Early Breeders' Cup Projections...
 

....I know we are a month and a half out, but here are the best horses in each division at this point in my opinion...chime in with yours...lets have some fun:

Juvenile Fillies:

Dreaming of Anna

Juvenile:

Scat Daddy

Mile:

Librettist

Distaff:

Happy Ticket

F & M Turf:

Gorella

Sprint:

Henny Hughes

Turf:

Shirocco

Classic:

Bernardini



....Lets see how many I can jinx....lol :D

Gorella is pointing for the Mile.

Also, as of now, Shirocco is pointing for the Classic.

I think Scat Daddy ran a better race in the hopefull than what it looked like he had to check got shuffeled back and still pass the horses he could see.

JF - Point Ashley

Juv - Scat Daddy

Mile - Gorella

Distaff - Pine Island

Sprint - Bordonaro

Turf - Shirocco

FM Turf - The best Euro entered

Classic - Bernardini

I know that...thanks for pointing that out...I'll still stick with the horses I think are the best of each division...much can happen between now and then....Shirocco would get DROWN in the Classic and I think Fabre will come to that realization because he is a rational person, and if the right players show up for the Mile, Gorella would have the best shot at winning the F&M Turf IMO because there is only one horse she'd have to beat in that race and it is a worn-out Ouija Board - instead of trying to beat the best male milers in the world...just my opinion....

..you forgot to list your division leaders...I hear about all of this stepping out and making bold statements but i don't see as much as I hear about it....

Please, I have made more public bold predictions than anyone around here, and I have the Dunce Cap to prove it!

Making predictions concerning the 2YOs seems absurd at this point as there are still many important races to be run and fewer that have already been run. I do have to admit I was very impressed by what I saw from Nobiz Like Shobiz however.

I honestly don't pay a huge amount of attention to the BC, especially this early, so my " bold predictions " would be too close to " stabs " for my liking.

However, to be nice, I will take....Commentator in the Sprint, some Euro in the mile or Aragon ( is that his name? ), Hurricane Run in the Turf and Bernardini in the Classic. I already gave my Distaff thoughts and at this point I would prefer one of the 3YO fillies, Lady of Venice or Wait it Out, in the F&M Turf.

I will probably end up betting against them all

Shirocco would get DROWN in the Classic and I think Fabre will come to that realization because he is a rational person

ARCANGUES!

I imagine that Europe will send a weaker squad than usual. Whilst I would love to see Sander Camillo in the BCJF, as I believe she may be the best 2yo filly I've ever seen, I very much doubt she'll make the trip. We don't seem to have a standout juvenile colt, with Teofilo certain not to cross the Atlantic. It goes without saying that we've not got a sprinter within 10lbs of the US finest, although the one who possibly could make an impact, Iffraaj, I'd rather see in the Mile. That may mean taking on George Washington, however, and that may make for race of the day. I imagine Ouija Board would have every chance of regaining her BCFMT crown. I would look to oppose Hurricane Run in the Turf, but, as of yet, I'm not sure what with!

Sprint-Henny Hughes
Distaff-Island Fashion
Mile-Aragorn
Turf-Hurricane Run
F/M Turf-Ouija Board
Classic-Discreet Cat

The Pletcher/J.V horses will be over-respected, meanwhile a Pletcher/Gomez horse will go at longer odds and do much better (Octave?). (I swear TAP is using J.V. as a decoy to cash big on his other horses :D )

Juvenile Fillies - Kauai Calls

Juvenile - Tiz Wonderful

Mile - Aragorn

Distaff - Pine Island

F & M Turf - Alexandrova / Wait A While exacta

Sprint - Henny Hughes

Turf - Cacique (Hasili progeny further take claim upon the BC)

Classic - Bernardini

Juvy Fillies: Dreaming of Anna

Juvy: Not sure of this one yet.

Mile: Gorella

FM Turf: Ouija Board

Sprint: Commentator

Distaff: Pine Island

Turf: Hmmm.... Not sure on this one either.

Classic: Drifty!!!!!!


JMO though.

Isn't the FM Turf at 11 furlongs this year since Churchill can't run 10 on the turf? Why would they even consider running Gorella at 11 furlongs against Ouijia Board and Alexandrova? I could understand taking a shot at 10 but 11 would be insane. I'd love it if she went in the FM Turf cause apparently people would waste their money betting on her but I don't think there is a decision to make, she will go in the Mile.

She would win either race she entered, but probably going to go in the mile. She should have won it last year, but a "not so great" ride cost her. But that is horse racing.

