I'll Have Another's value as a stallion if he sweeps the Triple Crown
 

I've heard people saying I'll Have Another would be worth more as a stallion prospect than Bodemeister or Creative Cause if he won the Triple Crown.

I giggled at this ... but it seems like a lot of people believe this and maybe I'm wildly underestimating what a Belmont win would do for his stud value?

Would a Belmont win really drive his stud value higher than that of Bode and CC?

Keep in mind -- Creative Cause is by Giant's Causeway out of a Grade 1 winning millionaire race mare (Dam took the Apple Blossom when Ashado bombed) Creative Cause was a precocious 2yo who won his debut going 5fs with a huge figure. He was BC Juvie placed. And he's trained by Mike Harrington ... who looks like Arthur Wendell or Janet Del Castillo compared to guys like Baffert and O'Neill.

Bodemeister is by Empire Maker out of a super talented Storm Cat mare who won her debut in a stakes races and took a Grade 3 second-time out. Bodemeister's 2nd dam is a multiple Graded Stakes winner by A. P, Indy out of a Roberto mare.

With I'll Have Another -- you've got a son of Flower Alley who was an $11,000 yearling ... and even though he worked fairly fast at an OBS 2yo sale -- he sold for peanuts again. Silver Charm and Skip Away were both OBS cheapies...great horses, but terrible sires.

Someone on Pace Advantage said I'll Have Another will be worth $80 million if he wins the Belmont. If that's even 1/4th true -- we live in a world gone mad.

If you bother to look past the first generation of the pedigrees you'll see that I'll Have Another has a solid pedigree from a deep family through the years.

It's a nice cheap distance pedigree.

However, it's not a desirable pedigree for a stallion like the sensational ones that Bode and Creative Cause have.



The dam was 1-for-1 and the 2nd dam was a useful horse who finished up at Fort Erie.

The last seven who came to the Belmont with a shot at the Triple Crown (Big Brown, Smarty Jones, Funny Cide, War Emblem, Charismatic, Real Quiet, Silver Charm) -- obviously FC was a gelding and Big Brown first crop are only 2yos -- but the other five make a pretty shabby collection of stallions.

I'd have to think Bode and Creative Cause would have a ton more appeal regardless of what happens in the Belmont.

Flower Alley stands for $7,500 right now. How much bump might he get from being the first to sire a triple crown winner in 34 years?

Real Quiet was at least useful.

But yeah, anyone who thinks IHA will be worth more than Bode is using pretty simple minded thinking.

At least in the long run, it's pretty certain Bode will be the more valuable stallion.

I think Creative Cause might have the most appeal of any of them (at least to me) ...Bode included.

Hansen has a real bang-up female family.

* Hansen's dam was claimed for $5,000 by Dr. Kendall Hansen. Made her final start at Mountaineer.

* Hansen's 2nd dam routinely ran for $5,000 claiming tags at River Downs.

* Hansen's 3rd dam was a 0-for-11 Arkansas bred.

I'd like to hear people like Cannon Shell, ParisX etc's take on this... as they would have a better gauge on the market for these horses as stallion prospects.

There is no way of knowing which of these horses will succeed as a stallion in the long run. Impeccable breeding can get you a plugged nickel. On trck brilliance can get you a smarty jones.
I have to think being (if he wins) the first tc winner in a generation would be a huge draw. Whether it lasts is another story. Also, much like our emblem when war emblem had his big year, flower alley will get some good mares...whether he becomes our emblem nd fades into obscurity is another question mark right now.

Yes -- which is why horses like Bodemeister and Creative Cause should have the edge as stallion prospects -- because they have two VS one.

It's not as extreme as say Bernardini VS Invasor ... but it seems clear-cut to me.

The question is will a Triple Crown label negate that. The breeding market is a good deal fashion and snake-oil.

Theres always a chance he could be a huge sire like seattle slew turned out to be.
I think a huge part of his potential success in the shed will depend on who cuts the stud deal and has the right mares to support him.

Or he could end up in oklahoma.

I just figure that if he wins the belmont, hell get a huge deal and the biggest stud fees of the crop the first couple years. After all, i dont think smarty was the best bred of that crop, but look how things went down when stud deals were being made.

As for long term success, its a crapshoot for any of them.

That would shock me -- and I was giggling at it when I first heard it ... but it seems to be like an almost universal opinion on boards. So, maybe I'm dead wrong.

I just figure the novelty of the situation will drive up demand. I also think that flower alley didnt get off to a great start because the last few years havent been kind to many of the new studs, with people turning to tried and true successes to spend their money. I think fa has upside. And i feel that since its been so long without a tc winner, that when one appears, itll be huge.
Smarty jones got a huge deal, and didnt manage to win...i can just imagine the euphoria if this one wins it.

So if the other two are so good,and both have been whooped by IHA twice,what does that say about the other two if they were so regally bred??

If only he does and gets bred to both Zenyatta and Rachel Alexandra... that would be swell.

In the old days -- the DRF would have big features on highly anticipated new sires.






Fortunately --- they had a fearless and kind of Dickish columnist named Salvator to write stuff like this in them...

