New Thoro-Graph record?
 

"Thoro-Graph banter has Royal Delta in the negative 5 range for Fleur de Lis. Might end up being their best number ever for a female."

I'd be interested to see Thoro-Graph post the 10 fastest figures from the entire year of 1994 in all races...

And compare them with the 10 fastest figures earned by horses in $10,000 claiming races or less in 2009.

I think people would be very surprised by the results.

Ya there was an interesting seminar at one of the DRF conferences in Las Vegas with Len Friedman, Jerry Brown and Beyer and a major topic of conversation was whether horses have gotten faster or slower. The sheets guys said faster, while Beyer said slower.

Yep. That is what is reflected on their figures.

On Beyers, horses have become a few points slower at all class levels over the last few years. A 115 twelve years ago would be like a 108-to-110 today. A 85 from 1999 would be like a 79 today.

On Ragozin Sheets, horses have become a little faster at all class levels over the last 10 to 12 years.

On Thoro-Graph Sheets, horses have become MUCH faster at all class levels over the last 10 to 12 years. Cheap claimers are now as fast as Great Hall of Famers.

However, all 3 figures have remained fairly consistent from class level to class level through time period to time period.

Thus, if you anchor the scales down with class pars -- all 3 of them will allow you a very comparison of todays horses with past horses at all class levels.

What are the fastest TG numbers ever for a male horse? I think Midnight Lute twice ran a negative 7. I've never seen better than that.

Midnight Lute broke Ghostzapper's record and currently holds it.

Thorograph as usual has too many negative numbers

The scale only matters when comparing horses from different time periods.

I know she has always had a fairly big reputation, but had Royal Delta ever run a fast race before the Fleur de Lis? Who was behind her?

I kinda of thought she won the BC by default, with Havre de Grace opting for the Classic. Before that, she seemed to be an in-and-outer.

Her BC Distaff win was very good imo. She closed into a slow pace and flew late to beat It's Tricky ... but no, she never ran super fast before this weekend.

Keep in mind, on Thoro-Graph, they factor in weight (this race was a handicap) and ground loss (she's a closer and gets wide trips) -- so a 110 Beyer type race for her is always going to look faster on Sheets.

Seems like virtually all of the record figures come at age 4.

Why 1994?

Thoro-Graph had all of the horses at all of the class levels throughout the country relatively very slow to where they are now as recently as the Mid 1990's.

By about 2009 -- the scale had reached peak after peak and Brown talked about doing stuff manually to scale it back and slow horses down.

What was Lawyer Ron's # in the 2007 Whitney?

negative 6

https://www.thorograph.com/archive/files/bc2007.pdf (Midnight Lute sheet in that BC package as well..)

Hey thanks man!

For whatever it's worth, while Midnight Lute did pair negative 7's, the fastest TG figure EVER was Quality Road's Negative 7.5 at Gulfstream in Feb of 2010, Donn Handcap.

Thanks. I guess I had finally stopped paying attention to all the new Thoro-Graph records by that point.

Quality Road was also a 4-year-old when he ran that negative 7.5 in the Donn.

I don't know enough about TG, but I posted why the Beyer was wrong for that race, too high of course, and nothing that happened after did anything to change my mind.

I remember that.

It's the Mike Smith factor. :D

That reminds me of a story. I once asked Jerry Brown if he ever came accross a jockey that actually made the horses faster. He said only one. Laffit Pincay Jr. Said he did a study that showed times when the data seemed to prove that Pincay sometimes changed the number by a quarter point. Sounded rather fantastic to me but having seen Spend A Buck's Jersey Derby live. I was in no position to argue.

Is there a TG rating for European Horses? If so, what would Frankel get after todays performance.

Probably not very fast. At least not nearly as fast as you'd think.

TG has European horses slow. Most Euro's will come over here and improve by leaps and bounds on TG.

Brown makes a compelling argument on horses getting faster based on the cushion on the tracks getting deeper through the years. At the end of the day, it is really difficult to believe today's classified allowance horses are faster than Secretariat and Bid, but it's an interesting look at some of the more sophisticated factors the TG guys use. I think there is some evidence and the breeding of today probably supports Brown's theory that brilliance is taking over where stamina was just as important 40 years ago.

I guess it really doesn't matter for handicapping purposes because we're only talking about speeds relative to the current competition.

So hard to put TG or any speed figure on the Euro's because of pacing. Frankel's front running or pressing styles help the figure, but it's still a highly subjective task to reach the Timeform ratings.

In their defense, TG strongly discounted the Euro Turf horses last year going into the Breeders Cup when most said they were a cut above, and if you listened to Brown there was a jackpot to be made.

So other than last year, how have they been on such predictions for the BC, if anyone knows/remembers?

Not sure but you can actually check this out on the Thorograph web site, its free to do I think they have the BC races archived back to the year 2000

I seem to remember the Euro turf horses doing well last year.

In all of the races where they looked better than the Americans on paper, they got the job done. And with the right horses.

I didn't like anything else they sent over for the Mile besides Goldikova and she was going to be overbet. TG had Court Vision the 11th fastest horse in the race. Not sure how anyone could have found him. He was given up on by Dutrow Jr.

i gave jerry brown a smoked meat sandwitch in 06 at toga.. he said it was a -8.. then he recomended someone buy it.

Hooves, What do I have to do to get you to smoke some meat for me?

Never knew Steve was a switch hitter.

no if you were intrested in smoking hams or venison he may know someone..

sorry.. why doesent beyer do ascot.. and as a side that muttonchops doush gave simeon bray a bull bust the entire time in air today..