Juvenile Fillies:
Dreaming of Anna

Juvenile:
Unbridled Express

Mile:
Aragorn

Distaff:
Happy Ticket

F & M Turf:
Alexandrova

Sprint:
Friendly Island :D

Turf:
English Channel

Classic:
Perfect Drift

Yep...its 11 panels, which I don't see as a concern...she is one of those throw-back turf horses who will trot around there and give you that wicked final 3/8 of a mile bursting turn of foot no matter if she is going a mile or 11 panels...I really believe after watching her Beverly D. that the extra ground won't hurt her...you're acting like there will be a HUGE difference between 10 and 11 furlongs and I just don't agree....

I'd rather take on my own generation than have to face the best boys Milers in the world...remember, last year was a WEAK year in the Mile with an American winning it...I even bet Artie - that is how weak it was because I never bet Americans in that race......it appears that Gorella will have to match strides with the likes of George Washington, Proclamation and Librettist this year and SHE WILL NOT like doing that if they choose to run her in the Mile.....IMO

I'll trust Patrick's judgement. I think the added distance is a HUGE concern and to just assume that she will have that explosive kick regardless of the distance is a mistake.

The mile could be tougher, though I don't think the European contingency is considered all that tough this year ( let's see if George Washington can rebound to his pre-injury form ), but racing at the proper distance is FAR mre important than worrying about the possibly minor difference in field quality. Anyway, Ouiji Board could well be tougher than any Euro in the mile, and the same owner as Gorella has Lady of Venice.

If I thought she was fine at ten furlongs then the extra furlong wouldn't be a big deal. However, I think she is best at a mile, still very good at nine furlongs, and ten would be the limit for her. In that case the difference between ten and eleven furlongs does become huge.

I'll say this then...is they elect to run her in the Mile instead of the F&M Turf then she won't win a BC event...she won't beat all 3 Euros I mentioned earlier...

I really am a big fan of hers...I think she is a cool horse and she deserves a BC win...I just feel she'll have a better chance against her own kind...hell, Ouija Board couldn't even beat Intercontinental last year and she is a year older now and Alexandrova is a 3YO....easier competition than the 3 top male Euro Milers I would say.....

A pretty strong argument could be made that Ouiji Board is better this year than last. And, as for not running Intercontinental down, a horse I loathe by the way, when an odd horse wires a field it usually makes the entire race suspect and the result is hardly indicative of the respective abilities of the field.

I would still rather face Ouija Board and Alexandrova rather than Ifraaj, Librettist, Proclamation, Aragorn and George Washington....just saying....

If it's the wrong distance it doesn't matter who she is facing. I can't believe you actually think Gorella rates to be even close to as good at 1 3/8 as she is at 1 1/8 miles. There is a WORLD of difference IMO.

Ad Valorum won one of Europe's big mile Group 1 races recently. Sorry if I'm not shaking in my boots about the milers coming from there. Look, I'm the first to just say " I'll take the Euros " for this race, but I don't think this year's contingent is looking very strong.

Everybody who understands racing from accross the pond knows that Ad Valorem is second or third tier...he is hardly of concern...

And, how come everybody can come on here with confidence and say that they KNOW Gorella is not as good at 1 3/8 miles...the last time I checked, she hadn't raced at that distance ever....that is just your perception, but the truth is that she has been just as impressive and accomplished going the furthest she's gone as she has going a mile...you might want to review her PPs again....

Everybody also thought that Intercontinental was a miler last year - including her trainer - and yet she romped in the F&M Turf...

Early Predictions

Juvenile Fillies...Allude

Juvenile...Circular Quay

Mile...Gorella

Filly and Mare Turf...Ouija Board

Distaff...Happy Ticket

Sprint...Discreet Cat

Turf...Shirocco

Classic...Bernardini

These selections are full of chalk. It's a good thing that I will probably change my mind 500 times before BC day gets here. I like price horses, not chalk , but I also like to win my bets:D , and right now, this is where I stand.

RATINGS:
Ouija Board 125
Alexandrova 123+
Gorella 122

I feel that the BCFMT is the race where the Euros are strongest.

Ouija Board has been campaigned with greater regularity than in previous seasons, but runs with credit race in race out. The 11f trip will prove ideal, she is amenable as regards her positioning through a race, and is a certainty to finish in the first 3: I'd put my life on that!

Alexandrova could scarcely have been more impressive in winning the Epsom/Irish/Yorkshire Oaks, seemingly well within herself. She relaxes well during her races and has a lethal turn of foot. She is a league apart amongst 3yo fillies (and the 3 4yos she faced at York).

