Big Browns crop
 

I've studied a lot of great horses and over a hundred years worth of charts and past performances -- one of the most striking things from my efforts at making figures for past top horses is that the crazy fast figures typically come at age 4.

Generally, that's the true prime and it's the age when the vast majority of freakish performances occur. Often, the most sensationally fast horses in history that I've found just would seem to have a switch flip at age 4.

3-year-olds this time really shouldn't be competitive with the older horses.

Secretariat lost two out of his three dirt races against older horses. A pair of razor sharp 4-year-olds (Onion and Prove Out) beat him.

Affirmed was beaten as a 1-to-2 favorite by razor sharp 4-year-old Seattle Slew in his debut against older horses.

Seattle Slew didn't race against older horses at age 3 (a good thing because a good field of older alw horses could have beaten him) -- but he lost his first stakes test against older horses when a fellow razor sharp 4-year-old named Dr. Patches beat him. Slew made an almost Discovery and Coaltown like progression from age 3 to 4 and became a wickedly fast 4yo.

The star of the triple crown series is rarely competitively with the best performers of the crop the following year. Using recent examples ...

* Mine That Bird won the Derby and was competitive and on-the-board in both the Preakness and Belmont. Quality Road and Blame were much better at 4.

* Afleet Alex almost won a Triple Crown -- fellow 2002 foal Invasor was much better at age 4.

* Smarty Jones almost won a Triple Crown -- fellow 2001 crop members Lava Man and Commentator both ran figures of 120 or better at age 4.

* Funny Cide was alive for a triple crown...he couldn't warm up fellow 2000 crop member Ghostzapper at age 4.

* War Emblem was alive for a triple crown... fellow crop members Mineshaft, Candy Ride, and Medaglia D'Oro would have obliterated him at age 4.

Big Brown's crop really sucked. I think Rail Trip, Gio Ponti, Richard's Kid, and Macho Again might have been the best 4-year-old from it. Am I forgetting anyone?

For dirt males, it was the worst of the last decade. Can we count goldikova?

She was born that year, but like you said, never ran on dirt. Gio Ponti never ran on dirt for that matter, either.

After Big Brown, it was a sad group.

Goldikova was born in 2005

She was born in Europe and she's turf. She doesn't count.

Tizway was in Big Brown's class, but he didn't get really good until his 6yo season.

My only exception to the original post is that Invasor was born in the southern hemisphere and thus wouldn't have had a chance to be comparable as he was 6mos older than Alex.

Everyone raves about "this or that" crop of 3yo's being better or worse than others but unless they run full careers you don't get perspective. Imagine how good it would have been to have Street Sense and Hard Spun continuing on against Curlin after their good 3yo campaigns.

Thoughts on Rachel Alexandra vs. her crop (male/female) at 4?

Rachel Alexandra at age 3:

http://www1.drf.com/eclipse/2009/fin...eoftheYear.pdf


Blame at age 4:

http://www1.drf.com/eclipse/2010/pps/blame.pdf


Quality Road at age 4:

http://www1.drf.com/eclipse/2010/pps/quality-road.pdf

Drugs, no argument, but as a 2YO wasn't War Pass pretty good?

Yes -- without a doubt. His race on the wet track in the Breeders Cup was one of the best performances by a 2yo in a long time.

I was going more towards 3yo triple crown series form VS 4yo form by crop.

Thanks. I kind of figured that.

It was an awful group. Is it possible any horse has ever gone for the Triple Crown off a worse Preakness than Big Brown? Has it ever even been close?

I would have to go through some notebooks and look.

Canonero II would be one strong candidate.

Canonero II ran only 5 Beyer points faster in the Derby than the Twin Spires purse went one race earlier.

I didn't do a number for his Preakness though.

This is the 2nd place finisher to Seattle Slew in the Preakness:




This fine horse was also 7-to-1 against Slew in the Belmont Stakes.

Slew beat some real mediocrities. No doubt. That's why a lot of fig guys were against him until the Fall of 1978.

He and Dr. Patches both ran at Saratoga before the Patterson, and their figs were extremely similar....which is why I bet Dr. Patches.

The weak competition he faced at age 3 really masked his development.

A horse like Discovery was beaten five or six times at age 3 by Cavalcade -- and was 2nd in a lot of major races to him like the Kentucky Derby on almost every occasion. Discovery really wasn't even that good until late in his 3yo season.

He became just about the most invincible horse you could imagine for about five straight months at age 4 and was a great horse as a 4yo and 5yo.

Seattle Slew had no Cavalcade in his crop.

I thought I was the only person thinking that. Hell, I thought he looked like he was about to break down in the Preakness stretch run.

The Bid at 3, beat olders 2 out of 3, The Marlboro and The Meadowlands Cup(NTR), he came in second to Affirmed in The JCGC............

He beat General Assembly and Coastal, both super talented horses, but also both 3YOs, in the Marlboro Cup. Just because it was open to older horses doesn't mean his real competition were older horses.

Star de Naskra was a useful competitor, won The Whitney and was a Champion Sprinter, Cox's Ridge also won major races like The Met Mile, Haskell etc.

