5/5: Churchill Downs (Kentucky Derby Day)
 

Arrive at Derby Day feeling fortunate to have had a single notion in La Troienne heroine Juanita that made it possible to keep head above water with a devious main track that played opposite of way it had been leaning Tuesday-Thursday. After starting to see inside speed do well before Friday, outer paths turned out to be the key to success up until the weather delay that sealed the track ahead of the Oaks. And after outside rallyers or stalkers spent the day overhauling pacesetters, Believe You Can and Broadway's Alibi ran 1-2 all the way around in a race that had almost nothing lined up but front-end interested players.

Suggestion of protecting against heavy La Troienne favorite Plum Pretty (2-5!) with 'Best Value' 2nd choice Juanita was fortunate as the reformed claimer took the garden outside stalking path and won easily. Her $35.40 tote generated P3's of $260, $207 and $149 covered all of the day's other multis and then some. The .50 P4 returned $409 if you used Juanita on a back-up with the 3 chalky winners before and after. American Turf proved out as the day's most challenging betting affair and biggest frustration as Romans' Silver Max ran a remarkable race wire to wire to deny my key Travel Advisory (24-1) who arrived far too late to be 2nd. All in all, one of those days where you come away ready to fight today knowing you could have been luckier or you could have been beaten up badly.

As I write (now 4:30a), thunderstorms continue in the area and are forecast into mid-morning before expected clearing. So where are we with a racetrack that retiring superintendent Butch Lehr will groom for one last Derby Saturday? Hard to say right now. The Churchill main dries quickly and there is a chance that training is cancelled this morning if rain is still falling so they do not have to unseal it. You will have to monitor the surface today and be prepared to adjust your thinking and approach accordingly. Not an ideal way to go into one of the most anticipated betting cards of the year.

WEATHER UNDERGROUND LINK

Hope you did OK Friday, that we can make the most of today and that everyone enjoyed ATR coverage of Oaks-Derby 2012!


CHURCHILL DOWNS -- 138TH KENTUCKY DERBY


POST-SCRATCHES


4TH OFF THE TURF, MAIN MUDDY & WILL DRY OUT AS DAY PROGRESSES


1st: OC/N2X, 3yo, 8.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Atigun (7-5) isn't that special..

Best Value: #5 Politicallycorrect 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #1 Point Taken 7-2 5th
Exotics Use: #3 Afford 3-1 4th
Super Add: #2 Atigun 7-5 WON ($4.20)


2nd: MSW, 3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Big Ring 9-2 WON ($12.20)
Next Best: #10 Vasten 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #9 Kingwood 15-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #4 Master Clip 8-1 5th


NOTE: MAIN TRACK NOW MIRACULOUSLY FAST


3rd: OC/N1X, 3yo, 8.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Faves appear simply better than the rest here. Notice that Coolmore cleverly gets Daddy Long Legs pilot Colm O'Donohue an early mount with Revolving..

Most Likely: #5 Golden Ticket 3-1 2nd
Next Best: #10 Windsurfer 4-1 4th
Exotics Use: #7 Z Dager 4-1 5th
Super Add: #4 Event Center 15-1 10th


4th: OC/N3X, 3+, 8.5f-OFF THE TURF (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #12 Tonto Fontenot 6th
Next Best: #6 Stay Put 3rd
Exotics Use: #2 The Program 2nd
Super Add:# 11 Cool C Note 7th


5th: OC/N1X, 3yo, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #6 Thermal Cat 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #3 Mile High Magic 9-5 3rd
Exotics Use: #10 Macho Macho 12-1 WON ($17.00)
Super Add: #5 Big Blue Nation 6-1 8th


<$50 P4 Play:

2: 2-4-9-10
3: 5-7-10
4: 2-6-11-12
5: 3-6

4x3x4x2 = 96 x .50 = $48


6th: 18th Twin Spires Turf Sprint (G3), 4+, 5f-T (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Bridgetown feels like a free square toward the guaranteed P6 pool which already starts with a $269k carry..

Most Likely: #4 Bridgetown 6-5 2nd
Best Value: #2 Great Attack 8-1 WON ($10.80)
Next Best: #10 Great Mills 5-1 4th
Exotics Use: #11 Chamberlain Bridge 5-1 6th


7th: 78th Churchill Downs, 4+, 7f (P5, P3, DD, Super)

Wildly deep and tough group. Who would surprise you here? Even 20-1 Gantry is within the realm. Will's Wildcat gets the desirable outside pressing trip and Amazombie always runs his race..

