union rags
 

can someone help me understand why some of the pundits are saying rags cant get the distance?
rags is supposedly a dual qualifer being out of dixie union and gone west what makes the 1 1/2 any more beyond his reach than the other major players
IHA, dullahan, or for that matter paynter

I would like him better if they tried a set of blinkers on him, been thinking he has needed them since the BC.

From a superficial scan of the pedigrees, Union Rags is by a stallion who bombed in his only attempt at a classic distance (unplaced in the '00 Travers). Likewise, his broodmare sire was demolished by Bet Twice and co. in the '87 Belmont.

I'll Have Another is by a Travers winner, with a broodmare sire who won multiple stakes at classic distances and has sired a BC Classic winner.

Dullahan is a half-brother to a Kentucky Derby winner who placed in both the Preakness and the Belmont.

Paynter is by a multiple winner at classic distances (including the BC Classic and Queen's Plate) out of a mare closely related to dual BC Classic winner Tiznow (who also won the Big Cap and Super Derby).

Of course, specifically for 12f, look no further than Optimizer, who is by champion English Channel, with a Belmont Stakes winning broodmare sire. Load up.

Load up on Optimizer? That is a ballsy call. I respect that.

It was tongue-in-cheek really, but considering recent winners like D'Tara, Commendable, Jazil and Sarava, I wouldn't be quick to mock those who take a flyer on him.

Actually, now that I think about it, Commendable was by Gone West, so Union Rags just moved up on the pedigree chart.

Problem is he comes from too far back. Belmont Stakes favors stalkers

Dicky Downey's Winning Belmont patterns since 1978.

http://www.thedowneyprofile.com/More...ce-1978.415830

People pick horses after saying they had traffic trouble in their last outing, but what appears to be bad racing luck is sometimes a case of just them making their own trouble. Bad breaks aren't always a fluke, for instance. Sometimes when horses get a good trip, it's because they were good enough to make their own luck or overcome what would've been a problem for another horse. The ability to go through a hole vs get squeezed for example. Afleet Alex overcame bad luck through his agility and athleticism.

Zenyatta should've had problems with her size and running style when trying to overcome pace and traffic, but she (almost) always worked it out because she was nimble enough. I like Union Rags, but one reason I didn't pick him in the Derby was a nagging fear that he'd get himself in trouble. Obviously in a 20 horse field the opportunity to then get out of trouble is very unlikely. Presumably a 1 1/2 race would give more time to fix things, assuming he gets the distance, but I still want I'll Have Another to get it, and if he can't it doesn't look like it'll be from lack of ability, stamina, or fitness on his part.

I really am disapointed with myself. I'm totally buying into Union Rags. The power house work article is making me more comfortable. If he's not on or near lead then ill really be stunned.

There may be hope for you yet.

Not likely.
I have lots of issues.

someone should warn matz.

ive bet against rags all year but i think this is his race to lose
he has a race over and the trail must have taken its toll on IHA
if he runs anything close to the juvenile color him gone
thast said his two yo campaign towers over anything on his 3yo resume
jockey change jr's home track and crowd the brief freshening i see shades of easy goer
i am using rags on top and will use IHA as a saver for my drink and food orders

I can take it. Be clever at least. That crap above is so lame, not to mention 4yrs ago.

I was looking at my autographed Michael Matz pancake on head painting this morning.

The silence told me 3rd.

I think recent history shows that fresher horses run better at Belmont. I don't believe we've had a horse who ran in the Preakness win the Belmont since 2005. And before that, you have to go back to Point Given in 2001 to find a Belmont winner who even ran in the Preakness.

I questioned Rags at 10f, so I'm firmly in the camp that believes those bloodlines don't favor him getting better going 12f.

:rolleyes:

speaking of four years ago, is that when you had the bet vs dahoss that you lost? not sure the exact time frame....

I'm in this camp too. He also hasn't showed enough improvement between last year and this year that makes me think he can win this race.

I agree, but you could argue Curlin ran a winning race in the Belmont after winning the preakness

Shackleford and Mucho Macho Man were empty for Belmont last year, but it's hard to condemn Animal Kingdom given the mugging.