Gorella switches off so well during her races that I imagine that she probably will prove effective over 11f, and her ability to quicken so well make her a formidable opponent in any company. However with even the slightest doubt over stamina the two fillies listed above will take advantage. I get the impression the Mile is shaping up into the less competitive race, and that may be the one they should aim for.

Yes, Joel, everyone knows Ad Valorem is second or third tier, thus his winning one of Europes biggest Group 1s at a mile does not speak well of their contingency this year. I understand the horses you mentioned may not have been in that race but I still consider it a bad sign.

I haven't noticed anyone saying they " know " Gorella is not as good at 1 3/8 as she would be going shorter. However, in my extensive experience with horse racing I would say many more horses with explosive bursts like Gorella will NOT sustain that move as they stretch out severly. Certainly it is possible just not likely.

As for Intercontinental, while I certainly gave her no shot last year, and in my case it was because I was never enamored with her as a horse more than a feeling about the distance, but as I pointed out before she wired the field and for that reason I am not sure her win can be considered a true measure of the overall talents of the field. Somehow I don't believe Gorella will be in a position to go wire to wire. I'm sure you won't argue that if a horse is to successfully negotiate a distance that is overall to far for him or her that victory is very likely to occur on the front end.

Perfect Sting...

Juv Fillies - Cotton Blossom
Juv - Principle Secret
Mile - Libberitist
F and M Turf - Alexandrova
Sprint - War Front
Distaff - Fleet Indian
Turf - Cacique
Classic - Invasor

Do you consider 1 3/8 miles "severely" longer than 1 3/16...it is only 3/16 of a mile longer...just like 1 3/16 miles is only 3/16 longer than a mile and she crushed a pretty solid Film Maker with ease at that trip and never needed her best to win comfortably....I just do not see it as a 'severe' increase in distance that she cannot handle...Whose to say that she isn't better going that far?..Seriously?..Who can justify that thought?

You are speculating that she will be at her best around one mile, and I am speculating that the extra 3/16 will not be a factor, especially if she can against her own sex.....it is all speculation....:D ...we'll see what happens....I'll tell you this, Lady of Venice should not factor in the decision because she has NO prayer in any BC race.....I liked her a lot but she has been very disappointing....

Joel, seriously, I couldn't possibly disagree more with you. That doesn't make me right but I would say we have a basic difference of opinion about the game.

Unfortunately, we'll never know how Gorella will do at 1 3/8 if she doesn't run it. As for her running against horses like Aragorn... I'm sorry, but I just don't think she has a chance. I'd cheer her on if she was proving me wrong though.

Juv Fillies - Point Ashley
Juv - Principle Secret
Mile - Gorella if she goes
F and M Turf - Ouija Board if she goes
Sprint - Henny Hughes
Distaff - Baletto
Turf - Hurrican Run
Classic - Sun King

How does that make sense? So Silver Train won the BC Sprint at 6 furlongs and then went and won the Met Mile at 8 furlongs. By your logic if those two extra furlongs weren't an issue then he should have no problem adding two more furlongs and going a mile and a quarter.

It is pretty easy to justify that she is best at a mile since that is where her trainer, who knows way more about her than any of us, thinks she is best.

Honestly, Gorella can win either race she enters. I don't think the distance is going to matter. Put that closing kick up against any horse and I think she comes out the victor. If she is in a longer race, jock will just wait a little longer to unleash the beast. :eek: If she goes in the mile, we will just see it earlier.

I like him too. I really think that this year he is beginning to figure this racing thing out. He has been improving in every race. He will be in my tris because he tries hard everytime. IMO, he will be in one of the top three spots at the finish line.

I agree as well. I didn't like him very much last year, but I think he's coming into this own and it'd be nice to see him hit the board in the Classic. :cool:

Yeah. Now after Gorella wins her race (whichever she goes in) I will be a happy camper. But then when I cash a nice one on my Drifty/Sun King/Bernardini tri, I will be ecstatic! :D

we'll agree to disagree then...and we'll see what happens....:D

Hilarious, Buffy. I'm going to make a guess that Bernardini doesn't hit the board at all. I say 4th or 5th... :eek: Here is my prediction:

Perfect Drift
Invasor
Lava Man
Sun King
Bernardini

HAHA :D

I think that this horse will hit the board in the Classic. Depending on how he runs in his next start, I may even put him on top in a few exotic bets...We'll see.

I would personally like to see her in the mile again because she was so close last year (3rd; lost by a length), and she didn't have the best of trips. Love this mare. With that being said, Aragorn sure is nice too.