They haven't been "whooped" by IHA. Bodemeister has twice been edged by him -- and Creative Cause was beaten only a nose by him at 9 furlongs in the SA Derby.

The vast majority of racing in this country occurs at 9 furlongs or less.

Horses like Skip Away, Formal Gold, and Silver Charm beat the living hell out of horses like Distorted Humor and Arch.

They weren't bred to be attractive stallion prospects. Invasor beat Bernardini -- and everyone knew Invasor was going to be a terrible stallion. Bernardini was regally bred and had a monster edge.

The best stallions like Storm Cat, Mr. Prospector, and Danzig are typically under accomplished and fragile speed balls who can barely stay a mile.

Distorted Humor was a sprinter -- and when he would step up and take on a Skip Away or Formal Gold he would get beaten to a pulp. Elusive Quality was a sensational performer sprinting -- he failed to win a dirt route after repeated tries.

The top stamina sires like A. P, Indy, Street Cry, Arch, and Awesome Again are always regally bred.

What will his value be if he sweeps Triple Crown, adds some late season G'1s and topples the BC Classic?

The older horses sure aren't much to get excited about this year... I can see this happening.

Whirlaway is the only horse in history to officially sweep the Triple Crown Series and win the Travers Stakes.

So -- that would be a grand slam. As obviously would the Breeders Cup Classic on his home track at Santa Anita.

However, at the end of the day, this horse will never have a fashionable stallion pedigree. He will never have "looks" ... and if I'll Have Another really did have looks ... he wouldn't have only fetched $11,000 as a yearling at auction -- and re-sell again for peanuts after his under-tack work at OBS where he showed respectable speed.

Handicapping the chances of any horse as a sire is always going to be a guessing game -- regardless of what anyone says. That's why I think you have to take the 'a chain is only as strong as its weakest link' approach. A horse like a Bernardini or A. P. Indy was always a safer bet because he had no weak links. Horses like Skip Away and Silver Charm were two of the best race horses I've seen since 1990 ... and they both had unfashionable breeding and sold cheaply at OBS 2yo auctions like I'll Have Another did.

I suppose if factors like his looks and pedigree are neglected because of race accomplishments -- it's possible he could demand WAY more money than I think is reasonable. Doesn't mean he can't be a good sire either...but the odds aren't as much in your favor.

I think that was my point. He will command far more than what is reasonable....the trick is what happens after the faols start dropping, hitting sales, etc.

Fupeg for instance has impeccable looks, breeding, and won the biggest race in north america, but is perceived as a failure at stud. They can have everything go their way (which is why i mentioned plugged nickel earlier) and be a dismal stallion. Id have to think if you had to bet thok youd go with bode ahead of iha for who will succeed. But therea no giuarantees...look at tapit, who thought hed turn out like he did?

Until Bodemeister and Creative Cause start winning some black type races this discussion is a no contest.

You realize that both of them are GI winners, right?

Here are all the ungelded males with 10 or more Grade 1 wins:

Spectacular Bid - 14 Grade 1 wins
Affirmed - 14 Grade 1 wins
Cigar - 11 Grade 1 wins
Skip Away - 10 Grade 1 wins

Spectacular Bid was syndicated for a then-record $22 million. Skip Away was syndicated for $18. Affirmed was syndicated for $14.4 million. Cigar was reportedly going to be syndicated for a record $75 million by Coolmore.

Skip Away and Spectacular Bid sired a bunch of complete goats. Cigar shot blanks. The breeding shed was the only place where Affirmed couldn't compete with Alydar.

The dam of Spectacular Bid was a fast sprinter on the No. Cal fair circuit.

The dam of Cigar was a 0-for-7 maiden.

The dam of Affirmed was 23-5-2-3 and made 21K in earnings.

The dam of Skip Away was 37-5-1-6 and made 66K

They both have good breeding and black type...and many still think bode is the better horse. Just like some thought alydar was better, or easy goer. Of course alydar won the battle of the barn, easy goer on the other hand didnt.

While Bode and CC may prove to better sires, those with deep pockets won't let the first Triple Crown winner in thirty plus years go cheap. I'm sure they will be willing to gamble that IHA could be the real deal off the track, as well.

In my years of following this stuff, I've noticed that there is one thing than can offset a weak pedigree when it comes to making a stallion.

That would be high speed with a great turn of foot. Accompanied by the ability to be really good at a young age. This could easily explain low-bred horses like Candy Ride, Indian Charlie, Slew, etc. becoming top level stallions.

Skip Away really didn't show blazing speed until later in his career. I think the only horse I was badly off on when assessing his stallion potential was Gentlemen.

Barbaro too I guess, but that's different. I thought he was going to be the next Seattle Slew or AP Indy as a sire, when I saw him as a 2yo.

Barring premature retirements, I bet Bode will have a higher stud fee. Especially in five years.

This. It's been so long since we've had a Triple Crown winner that people (including me) are thinking simplistically on this. His achievements on the track more than cancel out his mediocre bloodlines.

I mean I get what you're saying. CC and Bodemeister are better bred and if you're in the know and really follow this you'd think they'll be better sires. But winning a triple crown is the ultimate achievement, so that's why I'll Have Another will get a huge fee if he wins.

