Fever spike knocks Alpha out of Belmont..
 

Grening: Alpha out of Belmont due to temperature.

http://www.drf.com/news/2012-belmont...l-have-another

Alright, I just saved at least $50 dollars..............

Horse just can't stay healthy this spring it seems.

Isn't that the truth. I was thinking Alpha had a chance here for some reason.

And in other Belmont Stakes news -- the connections of I'll Have Another have reached out to Woody Stephens via a Ouija Board to consult them.

They also have hired Ronnie Franklin and whoever the blacksmith was that shod the two Zito horses in the 2004 Kentucky Derby as consultants.

Have they consulted with desormeaux?

They need to find out exactly what Velazquez wants to do on Union Rags and exactly what Paynter's jockey wants to do.

Everything else is nonsense and all the general opinions by anyone won't matter.

Assuming the track speed is playing close to par -- the cold hard facts are that you need to be close to the pace if the half is slower than 48 -- and relaxed patiently off of the pace if it is faster than 48.

Velazquez has two goals on Union Rags -- to get a clear outside trip and to race ride I'll Have Another. Not sure how aggressive he might be.

Not sure what the plan will be on Paynter.

They'll be eatin a lot of dust the final furlong so they should wear their bandanas.

That's interesting because I don't think that Gutierrez has had IHA inside of anyone in the first two legs of the TC. He's been the one outside and in the clear.

Alpha may be this year's Stay Thirsty (hates Churchill)

I think Paynter will try and steal it. Can he carry his speed 1 1/2 miles? Is it conceivable that IHA chases Paynter?

Gutierrez has put 2 picture perfect rides on IHA so far. Doug brings up a good point about someone race riding him.

As far as Paynter goes, I can't see him chasing him. I expect the same type of patient stalking ride. They chased down Bode twice, so I'm guessing that they aren't that concerned about Paynter stealing it on the lead.

http://www.drf.com/events/belmont-stakes

A very close call for IHA.

Ideally -- John Velazquez would like a repeat scenario of the 2007 Belmont.

He had Rags to Riches in the clear and widest -- right behind a 50.32 half mile. He had Curlin down inside of him having no choice but to wait behind that slow pace.

Meanwhile, Garret Gomez was strangling Hard Spun off of the lead. Hard Spun was 3rd early behind very slow fractions and he was pulling against Gomez -- the horse and rider almost in a wrestling match.

That's the best scenario for Union Rags.

It's hard for a lot horses to accelerate when they're caught inside behind slow paces. Especially on dirt. Curlin struggled doing it.

The slow pace would also ruin Dullahan's chances...and Paynter will not win if he's being wrangled back behind a slow pace.

If Paynter wants to be forward and try and steal this race -- it's probably going to be a truly run race and that sets up for Dullahan.

The ideal scenario for Dullahan is:

* Paynter wants to be forward and goes out.

* The pace is faster than 48 seconds

* John Velazquez gets Union Rags in the clear and turns up the pressure on I'll Have Another in the middle of the race.

* Union Rags -- a Champagne winner over the track has great miler potential -- and I'll Have Another is forced to move with him or else get shuffled back and lose position.

If this happens ... Dullahan will have a great opportunity to grind them all down with his plodding late run. Some other plodder will also surprise at long odds if this scenario plays out as well.

Talked pace today and went through the 6f times. They're telling as well with 1:12.4 & up the dividing line for the on/near/stalk winners.

Yep.

Tactics and pace are always extremely huge factors in determining outcomes.

The ideal scenario for I'll Have Another is simply that every horse goes out and is ridden to run its best race by jockeys who aren't trying to ride or force the hand of other horses.

If that happens, and I'll Have Another is healthy and holding form, he's simply not going to lose.

The only two riders in a position to take I'll Have Another out of his game are the jocks on Paynter and Union Rags. Those two jocks are the humans who have the most control in this race.

They will be acting and I'll Have Another's jockey must be able to do a fair job of judging the pace and react.

I agree with your opinions on the pace scenario. But I disagree with the part about race riding IHA. Rags and Dullahan are definitely in it to win it, and should run their own race. But I could see Rags having the same stalking running style, so they should be pretty close all the way around.

Don't forget about Unstoppable U. He's gonna try and run with Paynter. Does this mean the pace gets hotter than normal, or can those 2 settle on something less than blazing? It's probably been brought up before, but the cruel irony might be that Paynter could be the one to spoil this just because of the connections being the same as Bodemeister's lol.

I'll Have Another has a bulls-eye on his back. Absolutely they're going to try and race ride him.

If they can keep him inside, they will.

You really think everyone is just going to be oblivious to the fact that he's in the race?

What I'm saying is, I think this is different than what Jerry Bailey did with Eddington in the Smarty Jones Belmont. Bailey knew Eddington had no shot so he rode him into the ground to rabbit Smarty. A few may try to do that to IHA. I get that.

I just don't think it will be Union Rags.

I was never a massive Eddington fan, but to say he had "no shot" in the 2004 Belmont is a little over the top. By that logic, neither did Rock Hard Ten? Eddington was a millionaire GI winner for God's sake.

Bailey -- a good judge of pace -- tried briefly to hustle Eddington early into a soft pace to prevent Smarty Jones with getting away with murder.

