Dullahan
 

He completely hung like a Chandelier.

When Desormeaux wheeled him outside of Creative Cause near about the 3/8ths pole...it looked like an absolute forgone conclusion and the only question would be how far he'd win by.

Thank God they don't have in-race betting in the United States yet ... because I'd have lost a fortune on him on the far turn.

He was intially moving so well but his stretch kick just has way more grind to it on dirt than the other surfaces.

Bodemeister ran a sensational race and was open lengths better than anyone else. Sucks for him that the hopeless Trinniberg was entered and he was forced needing to match strides with a sprinter through a 22 1/5 opening quarter at 10fs.

Anyway, fun weekend of racing. Nice to see Pletcher go 1-for-19 at CD and BEL over the weekend ... his lone winner coming in a NY Bred MCL race with a 1-to-2 favorite who held on over bombs of 37/1 and 47/1 in a driving finish.

Bodemeister wins if Trinniberg isn't entered. True?

By open lengths.

Probably a five or six length victory under very minimal urging -- and most likely wrapped up with Smith celebrating with a fist pump well before the finish line -- if Trinniberg doesn't run.

Dominguez was always commited to rating Hansen -- just like he was commited to rating Get Stormy in the Little Mike race.

I know it doesn't matter but I can't wait for the Trakus data on Dullahan. He was in the 8 path it seemed like.

Creative Cause too. Could he have been any wider around the far turn?

Paul

In my humble opinion, I totally agree. Bodemeister ran a "hole in the wind" and I still cannot believe that he was anywhere near the leaders at the finish. What a horse !! And what a masterful job of training by BB. No bounce in his performance......

i thought that creative cause made a big move going into turn 4(nascar talk)

I had Creative Cause... he was so wide. My win $ was on him... No way he gets to the top 2... but he flattened in the stretch because of that wide move too. Maybe coulda gotten 3rd?

It's a shame how it all played out.. Bodemesiter ran too well to lose.. But, the Parboo's got their Derby "experience" and that's all that really matters..

That's not a real excuse for Dullhan though, IMO.

He was certain to get the dream pace setup -- obviously he got it.

The only thing I was really even hoping for is that he would get switched out for a clear run in the stretch. He got that.

His stretch kick was just VERY mediocre today. He turned out more like a Paddy O' Prado finish than an Animal Kingdom finish ... and that was always the fear.

The Romans barn continues to do well on big days with the home cooking at Churchill Downs. He won 3 Graded Stakes at CD this weekend and no other trainer got more than one.

Derby setup closers always have a terrible record in the rest of the triple crown races. Dullahan becomes a no-brainer toss for me in any big dirt races going forward.

Optimizer almost split the field. DWL will call it a confidence booster and start making plans for the Preakness.

And Lukas won a race at like 15/1 early in the day! He was on fire today.

Went The Day Well past all of the leaders 50 yds past the wire. Just took him to long to get it into gear. I'll never bet another horse with Leparoux as the jockey. Two jumps out the gate and he's already giving up the chance to try and get closer to the pace but instead takes the horse up under wraps and is ahead of 1 horse in the 1st turn. What a sucky ride he gave today.

Doug if Bode and the winner go on to Pimlico, Bode is chalk, right?

I agree on LePeaux, I think he's the worst big name jock going, but he rode Union Rags, not WTDW.

I just can't imagine Bodemeister will be ready two weeks from now. I would love to see the O'Neill stats with two weeks or less rest in stakes.

In Airport, headed home. Data report later today

That was like stealing. Hell everyone knows DWL is $$ 7th race of the year and coming off two drubblings in graded company

the race I saw the simple fact was Trinniberg couldn't keep up with Bodemeister, he did it on his own...the pace. I don't care what anyone said afterwards, it was no factor in the race. No Trinniberg, same pace for Bodemeister as Hansen and Take Charge Indy run closer to Bodemeister to keep him from getting away and exact same fractions occur. Exact.

It's the simple narrative that is easy to go to in this race and I feel it doesn't fit what happened.

No. Absolutely not. He did it all on his own. I explained it in my last post. It was meaningless.

Note to self. Auto-Toss winners of New York Derby preps until I get beat.

This notion that because Mike Smith says he was within himself means that Trinniberg not being there wouldn't have mattered is NONSENSE.

If Trinniberg is not in the race, Bodemeister does not have to go 45 and 1/5 to get a clear lead, and he doesn't have to shade 1:10 to stay in front. Take Trinniberg out and he would have had a comfortable lead over Hansen going a bit slower at each point of call.

When speed horses get clear leads, that does not mean that they suddenly lose any excuse for losing. Using that ridiculously flawed logic, you will hold losing against a speed horse with complete disregard for the pace they set.

There were a lot of total non-efforts from a lot of horses yesterday. Very few legitimate horses from the spring even put in a hint of a run.

I don't know man, Eskenderaya and I Want Revenge would have been pretty live.

I think the winner of the Wood last year got hurt as well.

Keep in mind that Gemologist had his hands full with the likes of Alpha, which didn't really bode well for his chances yesterday.

It is simply a way for me to ride the trend and eliminate a few lower odds horses. When I get beat I will start including them. Some may think it is absurd but thats fine.

Yeah, but truthfully haven't people been saying that about the California contingents the last few years?

For me that changed when they went back to dirt...

No it didn't, you claimed but 2 months ago that the California races/horses were "completely irrelevant" to the triple crown?

Now your saying since they switched to dirt you think they are relevant, which happened long before the San Vincente.

That's fine, but the three previous winners were all injured.

Gemologist, while possible, seemed up against it. Tale of Ekati and Slobiz were hopeless.

I was should've been more clear. I was talking about to different horses. My Bad.

Dude.... Really????? This game is fluid if you know what I mean. Anyone that forms an opinion 2 months back and sticks to that opinion when subsequent events dictate otherwise is pretty much an idiot.... That was my opinion for that period of time. I am a lot of things but an idiot is not one of them. Do you form an opinion and stick to it regardless of what subsequent races show you?

You shouldn't underestimate yourself!

Totally J/K.

On second thought based upon my play friday and saturday I want to retract my statement.

Slobiz was hopeless??? You tell me this now?:)

Bodemeister will probably be 6-5 in the Preakness if he runs. I think the chances of him running are probably about 50/50. He ran awfully hard. I think it would make more sense to give him a break and point for races like the Haskell and BC Classic.

I thought I was pretty vocal about that!

6/5? Absolutely no chance.

Maybe, but I must have had you on ignore back then:o

That might be a little low. I guess it depends on whether horses like Union Rags and some of the others show up. But no matter who shows up, I don't think he goes off higher than 2-1.

I have no feel whatsoever for what the odds would be on Bodemeister in the Preakness.

I could see him 3/5 or 5/2.

I'd much rather see him go to the Belmont.