To your point Andy, the older horses in the Marlboro were Cox's Ridge, Star De Naskra and Text. General Assembly just came off his record setting performance in the Travers and Coastal was riding a four race winning streak with two Grade 1's. In fact, General Assembly beat Star Se Naskra in the Vosburgh in both of their next starts.

What Slew O' Gold did in the fall of his 3 year old season was remarkable.
How do his figures compare to his 4 years old campaign?

that was my derby pick-loved that horse. and it's the main reason i didn't give bid his due at the time.

A lot of fans felt the same way as you, and did not give The Bid his due, while he was racing, and I still do not understand, I thought he was great back then, and lookin back now, He was simply amazing in what he did.

he was awesome. and i was a kid then, so i chalk it up to youthful emotion! lol hell, people still debate sunday silence vs easy goer, affirmed vs alydar....it's not logic-based.

Here are some of the horses he beat that day.

* General Assembly (15-length Travers winner in a track record setting time at Saratoga that still stands to this day. The good Private Account was 3rd by 26 lengths in that Travers. General Assembly came back and won the Vosburgh against older horses next out.




* Coastal (was another monster speed figure horse -- he had just won the Haskell under 127lbs -- to this day the highest weight assignment carried to victory in the Haskell)




* Cox's Ridge (older horse, won 16 of 28 lifetime)




* Star De Naskra (had crossed the wire first in 7-races in a row, including a victory over Alydar in the Carter)

I was there. Cox's Ridge and Star de Naskra was superior horses. They also didn't hit the board, that's how good those three 3YOs were.

Is is both fun and sad to look back at times when good horses actually raced each other more than once a year.

:tro:

Some recent horses who set or approached monster speed figures at age 4:

Ghostzapper, Formal Gold, Candy Ride, Mineshaft, Congaree, Mazel Trick, Commentator, Lava Man, Lawyer Ron, Midnight Lute, Groovy ran his 132 and 133 Beyers at age 4.

The fastest figure horses in all of history -- Gun Bow, Discovery, Spectacular Bid, Coaltown etc. did by far their best damage at age 4.

Harbinger ran the fastest Turf race I've ever encountered at age 4:




Mossflower is a forgotten horse who also freaked at age 4 and went to the sidelines:



The good filly Mariah's Storm -- dam of Giant's Causeway -- ran a 120 Beyer at age 4. Inside Information freaked at age 4 and won the Breeders Cup Distaff by a pole over a great group.

Lady's Secret obviously freaked in a big way at age 4.

Phar Lap was invincible at age 4 -- winning four different Group 1 races in a span of 7 days including the Melbourne Cup under 138lbs giving big weight all-around.

I have talked about Mossflower quite a bit recently. She's hardly forgotten.

Yeah -- I put her in and didn't mention Dr. Fager and Tom Fool -- who were both supreme monsters at age 4 as well.

I was just about to suggest Dr Fager. His 4yo year was as good as anyone.

Akinemod 119.

Congaree was pretty slow as a 4yo until his final start that he parlayed into a monster 5yo season.

Yep.

The Cigar Mile at age 4 was the race where he broke Spectacular Bid's 22+ year record for fastest Ragozin figure and he also crushed the all-time Thoro-Graph record in that race.

The Thoro-Graph record would be broke and re-broke a few more times -- including once in Mineshaft's lone loss at age 4 -- until Ghostzapper and Midnight Lute re-set them.

By the year 2000 -- the scale was starting to get out of hand -- and horses were becoming much faster at all class levels.

This is one great thread.

The title does it no justice. I could close my eyes and see these races in my mind.

More like see them through your lens eye.

Slew O' Gold was a Seattle Slew half brother to Coastal.

I don't have figures for Slew O' Gold. I looked and couldn't find anything -- and the DRF Archive site is down right now.

Coastal was one of the most underrated 3yo's you will ever see. When he won the Peter Pan Stakes by 13 lengths in his final Belmont Stakes prep -- he ran a 122 figure -- and that figure is based off of the Beyer pars of today...and not the Pars of eight years ago where it would have been a 126 or 127.

Interestingly, in the history of the Haskell, Coastal is the only horse to ever win carrying 127lbs or more. A few have failed to win under that impost (Spend a Buck, Little Current) -- Holy Bull carried 126lbs to victory.

Here is a link where I detailed the process for making old figs and used Coastal's Peter Pan as an example. http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/sho...hlight=Coastal

Being a huge Bid fan, I rather resented Coastal at the time. In retrospect, I have far greater respect for him. Coastal was a serious horse whose historical place has generally been "the spoiler."

Bid would be all but unbeatable today as his one "limitation" was 12f. Of course, it took some serious horses to beat him at 12f. Today, after facing a crew of 9f bred horses in the Belmont, he'd never again need to face such a route. Bid was the only horse that could consistently run races on par with those of Dr Fager. He never just "didn't fire."

The range of deevelopment pointed out in this thread demonstrates why the lack of an "older" campaign was once considered questionable. Today, it behooves many owners to retire a nice 3yo before he might face a dressing down by potential later arrivals.

What might a 4yo campaign from Point Given have looked like? Would he have held his own or would Pleasantly Perfect or Lido Palace or others had his measure? Looking at his 3yo campaign it's hard to think he'd have been less than a monster but alot can happen.