The real idiotic ride in that race came from Rock Hard Ten's jockey. He forced Smarty Jones hand through absolutely sizzling middle fractions.

Rock Hard Ten finished 5th beaten a dozen lengths -- but he unquestionably cost Smarty Jones that race.

Eddington never did anything to even remotely bother Smarty Jones. In fact, I still can't figure out why people find fault with his ride.

Because people don't like Jerry Bailey? That's all I got.

Bailey might have ridden Eddington like he had no shot, but that didn't necessarily mean Eddington actually had no shot.

The opening half mile in that years Belmont was 48.65 (slow pace)

The middle half mile in that years Belmont was 46.79 (an absolutely sizzling midde half!)

The final half mile in that years Belmont was 52.06 seconds (pretty slow)

Basically -- all of the real running happened during the second half mile in that race. And it happened because Rock Hard Ten attacked Smarty Jones at an incredibly pre-mature stage of the race.

I guess I need to re-watch the race. It's just what I thought at the time and agree with people's take on that. If I re-watch it now I'd maybe see it like that.

As for Eddington, he did a lot of his damage after the Belmont if I remember correctly? He came into the race winning the Lone Star race right? But he got most of his wins after the Belmont?

I believe your boy Eddington was third in the Preakness in his start immediately prior to the Belmont. Definitely a no hoper.

And how many lengths did Smarty win the Preakness by? How many? I bet you were drinking the Smarty Kool-aid just like everyone else was after that race

I'm not trying to side-track this thread too much. I'm just saying I think Rags runs his race and doesn't worry about IHA. Matz has him in here thinking he can win this thing his way. So others may try to race ride IHA, but I don't think Rags will do that. All I'm saying.

I'm not sure of your point here, but admitting you were wrong about Jerry Bailey and Eddington in the 2004 Belmont was a good start.

Here was Royal Assault's running line:



He ran the most efficient race possible.

He was about 2 lengths back after a quarter, 3.5 lengths back after a half mile -- when the race horse race started -- he plummeted to 17 lengths back after a mile -- and he gained a lot of ground in the stretch to finish 3rd beaten 9 lengths ahead of horses like Rock Hard Ten, Eddington, and Purge ... three horses that he couldn't dream of even warming up.

I haven't re-watched the race yet. I'm not conceding anything. You still haven't answered the question. How many lengths did Smarty win the Preakness over 3rd place Eddington? Oh. But Eddington was just getting warmed up right? He needed that race. A solid 4th in the Belmont. Solid.

Also notice that in the latter part of 04 and early 05 is when Eddington really did start winning, like I mentioned.

Amazingly, to Birdstone's credit, he only lost 2 lengths of ground during that supersonic middle half mile.

He was 5th by 3 lengths after a half mile and 4th by 5 lengths after a mile.

Five of the nine horses in that race lost more than 11 lengths through the middle half mile.

It was basically where all the real running occurred.

Smarty Jones deserved to win that race, but Birdstone wasn't super lucky. He also had to work hard in the middle and ran ok.

If people went back and actually watched that Belmont, they have to be very surprised at how close Birdstone was the entire race. It was far from a situation where he sucked up into a collapsed race.

watching that race with my pops, I remember going into the stretch, I said to my dad "uh oh. That 4 is gaining on him" I didn't bet the race (beside a souvenir win ticket), so I didn't even know that the 4 was Birdstone until later in the stretch. But did anyone? Was over 30-1 right?

Dude, you claimed a GI winning $1 millionaire had "no shot" in a race, like it was preposterous that Eddington was even entered in the race, and since he was, it was a given that the horse was there to bother Smarty Jones. All of this while apparently forgetting Rock Hard Ten (or Purge for that matter) were even in the race.

And now your argument has changed to something regarding Eddington's performance in the Preakness? I don't think I could make up your line of reasoning if I tried. With all due respect.

Look at Eddington's race record going into the Belmont, and look at the result of the Preakness. No doubt Eddington later that year turned into a very good horse. I'm just saying that going into the Belmont he indeed had no chance on paper. But I thought no one on paper had a shot going into the Belmont.

Eddington's Grade 1 win in the Pimlico Special (his last race), was at 4. He also won the Gulfstream Pk Hdcp (Gr 2) that year. In his 3 yo season he was no closer than 3rd (Gotham, Wood, Preakness and Travers) against the likes of SJ, Birdstone and Tapit. He was 4th in the Jim Dandy and Belmont. Not an outrageous no hoper, I always thought that given his running style, was not helped by his Belmont ride. To Doug's point, he may have been closer to the lead in the 1st half mile simply because the pace was so slow, and not because he was being asked by JDB.

The day of that Pimlico Special, Ashado figured out a way to lose to Silmaril, which led to a woman sitting next to me in the sub-50 degree Baltimore weather that day to scream "come on, don't lose to that Maryland bred NAG!!!!"

Bailey's ride gave Eddington no chance to win, but he (and every other jockey) are notorious for doing that on a regular basis. From the start, it seemed like Solis was desperate to just screw over Smarty Jones however he could with Rock Hard Ten.

Did Solis ever ride Rock Hard Ten after that race? That was as bad a ride as we will ever see in a big race.

i am sure worse rides are right around the corner.

Who'd ever have thunk that a sentence would be formed that contained the words idiotic, Rock Hard Ten, and jockey?