Derby replaces graded earnings with point system
 

http://www.courier-journal.com/artic...e-2013-entries

In one of the most significant changes in the 139-year history of the Kentucky Derby, Churchill Downs will determine the 20-horse field for next year’s event through points accrued in selected prep races.

The points system, to be known as the “Road to the Kentucky Derby” and intended to build advance fan interest, will begin this fall, with 2-year-olds able to earn points for the May 4 Derby in designated races.

Churchill’s management believes the new structure, which it plans to announce today, organizes the preps into the equivalent of a regular season and playoffs, to which fans can relate. Ever since the field has been limited to 20 horses, some form of earnings has been used to determine the field. Since 1986, Churchill has used graded-stakes earnings.

INFOGRAPHIC

http://www.courier-journal.com/artic...TS08/306140026

KENTUCKY DERBY PREP SEASON

Late September into February

Points: 10 for first, 4 for second, 2 for third, 1 for fourth

Race Distance Track Location
Royal Lodge mile (T) Newmarket England
Norfolk 1 1/16 miles Santa Anita California
Breeders’ Futurity (S) 1 1/16 miles Keeneland Kentucky
Champagne mile Belmont New York
Grey 1 1/16 miles (S) Woodbine Canada
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile 1 1/16 miles Santa Anita (X) California
Delta Downs Jackpot 1 1/16 miles Delta Downs Louisiana
Remsen 1 1/8 miles Aqueduct New York
Kentucky Jockey Club 1 1/16 miles Churchill Kentucky
CashCall Futurity 1 1/16 miles (S) Hollywood Park California
Sham mile Santa Anita California
Smarty Jones mile Oaklawn Arkansas
Lecomte mile, 70 yards Fair Grounds Louisiana
Holy Bull mile Gulfstream Florida
Robert B. Lewis 1 1/16 miles Santa Anita California
Sam F. Davis 1 1/16 miles Tampa Bay Downs Florida
Withers 1 1/16 miles Aqueduct New York
El Camino Real Derby 1 1/8 miles (S) Golden Gate California
Southwest mile Oaklawn Arkansas


KENTUCKY DERBY CHAMPIONSHIP SEASON

PHASE ONE

Late February to late March

Points: 50 for first, 20 for second, 10 for third, 5 for fourth

Race Distance Track Location
Risen Star 1 1/16 miles Fair Grounds Louisiana
Fountain of Youth 1 1/16 miles Gulfstream Florida
Gotham 1 1/16 miles Aqueduct New York
Tampa Bay Derby 1 1/16 miles Tampa Bay Downs Florida
San Felipe 1 1/16 miles Santa Anita California
Rebel 1 1/16 miles Oaklawn Arkansas
Spiral 1 1/8 miles (S) Turfway Kentucky
Sunland Derby 1 1/8 miles Sunland Park New Mexico


PHASE TWO

Late March through mid-April

Points: 100 for first, 40 for second, 20 for third, 10 for fourth

Race Distance Track Location
Florida Derby 1 1/8 miles Gulfstream Florida
UAE Derby 1 3/16 miles (S) Meydan Racecourse Dubai
Louisiana Derby 1 1/8 miles Fair Grounds Louisiana
Wood Memorial 1 1/8 miles Aqueduct New York
Santa Anita Derby 1 1/8 miles Santa Anita California
Arkansas Derby 1 1/8 miles Oaklawn Arkansas
Blue Grass 1 1/8 miles (S) Keeneland Kentucky


FINAL PHASE

Late April

Points: 20 for first, 8 for second, 4 for third, 2 for fourth

Race Distance Track Location
Lexington 1 1/16 miles (S) Keeneland Kentucky
Derby Trial mile Churchill Kentucky


Key: X-in 2012; T-turf; S-synthetic surfaceNote: Information is based on most recent running of races. The official 2012-13 race dates, purses and distances for each race will be announced by the host tracks.

Poor D Wayne

I love it. Been hoping for something like this for awhile.

A third in the Sunland Derby is as important as a win in the BCJ or Hollywood Futurity?

Do the morons who run CD do ANYTHING right??????

Poor Jim Miller

Really? It seem really poorly thought out to me.