Best Value: #8 Will's Wildcat 12-1 8th
Next Best: #6 Amazombie 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #1 Smiling Tiger 3-1 5th
Super Add: #5 Hamazing Destiny 15-1 7th


<$75 P4 Play:

4: 2-6-11-12
5: 3-6
6: 4
7: ALL

4x2x1x8 = $64 ($32 for .50)


8th: 27th Churchill Distaff Turf Mile (G2), F&M-4+, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Proctor and Marketing Mix the ones to beat with the next few within range firing best shots..

Most Likely: #3 Marketing Mix 5-2 4th
Best Value: #9 La Reine Lionne 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #10 Hungry Island 6-1 WON ($13.80)
Exotics Use: #8 City to City 15-1 7th


9th: 26th Humana Distaff (G1), F&M-4+, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

Another terrific edition of this event which includes return of '11 upsetter Sassy Image. As will be the case all day, how track is playing will be key to this as there isn't the kind of pace lined up that you'd expect and Carla Gaines' Mildly Offensive could steal away if speed holding..

Best Value: #5 Mildly Offensive 20-1 4th
Next Best: #8 Musical Romance 4-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #7 Switch 2-1 5th
Super Add: #1 Magical Feeling 30-1 3rd


10th: 26th Woodford Reserve Turf Classic (G1), 4+, 9f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Feels like the race on the card that will play the most straightforwardly with speeds assuring a fair chance for all styles..

Most Likely: #2 Turallure 5-2 7th
Next Best: #6 Doubles Partner 4-1 4th
Best Value: #5 Slim Shadey 20-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #10 Brilliant Speed 12-1 3rd


11th: 138th Kentucky Derby (G1), 3yo, 10f (P3, DD, Super, Super Hi-5)

Can't predict status of surface by post time, but have discussed most scenarios about this storied feature and will continue to presume a hot pace leads to a meltdown. Overnight odds below make Union Rags clear favorite at 5-1 with Take Charge Indy, Dullahan, Bodemeister, Hansen and Gemologist all hovering between 8-1 and 9-1.

1 Daddy Long Legs Aidan O'Brien Colm O'Donoghue 26
2 Optimizer D. Lukas Jon Court 31
3 Take Charge Indy Patrick Byrne Calvin Borel 8
4 Union Rags Michael Matz Julien Leparoux 5
5 Dullahan Dale Romans Kent Desormeaux 9
6 Bodemeister Bob Baffert Mike Smith 8
7 Rousing Sermon Jerry Hollendorfer Jose Lezcano 31
8 Creative Cause Mike Harrington Joel Rosario 12
9 Trinniberg Bisnath Parboo Willie Martinez 40
10 Daddy Nose Best Steven Asmussen Garrett Gomez 13
11 Alpha Kiaran McLaughlin Rajiv Maragh 21
12 Prospective Mark Casse Luis Contreras 60
13 Went the Day Well H. Motion John Velazquez 27
14 Hansen Michael Maker Ramon Dominguez 9
15 Gemologist Todd Pletcher Javier Castellano 8
16 El Padrino Todd Pletcher Rafael Bejarano 30
17 Done Talking Hamilton Smith Sheldon Russell 32
18 Sabercat Steven Asmussen Corey Nakatani 36
19 I'll Have Another Doug O'Neill Mario Gutierrez 15
20 Liaison Bob Baffert Martin Garcia 58

The most glaring overlay on the win tote is Prospective as bizarrely, the longest shot on the board at 60-1. He has trained very well into the race and would particularly love it wet. El Padrino at 30-1 gains added interest with the off track potential. I will work around my original concept in the XpressBet Derby Wagering Guide tabbing of Dullahan, El Padrino, Sabercat and Done Talking and while utilizing a few other hard-to-avoid types (Take Charge Indy, Union Rags, Gemologist -- and now Prospective) in the gimmicks. Don't be shy about going with what you like in this race. It was a particularly tough edition of the race going in and is now thrown into a bigger quandary by surface questions. Enjoy Derby 2012!

Most Likely: #5 Dullahan (8-1 ML/9-1 Current) 3rd
Best Value: #12 Prospective (30-1 ML/60-1 Current) 18th
Next Best: #16 El Padrino (20-1 ML/30-1 Current) 13th
Exotics Use: #18 Sabercat (30-1 ML/36-1 Current) 15th
Super Add: #17 Done Talking (50-1 ML/32-1 Current) 14th

<$30 .50 TRI: Key 5 with 3-4-12-15-16-17-18-20 with 3-4-12-15-16-17-18-20 (1x8x7 = 56 x .50 = $28)


<$150 P6 Play:

6: 4
7: 1-6-8
8: 3-9-10
9: 1-5-7-8
10: 2-6
11: 5

1x3x3x4x2x1 = 72 x $2 = $144


<$75 P5 Play:

7: 1-5-6-8
8: 3
9: 1-3-5-6-7-8
10: 2-6
11: 5-12-16

4x1x6x2x3 = 144 x .50 = $72


<$75 P4 Play:

8: 3-9-10
9: 1-3-5-6-7-8
10: 2-6
11: 5-12-16-18

3x6x2x4 = 144 x .50 = $72


12th: ALW/N2X, 3+, 6.5f (DD, Super)

Best Value: #2 BET THE POWER 5-1 WON ($5.80)
Next Best: #5 SCR
Exotics Use: #11 Enclosure 8-1 6th
Super Add: #10 Goodtimehadbyall 12-1 4th


13th: MSW, 3+, 1m (Super)

Most Likely: #1 Dynamical 7-2 2nd
Next Best: #5 Parabellum 4-1 5th
Best Value: #7 Nicklaus Way 12-1 4th
Exotics Use: #4 Z Camelot 4-1 3rd


<$75 P4 Play:

10: 2-6
11: 3-4-5-6-7-10-11-12-15-16-18-19
12: 2-5/SCR
13: 1-5-7

2x12x2x3 = 144 x .50 = $72


Good luck!
Steve

Steve, I didn't think there was ever any training on Derby Day save the few joggers that will be running later in the day. Pretty sure it is a product of the 10:30 post time.

From weather.com for Louisville -

Past 24-hr Precip:2.30 in (est.)

Not sure.. Training ended yesterday at 8:00a with the early post. Either way, kind of a mess.

EDIT: John Asher ‏tweeted that 'training cancelled primarily because of AM lightning'..

It should dry out as the day goes, it will be warm. But the variation through the day is gonna suck.

Steve - I believe you've confused your "Daddy" jocks in the third.

Ha! Indeed.. THX John and G/L today.

Eh? I guess Dullahan = Animal Kingdom. I don't like the horse at all, figure he likes the other surface, and wins for fun. FML if that horse even gets in the top 3.

But good luck anyway, Steve. :D

Best of luck Steve - Thanks for your tireless efforts over the past two weeks.

Good luck Steve- thanks for all the ATR shows. I hope at the end of the day I can say "went the day well".

Ditto from me. Great job Steve.

Thanks and Good Luck Steve!!


sloppy and good right now, race 4 off

Thanks for the hard work you have put in this past couple of weeks, hoping you have a great day and best of luck to all!

Will monkeys fly if Delta Jackpot winner, Sabercat, triumphs today? Jackpot gets no respect each year. Its most achieved past winner is Big Drama who matured into outstanding sprinter winning 2010 Breeders' Cup Sprint.

Sabercat inhaled field on final turn in Jackpot and cruised to victory that afternoon. I was backing Basmati who finished a nonthreatening second.

Proudly wearing my At The Races t-shirt to OTB today. Same shirt I've worn for last two Jackpots!

DISCLAIMER: I'm live to Bodemeister and Daddy Nose Best in Oaks/Derby double. So, Sabercat is welcome to finish "nonthreatening second" later today.

Add Hooh Why to the list in the 8th. She won yesterday at Tampa.

love derby kitten in the fourth
and the derby just screams hansen to me
i will use the steve free square in the 12th as part of my pk3's turralure owes me of that breeders cup lack of a pinoccchio nose but doubles partner looks like the one with a clean trip hemmed in the last and castelleno is just money in these spots
salutes to steve whose tireless efforts make every racing day special and this one extraordinary
run well everyone

Derby Selection:

Gemologist
Hansen
El Padrino

Update Track maint:

What maintenance was done to the main track following morning training? Note: Training from 6-8 a.m. on Kentucky Derby Day was cancelled primarily due to lightning in the area. Severe overnight thunderstorms from approximately 1:30 a.m. to daybreak produced at least 1 1/4 inches of rainfall, according to Butch Lehr, Vice President, Track. Lehr and his team graded and sealed the track prior to the storm's arrival. He plans to harrow and float the track in the morning to continue to weave the moisture to the top.

KY DERBY STEVE BYK-ESQUE RANKINGS

Best Value: ALPHA
Most Likely: UNION RAGS
Best Longshot: PROSPECTIVE
Next Best: CREATIVE CAUSE
Exotics Add: DULLAHAN

Leparoux is on an incredible run. I'm having to adjust my plays because of him. It's ridiculous but I don't want to be broke.

nice tri in the second..the rail may be fine after that stagglefest to the wire..

I'm not sold on the rail being back after that race. You're dealing with a jockey who has a ton of luck on his side right now. The 1 quit hard and the runners up had wider trips.

Butch Lehr, working the strip for the last Derby Day of his career, gets it FAST for the 3rd.. Amazing.

We took a brutal beat in the 3rd....

Guys...

Settled in for the afternoon. Thanks very much for the kind words/well wishes and BOL back to you and all..

