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-   -   Over/Under Belmont Field Size? (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=46803)

clambeau 05-19-2012 06:29 PM

Over/Under Belmont Field Size?
 
Seven ? I'm just asking....

santana 05-19-2012 07:20 PM

I will take the over....I couldnt tell you who possibly the new shooters could be at this point...
This looks like a legit TC threat.....Till bodie goes wire to wire.

pmayjr 05-19-2012 07:24 PM

I think Bode doesn't go to the Belmont. I just hope they don't retire him. But I'll still take the over.

clambeau 05-19-2012 07:44 PM

Jeff Siegel (HRTV) says Paynter a Preakness possible...Union Rags, Dullahan...that's four...Does Zito have anything lurking in the wings? I think I'm going with the "under" (mind you, I made the "line" so not sure if I can pick)

Last Three TC Field Sizes

1973 - 5
1977 - 8
1978 - 5

So much for the "good ol days" of great big field sizes

South Beach Luv 05-19-2012 08:07 PM

At least Union Rags will take some $. I'll Have Another will be the favorite for the first time in his racing career but he won't be 1/5.

3kings 05-19-2012 08:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by clambeau (Post 862419)
Jeff Siegel (HRTV) says Paynter a Preakness possible...Union Rags, Dullahan...that's four...Does Zito have anything lurking in the wings? I think I'm going with the "under" (mind you, I made the "line" so not sure if I can pick)

Last Three TC Field Sizes

1973 - 5
1977 - 8
1978 - 5

So much for the "good ol days" of great big field sizes

I think you will get at least 8. Things are different now, people will run truely hopeless horses just to say they had a runner in the triple crown.

clambeau 05-19-2012 08:21 PM

"For What it's Worth Dept. ...
Here's rundown of last 3 Triple Crowns of # horses defeated by TC winner

1973 Secretariat - KD Beat 12 horses; Preakness-4; Belmont-4 TOT=20
1977 Seattle Slew - KD-14; PS-8; BEL-4; TOT=26
1978 Affirmed - KD-10; PS-6; BEL-4 TOT=20

2012 IHA - KD-19; PS-10 TOT (so far) = 29

clambeau 05-19-2012 08:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by South Beach Luv (Post 862427)
At least Union Rags will take some $. I'll Have Another will be the favorite for the first time in his racing career but he won't be 1/5.


Might be the last Grade I race he runs in if he keeps running "95's" (Union Rags, that is)

helicopter11 05-19-2012 08:58 PM

any fillies that can fill some spots?

South Beach Luv 05-19-2012 08:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by clambeau (Post 862434)
Might be the last Grade I race he runs in if he keeps running "95's" (Union Rags, that is)

That is doubtful, unless he is retired.

pmayjr 05-19-2012 09:02 PM

Ok...

I'll Have Another, Dullahan, and Union Rags are in.

I think Baffert/Zayat will enter Paynter in the Belmont instead of Bodemeister.

Does Hansen try? Prospective?

What about the top 2 or 3 from the Peter Pan- Mark Valeski, Right to Vote, and Street Life

Does Asmussen get crazy and contemplate entering Isn't He Clever?

I think there will be over 7

helicopter11 05-19-2012 09:06 PM

dont forget optimizer. Lukas is on a Graded stakes win high after today

pmayjr 05-19-2012 09:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by helicopter11 (Post 862445)
dont forget optimizer. Lukas is on a Graded stakes win high after today

Ugggh... Send him to the turf already

deltagulf 05-19-2012 09:18 PM

yes baffert already said bode won't run in belmont

dylbert 05-19-2012 09:20 PM

FROM LEFT FIELD: If no one but IHA entered, would walkover qualify as winning Triple Crown?

FROM PADDOCK: Vanity drives TC field size now. So, I would take OVER.

FROM WINNER'S CIRCLE: I have been Bode-DNB supporter who is now on-board IHA express. IHA looked like he could have gone an additional 3/16 today and no one would have closed into him. Might the TC drought finally end in 21 days?

clambeau 05-19-2012 09:22 PM

Oh, there will be a lot of guys contemplating running, but with Belmont's purses so juicy, and Saratoga coming soon, if you have a really good horse, dont ruin him (or her) just to "enter" the Belmont, with little or no chance of winning.

