2 Spiral by 13 lengths. He won the Grade 2 Arkansas Derby by 4.5 lengths. And he was 8/1 in the Kentucky Derby after running last in his debut and off-the-board back to back in starts 2 and 3 at AQU. He eventually became a 7-time Graded Stakes winner after a terrible start to his career.


So, getting back to Lady Utopia, you have a horse who doesn't fire in her debut. In career start #2, she's in with NY Breds and breaks through the gate before the race. Something that causes a lot of horses at all class levels to turn in poor performances

Today, she's a 3rd time starter, adding blinkers for the 1st time with two excuses in her first two races. Basically, she was not a known commodity at all. Yes, she had only a 27 Beyer when she broke through the gate and raced without blinkers last time out, but the even money favorite in the race had figures of 5 and 45 in her two dirt races.

As for the 44-to-1 second place finisher -- she was a 100K purchase at a 2yo sale by Half Ours. She was making only her 2nd lifetime start on dirt and plunging in for a 20K tag. In her only other dirt start, she got bumped at the start in what was her career debut, and she faced the sensationally fast NY Bred filly turned Agave Kiss.

Basically, the even money favorite was a bad favorite in that race and an extremely medicore horse even for the cheap class level. Two fairly unproven commodities put it all together and finished 1st and 2nd.

It's more likely to happen at places like Saratoga...but check out PID the last 3 racing days.

More recent racing day: 9/1 winner edges a 56/1 2nd place finisher by a nose. In the very next race, 16/1 winner beats a 62/1 2nd place finisher by a length.

Two days ago: A 91/1 shot finishes 2nd. In the very next race, a 85/1 shot finishes 2nd beaten just a 1.5 lengths by a $15.00 winner.

Three days ago: An 87/1 bomb finishes 2nd by a neck.

In the last 21 races to occur at Presque Isle Downs, horses have finished a competitive 2nd at odds of 56/1, 62/1, 85/1, 87/1, and 91/1.

It was bottom level $20 State Bred Maidens, what were you expecting...

That's kind of the equally silly mentality to "longshots won, someone must be cheating"

Each race is its own entity. There are a lot of bottom State bred races where favorites should dominate and the chance of 'chaos' occuring is virtually close to zero.

Post of the day. :)

Wow, I struck a nerve.

The premise of your wild accusations was utterly ludicrous, this race is far from an example of cheating and demonstrated a lack of handicapping knowledge and a jump to conclusions on your end.

As has been explained by others, particularly by Doug who can do a far better job than I, this is an example of bad horses winning a bad horse race. The horses that were bet were very vulnerable favorites.

To suggest that Gabriel Goodwin who was 1 for 34 this year before the race was cheating is laughable and demonstrates nothing but sour grapes on your part. Sorry that I pointed out the obvious, but this game has enough problems without players making stupid baseless knee-jerk accusations of cheating.

Well you made me look again, both were dropping and a muddy track. Blinkers on? Trained at Saratoga, The 1 wasn't dropping because he was any good

- 9 9 10§« 10¨© - - Napravnik R
running line for Sim Sala Bim

Newsflash for those looking for "cheating"
In general you should look for prices that paid less than they should not more. Like the time when I was working at Yonkers when the exacta in a race came back less than the 1st place finisher did to win.

Shouldn't the word "time" be in the plural here?

This is Glitterman as a broodmare sire with debuters going back as far as I can go:

2012: Zero for the year
2011: 4-for-46 (9%) $0.75 ROI
2010: 3-for-52 (6%) $0.75 ROI
2009: 3-for-50 (6%) $0.65 ROI
2008: 2-for-46 (4%) $0.39 ROI
2007: 1-for-37 (3%) $0.14 ROI

If you want an edge with maiden races -- you have to be willing to spend nights and nights studying to get that edge and you have to work on figuring out how to best apply your information.

The Hill... where when you win, you lose..

"Bad horses win bad races..."

Andy Serling

NickOwompous Leroy over MR AAA?

so true. i've looked at races before (delta downs most recently) and told my husband 'they're all pigs'. but somebody has to win. have made out well iin those races many times. a lot of people will jump on a horse with seconditis, figuring it's finally going to win-no, it'll probably finish second again.

I went back and looked up the past performances for Balto Star.

Probably the most unique thing about him was that he was 13/1 in an Inner Track MSW race at AQU, 8/1 in the Kentucky Derby, and 8/1 in the Breeders Cup Mile, ALL IN THE SAME YEAR!

That will obviously never happen again even if the AQU Inner survives for another five hundred years.


Here is what Balto Star's Thoro-Graph figures looked like going into the Derby:





He improved 27 Thoro-Graph points in less than 7 months from his debut until the Arkansas Derby.

He made 3 starts as a 2-year-old -- and the best Beyer he had in those three starts was just a 56. He ran a 112 Beyer in his win in the Spiral at Turfway. Literally double his top 2yo figure.

7-time Graded Stakes winner, earner of over $2.3 million, and it took him 4 starts to run a Beyer better than 56.

we'd rarely see a .75 TG = 112 bsf these days ...realizing of course that it's apples and oranges, but the divergence here is astronomical

Yep. Balto Star was killer fast on Thoro-Graph's in the winter of his 3yo season.

By comparison Tiznow won the 2000 Breeders Cup Classic with a 0 and he won the 2001 Santa Anita Handicap by five lengths with a 0 as well.

Basically -- March of 2001 -- the best older horse in the country, Tiznow is 0.00 on TG while winning the Big Cap by 5 lengths and Balto Star is 0.75 winning the 600K Spiral by 12.75 lengths at 6/1 odds.

They gelded him after his terrible debut. He reportedly tried to mount the lead pony.

I think Jimmy Marohn got 3 months from Yonkers for this one

Was that big jump from 10 to 3 the first time he was put on the lead while going long?

Maybe it just took them some time to figure out what he really liked?

Didn't Lava Man have a similar type improvement and circumstances (on lead going long)?

Lava Man had plenty of speed, but certainly wasn't a need-the-lead type.



Lava Man...YES!

No, Balto Star was on the lead for his 3rd career start and he faded to 4th.

When Balto Star broke his maiden by 11 lengths at 13/1 odds on the Inner Track in start #4 -- he was rated off of the lead.


Lava Man was a consistant horse for Lonnie Arterburn. The instant Doug O' Neill claimed him, he moved up dramtic way.

Lava Man was not a front-end horse for O'Neill. He didn't go to the early lead for O'Neill until his 12th start for him in the Pacific Classic, where he finished 3rd under P. Val. Lava Man was a stalker/presser type in his prime.

In Lava Man's case, it was obviously the trainer switch. In Balto Star's case, he just didn't show up at all and turned in non-efforts the first 3 times he raced.