Let's take it to them the rest of the day!

Thanks Steve and all your guests for the info you give us.
Derby future bets live to dullahan ,tci,bodie. Bodie and Gemologist in exactas.
Looking to not settle until I see more races today leaning towards Gemologist and playing some bombs to hit board in tri.
Good luck D.T. crew!!:$::$::$:

derby pick
 

Sitting here thinking how did steve make his selection for the derby..

And all that comes to mind is fittest, fastest, best...

playing Daddy nose best 50 wps... and praying he is the fittest!!!!

Surprised there has been no mention here (as far as I can see) about the curious way this race was run. On paper, while I believed Little Mike would lead the way, the presence of Get Stormy and Turbo Compressor should have ensured at the very least a legitimate, if not super fast pace. It seems Dominguez and Bejarano had other ideas. Their surprising tactical decision did not help their mounts, who finished 9th and 8th respectively, nor did it help any of the closers in the race (obviously), or most people who handicapped the race. It did help Little Mike.

I happened to catch Brad Thomas on the Meadowlands feed, LAMBASTE (my word) the jocks in question, calling the tactics "bad for the game". He also said stewards should met out punishment in situation like this. I thought that was refreshingly honest for him to say what many of us were thinking.

The two were a combined 16 wins from 39 starts, and save TC's maiden breaker, every single one of them occurred on the lead - neither of them have ever passed a horse (to be fair, Get Stormy laid 2nd within a length to the half on one or two occasions).

The notion that both of these jocks would decide to take back, on one of racing's biggest days, certainly needs to be construed.

It's difficult not to sound like sour grapes, but it gives the sport another black eye without an explanation - you know, they send reporters on horseback to interview the winner, why not send one to find out why Ramon and Raffie stiffed their mounts?

I had a houseful of people, many not involved with the game, but one friend had shown interest in learning basic handicapping. He asked me why Little Mike was going off at 12-1 when he looked like he could legitimately win.. I explained the need for the other 2 to need the lead as well, and that the 3 of them would cook themselves, hence the value price, and why horses that come from off the pace were considered more likely.

He bet, against the 1, then ask why they didn't go, shook his head and said, "this is why I don't go to the track - these jocks are in cahoots with each other - Dominguez and Bejarano had money on the 1"

If that's the public perception, and certainly not an illogical conclusion to draw, why would the stewards not investigate - or at least sit them down for an explanation? Bejarano can probably get away with saying TC didn't care for the looser footing, Dominguez, not so much - he has made the lead in all but 2 of starts over a turf course that was graded as "other than firm"

It was embarrassing, and as much as I love Dominguez, he has watched more horses cruise on easy leads over the last few years while rating his own horse than any rider I can imagine.

I was a bit more annoyed that Bejarano didn't press on with it when Turbo Compressor came out of the gate so quickly. Wrangling him back was just very foolish. This is a horse that has never rated effectively. Get Stormy at least had one positive race where he rated (Shadwell Turf MIle) even though that race is a bit difficult to trust.

Dale Romans has absolutely tortured me on big event days at CD going back to last Derby day. Doug called it well in advance, Dale's horses simply cannot be tossed on big days at CD. Thank God the BC is at SA.

I totally dismissed Little Mike and Get Stormy and probably needed ALL to get Little Mike myself... As far as handing out punishment for how the race was run is beyond absurd. Jocks and trainers strategize how they will run based upon the other horses in the race. I can understand how Get Strormy didn't battle for the lead against Little Mike who has shown that the ONLY WAY he can win is on the lead. They simply let him slip away and Jersey Joe who gets lambasted quite a bit did a hell of a job. Kudos to him and it is another 3 out of 4 in the P4 for me Derby day.... Wait till next year.

More than any other race/result of the weekend, this was the most confounding. The Derby is always going to have it's oddities in pace developments/trouble/decision making, but it seemed utterly impossible that anything other than an authentic pace would unfold in the Woodford. It took all of the 90 minutes between it and the Derby to stop muttering about the race. There wasn't a guy I talked to afterwards that could have imagined Little Mike winning which begs the question how in the world he was 12-1?

Which brings up another question that how in a 20 horse field can the longest horses be less then 60-1 ? Is it computer alogorithm betting that is doing this? How can Liason in post 20 be only 56-1?

The Goat.

I am guessing it was from the extra $ in the pools from people that looked at the race (like Rudeboylvis's friend) and saw all the 1 1 1 1's and figured he was a good bet.

I'm amazed that 10 pinheads let Bravo walk the dog like that. Did they really think a horse of that quality would not come back to them if left uncontested? I understand not wanting to sacrifice your horse, but I don't get giving your horse an opportunity to do no better than second to avoid it.

There were many killers for me this weekend but none more than that race.