First Dude -- 2nd in Preakness -- was 3rd in '10 Belmont, beaten less than a length.

Mine That Bird's '09 Belmont was doomed by Borel, but there was certainly nothing wrong with his effort post Derby-Preakness.

Horses exiting Preakness in the Belmont since '02: 24/1-4-3
Horses exiting 1-2-3 Preakness finish since '02: 16/1-3-3

Not much improvment here.

i'll try not to lose sleep over your lack of approval.

First Dude was 2nd in the Preakness.

When I look at Union Rags efforts as the distances increased.. the diminishing figures and duller performances to me says, "Hey, I love 1 turn races".

He does get the french statue off his back and did run his best race ever over the surface, so he has a couple things going for him...

John Velasquez is a downgrade at this point. If you look since April 1st Leparoux has been a far better rider.

John is an anchor too. Especially if he takes a look at the turf course during the race. Might as well ease the horse at that point.

Steve nice analysis of the belmont in the xpressbet feature

Great stats, Steve. Wondering what the record in that time of Derby runners skipping the Preakness is. Just off the top of my noodle, there's Empire Maker, Birdstone, Jazil, and Summer Bird, and Rags to Riches should half count. Even in the years where there were big upsetters since Point Given in '01 (i.e., Da'Tara, Ruler on Ice), horses like Denis of Cork, Bluegrass Cat, Dunkirk, and Stay Thirsty have gone Derby-Preakness and run second.

If you want your horse on or near the lead, you would want JVR over Frenchy, correct? I could be wrong.

I'm taking Union Rags mainly because of JV getting the mount. No one knows his way around Belmont better than him, and I think he'll have him in a good spot throughout.

I'd rather have Johnny V over Leparoux on any kind of horse, but especially a horse that has early speed.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UPDZSy0MJrA

Thx.. Was certainly disappointed by Alpha coming out as I was gearing towards him. Will get an update filed tomorrow.

Andromeda's Hero skipped and was the distant 2nd to Afleet Alex in '05...

Other Preakness skippers include:

Master of Hounds, Santiva, Nehro, Brilliant Speed last year;
Stately Victor, Ice Box, Make Music for Me in '10;
Mr. Hot Stuff, Chocolate Candy in '09;
Tale of Ekati, Anak Nakal in '08;
I'mawildandcrazyguy, Tiago in '07
Deputy Glitters, Bob and John, Steppenwolfer in '06
Perfect Drift in '02

remember when a hero came back at toga . 3/5 broke frome the gate and stopped..arggg.. you have alink to the express bet write up steve?

If you're on the Union Rags bandwagon, don't miss the archived Hour 1 today for Johnny's extensive comments on him (followed by Angel Cordero's thoughts and Steve Davidowitz' as well). Plus, Johnny relives Rags to Riches' 2007 Belmont win.

DIRECT LINK: http://tinyurl.com/7ajvamb

NOTEWORTHY: Velazquez 6/1-3-1 in Belmont since '06 with problematic Animal Kingdom journey the lone off-board experience...

Remember was well beaten by Flower Alley in the Jim Dandy & Travers.. The only graded stake he ever won was the Fred Hooper. I remember him being in Brass Hat's Donn.

XpressBet Belmont Wagering Guide: http://www.xpressbet.com/BSWG2012

Union Rags is definitely a horse with talent and charisma. I'm torn between wanting him to manifest everything I think he's capable of and, well you know, not wanting him to do it this particular race. ;) Haskin's right, that Champagne indicates so much of what he can do.

If he (or anybody else) puts it together, I hope that I'll Have Another's just that much better on the day (sometimes there's a difference between losing and not happening to win the race but putting in an effort that might've on any other day). The sport and the fans win if we get a Triple Crown or even a denied Crown and everybody brings their A game and goes home safe and sound. We don't get saved by a TC. We get saved when more people understand what they can see and feel in a horse race. Races like Curlin/Rags in the Belmont do that, and with history on the line, that many more people have the opportunity to feel the rush, whatever the outcome. Having my druthers, I'd like to cry like a big baby for a Triple Crown winner. Definitely won't bother trying to rein it in if that happens.