For instance, any top two year old who has a setback late in their 2yo season is going to have difficulty accruing points.

It probably not perfect, but it's a start that can be tweaked.

Doesn't anyone suspect that this may be the hammer that they could use to try and push the anti-Lasix agenda in a few years?

CD isn't exactly thrilled about the lasix ban..

http://www.kentucky.com/2012/06/12/2...ban-would.html

Exactly...could they end up saying that they won't use your race if you let Lasix horses run?

I'm just saying....

People have been bitching about the graded earning system for years. Under this system, Bodemeister probably would have won the Kentucky Derby.

I think it's a fantastic start.
The group that line in the gate on derby day will probably not change much, but this should make the final preps (FL Derby, SA Derby, etc..) much deeper and with better quality.
Also Love the fact that:
• Only one grass race counts
• no races restricted to fillies count
• Races under a mile don't count.

It seems you'll have to earn your way in as a 3-year old, routing on dirt.
That makes the most sense.

IL just got ****ed up and down, not just Hawthorne

I hadn't thought of the filly angle. Not sure I like that.

Just off the top of my head, a few horses who wouldn't have been in the starting gate in recent years if this system were in place would include Homeboykris and Trinneberg.

That must be an oversight on the Illinois Derby. How do you include races like the El Camino Real and skip the Illinois Derby?

They can't possibly exclude the IL Derby, right? That had to have just been an oversight. Why would the UAE Derby be counted and not the IL Derby?

Not that I disagree, but it appears as though the Delta Jackpot will not have the fields they once had. Still will be a money grab for those who try it.

The point system is interesting but at some point some very weird results will produce a bizarre(suspect) Derby starter or two. But that's probably happening already too.

Also, why is the UAE Derby so valuable? The best ever finish by a UAE Derby-Kentucky Derby horse is 8th by Regal Ransom in 2009.

On second glance, this system needs some serious tweaking.

The f'ing Blue Grass will produce a couple guaranteed Derby starters every year (not that this is anything new). We need more Monbas.

So none of the races at Saratoga, including the Hopeful, matter? Wow.

At least that ridiculous Delta Jackpot is no longer a free pass.

Mine That Bird never would have got in on that point system.

War Emblem would have had 0 points coming into the Derby if the Illi Derby doesn't count.

Arazi never would have made it in -- the Breeders Cup Juvie is only 10 points.

What do you expect from them?

Justin Dew is probably the sharpest and most competent person employed by Churchill Downs in the last 25 years.

And I noticed a tweet from Justin Dew directed at the Derby inquiring about the Illinois Derby exclusion.

Others who wouldn't have made the starting gate:

Sea Hero
Charismatic (24 points - 40 points is the expected cutoff)
Giacomo

By my quick calculations, this is what the 2012 Derby field would have looked like using this system:

I'll Have Another 110
Bodemeister 120
Dullahan 111
Went the Day Well 50
Creative Cause 102
Liaison 12
Union Rags 84
Rousing Sermon 26
Hansen 100
Daddy Nose Best 60
Optimizer 23
Alpha 54
El Padrino 62
Done Talking 1? (I think they accidentally omitted the Ill Derby)
Sabercat 30
Gemologist 110
Trinniberg 0
Prospective 64
Take Charge Indy 101
Daddy Long Legs 100

It's not perfect, and there are likely a few tweaks to follow, but in my opinion this shows how horse racing can better market itself without having to spend millions of dollars to do so. The "phases" stuff is a bit abstract, but the concept has a lot of potential.

If you look at it this way it looks pretty good, just eliminating hopeless horses. This system will make the last 2 major preps in CA, NY, FL,ARK, and LA have large loaded fields.

The two things that stick-out to me... The Illinois Derby should be on the list. And the BC Juvenile should be worth more as the season ending championship for 2yo's and the attention it gets leading into the 3yo year.

Clearly, unless a filly has taken on the boys in prior starts, we won't be seeing any fillies in the Derby. That's too bad. The "Oaks or Derby" speculation seems to create some interest in years when there is a very good filly or two around.

I guess I can see why they are not including any sprints (Hopeful, DM Futurity or any short early season races like the Hutchison) but horses like Trinniberg and other sprinters who have run in the Derby have added interest and PACE to the race.