Now if he doesn't, then I could see Bodemeister getting a bigger fee.

This discussion/debate is also similar to the Street Sense/Hard Spun/Curlin year. Eventhough SS won the Derby, and Curlin was a monster, a lot of people (including me) think Hard Spun has the most potential as a sire.

Winning the TC will probably make him worth $30 million or so. I think the Big Brown numbers would be the best guide though there was a lot of smoke and mirrors involving him and his value.

Of course that number goes up if he is able to hold his form throughout the rest of the year and knock off a couple more big races. My question is does winning the TC make him an automatic HoY?

That was a debate in the year that Affirmed won. Seattle Slew bested him in the Woodward, I think. Affirmed's saddle slipped in the Jockey Club Gold Cup, which was won by Exceller. I remember reading Affirmed's owner or trainer remarks; something to the effect that Affirmed already earned Horse of the Year because of the Triple Crown. He had already raced at Saratoga and was there for the dances in the fall, against older top level horses.

Omaha was the only horse to win the Triple Crown and not be voted or awarded Horse of the Year.

However, Discovery (the horse voted Horse of the Year over Omaha) was incredible as a 4-year-old and had probably the greatest four month stretch in American horse racing history.

Discovery was 13-11-1-1 over the 4 month stretch and destroyed Omaha despite carrying 9lbs more.

In his two defeats...

* he was 2nd by 1.5 lengths to 4-year-old Top Row at 9.5fs but carried 29lbs more (139lbs VS 110lbs) -- Top Row was a 12-time stakes winning male who made over 200K in the 1930's and won top races like the Santa Anita Handicap.

It's an impossibility for any horse to give 29lbs away to an elite older 4-year-old colt going 9.5 furlongs.

* in his other defeat -- he was beaten a neck by Top Row in the Mass Cap. This time, Top Row only had a 22lbs weight break. Whopper nosed him out for 2nd and got a 30lbs weight break from Discovery. Whopper was an 11-time stakes winning male who was 2nd in the Met Mile.

In the Bloodhorse Top 100 horses of the 20th century -- Discovery was voted the #37 best horse. War Admiral was voted the #13 best horse. However, they both raced at around the same time --- and it was documented that serious handicappers would have laughed at anyone who considered War Admiral or Seabusicut to be better horses than Discovery.

i think so too.
i just believe out of the gate when they all hit the shed, that iha will have the highest fee-if he should win the tc. if he wins that, he's pretty much a lock to win horse of the year as well. when you look at deals for lesser bred horses over the years who came oh so close, you can't help but think of what will be if one wins it all.
in the long run, you'd think a better bred horse would be the better sire-but as i've said all along, there are no guarantees.

i think so....look at affirmeds year for a good idea of how it would go down. and there are no seattle slew's in the older group this year.

Yikes.

Creative Cause beat I'll Have Another at 6.5 furlongs in the Best Pal at age 2. Only a nose seperated them at 9 furlongs in the Santa Anita Derby.

Basically -- uncommonly run classic distances are the only thing separating these two horses on actual racing ability. 99.5% of the races in this country are run at 9fs or less.

In terms of the other areas -- Creative Cause owns I'll Have Another. Comparing the pedigrees is like comparing a $100 steak to a McDouble from McDonald's.

In terms of looks -- I assume Creative Cause is better looking. Horses with route pedigree don't work 10.40 and sell for peanuts if they have looks.

And -- Doug O'Neill VS Harrington.

For someone to pay as much for I'll Have Another as they would for Creative Cause -- they'd have to be absolutely deranged.

you are most likely correct. but my only point all along has been that the novelty of being a tc winner will drive demand, and his fee. i almost hope he'll win the thing just to see what happens with all that. i remember all the craziness accompanying smarty jones in the weeks after winning the preakness. i'm thinking his deal was around 30 mill or so...can only imagine if iha manages to win the belmont. and isn't he undefeated this year? well, for now...

If IHA wins the TC-
What people should think:
What people will think:
Only thing i'll add- the h2h matchups between CC, IHA, and Bodemeister are the reason I actually hit the Derby exacta (but win $ on CC). Is CC digressing, IHA improving? I think CC will wake up on turf or synthetic, but your guys' theory for how 2 months ago they were noses apart and now they're 10 lengths apart?

Here was the I'll Have Another VS Creative Cause match-up at 6.5 furlongs.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8FZrE2QKdl0

The only scenario that denies IHA from winning HOY this year is Paynter beating him in the Belmont, Paynter beating IHA maybe another time in Socal or a race like the Travers/Haskell, and then Paynter winning the BCC.

He's already got three grade one wins this year, which by todays standards is nearly miraculous.

Perhaps a combination of thungs....iha maturing, increasing distances, running styles, cc on a less than ideal (for him) surface?

Are you insinuating that an N1X allowance winner who trounced an over-matched field is going to win the Belmont and continue to run the table the rest of the year?

No, unless that happens, then yes.

I was just throwing out the only scenario I can come up with that has greater than a 1% chance of happening. That is for IHA not getting HOY.