Just thought it would be "fun" for something to think about this week before the REAL madness starts, and I will take the "under" to keep my losing streak alive

Fulla Sheets 05-19-2012 09:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by clambeau (Post 862419)
Jeff Siegel (HRTV) says Paynter a Preakness possible...Union Rags, Dullahan...that's four...Does Zito have anything lurking in the wings? I think I'm going with the "under" (mind you, I made the "line" so not sure if I can pick)

Last Three TC Field Sizes

1973 - 5
1977 - 8
1978 - 5

So much for the "good ol days" of great big field sizes


Last Five Attempted Triple Crown Field Sizes

1999- 12
2002- 11
2003- 6
2004- 9
2008- 9

Alan07 05-20-2012 12:01 AM

O/U at attendance - 100,000

clambeau 05-20-2012 12:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alan07 (Post 862471)
O/U at attendance - 100,000

counting the horses?

clambeau 05-20-2012 12:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by clambeau (Post 862475)
counting the horses?

YES!

I'D SAY 150+

tywizard 05-20-2012 08:02 AM

Looks like 13 are expected according to DRF.

LARHAGE 05-20-2012 08:50 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pmayjr (Post 862449)
Ugggh... Send him to the turf already


Lukas will try anything he can to get Hamazing Destiny and Skyring in as well as Optimizer, there has to be a loophole somewhere :)

NTamm1215 05-20-2012 09:33 AM

Here's the rundown of possibles for the Belmont

Optimizer - Eligible for a N1X
Paynter - 0-2 in graded stakes; big fig win courtesy of very slow pace
Alpha - Trounced in Derby
Atigun - Just won N2X with 89 BSF
Dullahan - 0-4 on conventional dirt
Five Sixteen - Eligible for N1X
Guyana Star Dweej - Eligible for N1X
Mark Valeski - Perfect trip Peter Pan winner
Rousing Sermon - 0 for last 7
Stealcase - Eligible for N1X
Street Life - Listed stakes winner over former claimer; lifetime top BSFS of 92
Union Rags - Lifetime top BSF of 95. Serial excuse finder.

pmayjr 05-20-2012 01:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NTamm1215 (Post 862528)
Here's the rundown of possibles for the Belmont

Optimizer - Eligible for a N1X
Paynter - 0-2 in graded stakes; big fig win courtesy of very slow pace
Alpha - Trounced in Derby
Atigun - Just won N2X with 89 BSF
Dullahan - 0-4 on conventional dirt
Five Sixteen - Eligible for N1X
Guyana Star Dweej - Eligible for N1X
Mark Valeski - Perfect trip Peter Pan winner
Rousing Sermon - 0 for last 7
Stealcase - Eligible for N1X
Street Life - Listed stakes winner over former claimer; lifetime top BSFS of 92
Union Rags - Lifetime top BSF of 95. Serial excuse finder.

But yet history is against I'll Have Another lol. You'd like to think, just like in Smarty and Big Brown's situations that he'd be able to win this race easy. But some horse will really make him earn it

pba1817 05-20-2012 02:52 PM

Big Brown failure was a proof there is a God...

Smarty Jones really got a suspect ride from Elliott and was hard race ridden by Stevens(Rock Hard Ten) and Bailey(Eddington) who both had zero left in the lane, but seemingly achieved their personal goal of taking the race to Smarty early.

tector 05-20-2012 03:11 PM

Shouldn't the connections of IHA make sure their jock gets a few trips around that big effing oval before Belmont Day to make sure he has a chance to get the hang of it? It is thoroughly unique in the US.

Kasept 05-20-2012 03:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tector (Post 862645)
Shouldn't the connections of IHA make sure their jock gets a few trips around that big effing oval before Belmont Day to make sure he has a chance to get the hang of it? It is thoroughly unique in the US.

They made sure he rode at Churchill and Pimlico, so they certainly will do the same at Belmont. Likely to see him on some Hennig (longtime with Reddam and 'Another' in his BEL barn) horses I'd imagine leading up to Saturday.

ajphilly 05-20-2012 06:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pba1817 (Post 862634)
Big Brown failure was a proof there is a God...

Smarty Jones really got a suspect ride from Elliott and was hard race ridden by Stevens(Rock Hard Ten) and Bailey(Eddington) who both had zero left in the lane, but seemingly achieved their personal goal of taking the race to Smarty early.

Stevens rode Rock Hard Ten in the Preakness, but Alex Solis had the mount in the Belmont and went after Smarty.


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