I realize that the BCJ has historically not been a bellwether for Derby success, but to rank it as on par with the Withers or the Delta Jackpot or the El Camino Real seems ... well... strange.

It appears to be an attempt and "manufacturing" the "proper" Derby field rather than allowing it to develop in a more organic fashion.

While this year he had every right to contest the race, a fast sprinter like Trinniberg in the 10 furlong Kentucky Derby doesn't sound too organic to me.

I think there will be a few years in the near future where the field doesn't get anywhere close to 20.

KENTUCKY OAKS PREP SEASON

Points: 10-4-2-1

Fillies’ Mile 1 M (T) Newmarket
Oak Leaf** 1 1/16 M Santa Anita
Alcibiades 1 1/16 M (S) Keeneland
Frizette 1 M Belmont
Mazarine 1 1/16 M (S)
Pocahontas 1 M Churchill Downs
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies 1 1/16 M Santa Anita
Delta Downs Princess 1 M Delta Downs
Demoiselle 1 1/8 M Aqueduct
Golden Rod 1 1/16 M Churchill Downs
Hollywood Starlet 1 1/16 M (S) Hollywood Park
Old Hat 6 F Gulfstream Park
Busanda 1 M Aqueduct
Santa Ynez 6 ½ F Santa Anita
Silverbulletday 1 M 70 Y
California Oaks 1 1/16 M (S) Golden Gate
Santa Ysabel 1 1/16 M Santa Anita
Forward Gal 7 F Gulfstream Park
UAE 1000 Guineas 1 M (S) Meydan
Martha Washington 1 M Oaklawn


KENTUCKY OAKS CHAMPIONSHIP SERIES

First Leg of Series (50-20-10-5)

UAE Oaks 1 3/16 M (S) Meydan
Davona Dale 1 1/16 M Gulfstream Park
Rachel Alexandra 1 1/16 M Fair Grounds
Las Virgenes 1 M Santa Anita
Honeybee 1 1/16 M Oaklawn Park
Cicada 6 F Aqueduct
Bourbonette Oaks 1 M (S) Turfway
Sunland Oaks 1 1/16 M Sunland


Second Leg of Series (100-40-20-10)

Fair Grounds Oaks 1 1/16 M Fair Grounds
Gulfstream Oaks 1 1/8 M Gulfstream Park
Santa Anita Oaks 1 1/16 M Santa Anita
Ashland 1 1/16 M (S) Keeneland
Comely 1 M Aqueduct
Fantasy 1 1/16 M Oaklawn


“Wild Card” (20-8-4-2)

Beaumont 7 F (S) Keeneland

** Will be renamed at a later date.

Arazi was a 4-to-5 favorite in the Kentucky Derby. I believe he was the last odds-on Derby favorite.

That would be hilarious if a would-be odds on favorite can't get into the race because of how they fixed something that truthfully wasn't broke.

Who are the horses who would have got in under this silly point system, that were otherwise excluded from the Derby because of lack of earnings?

Rachel Alexandra opted for the Kentucky Oaks -- but she is another who would have been excluded.

I would be more interested in a 3 year old points series (for fillies as well) that started at the begining of the year and went through the Breeders Cup.

IMO this looks like a way to make the major contenders race against each other so people become familiar with them and rivalries are formed. It also is an attempt to get rid of the hopeless sprinters and the Delta Jackpot winner.

One tweek should be to let the top 2 fillies enter the derby if they meet certain criteria.

3YO's going the two prep route are going to be up against it, that's for sure. Win the Sam Davis and finish third in the Florida Derby? Good luck in the Jim Dandy.

I ask this every year, but what surefire Derby winner was excluded from the Derby because of the earnings system? The only answer anybody ever has is Rock Hard Ten, and he wasn't winning the Derby.

Maybe with a system like this it also pushes trainers to start running their horses a little more often, a two prep season where maybe you have a couple troubled starts after a successful two year old season won't get you in.

I like the filly angle. Why should graded earnings against only other fillies count towards a race dominated by colts. If you have a good filly and want a shot at the Derby run against the boys to get there.

Azeri and any other filly of years past would of or could have been campaigned differently to get in.