Battaglia's tentative pre-draw Derby ML
 

Mike Battaglia’s tentative morning line

Hansen (Maker/Dominguez)*10-1*

Daddy Long Legs (O’Brien/O’Donoghue)*30-1*

Union Rags (Matz/Leparoux)*9-2*

Dullahan (Romans/Desormeaux)*8-1*

Creative Cause (Harrington/Rosario)*12-1*

Gemologist (Pletcher/Castellano)*6-1*

Sabercat (Asmussen/Nakatani)*30-1*

Take Charge Indy (Byrne/Borel)*15-1*

Bodemeister (Baffert/Smith)*4-1*

I’ll Have Another (O’Neill/Gutierrez)*12-1*

Daddy Nose Best (Asmussen/Gomez)*15-1*

Liaison (Baffert/M. Garcia)*50-1*

Alpha (McLaughlin/Maragh)*15-1*

Prospective (Casse/Contreras)*30-1*

Trinniberg (Parboo/Martinez)*50-1*

Done Talking (Smith/Russell)*50-1*

Went the Day Well (Motion/Velazquez)*20-1*

Rousing Sermon (Hollendorfer/Lezcano)*50-1*

El Padrino (Pletcher/Bejarano)*20-1*

Optimizer (Lukas/Court)*50-1*

Jon White had Hansen at 12-1. I can't see him being higher than 8-1.

creative cause at 12-1 would be nice.

I can't say I would disagree with much. It's a hard line to make, especially this year.

[quote=Kasept;857370]Mike Battaglia’s tentative morning line


Dullahan (Romans/Desormeaux)*8-1*QUOTE]


so much for value there :rolleyes:

-bt-

Why becuase it would be a massive underlay and create value elsewhere?

Take Charge Lady won't be 15-1

He should be, but I agree that he won't (because of Borel).

I know it's a thankless job, but I don't know how he could have 6 horses at 50-1 when last year not a single horse was higher than 40-1. Also, the favorites seem too short, maybe put Bodemeister at 9-2 or 5, UR at 6 and adjust the longshots down accordingly.

I'll take 6-1 on Gemologist

I think this is a year where we return to realistic odds on the longshots... but then again, who knows... the volume in the pool is so large.

Making a horse 30-1 instead of 50-1 starts to really increase odds on some of the lower horses, which is tough to do this year.

I don't think there is a chance in hell that either Bodemeister or Union Rags will be under 5-1. I'd say even 6-1 would be low. Lookin' At Lucky was over 6-1 as the favorite. And only two others were under 10-1 that year (Super Saver and Sidney's Candy).

Hard to envision we'll have a Big Brown (2-1) or even a Friesan Fire (3.8-1?!?!?!?!? - sorry, had to throw that in there for laughs) in the 2012 Derby.

6-1 because he drew the rail. He would have been 4-1 or less in the 5-20 posts.

Unless you are only betting in the win pool, the odds are meaningless for assessing legitimate value. I think you get some much more realistic value on the "longshots" in the exotics pool compared to the win pool, where a load of the novice money ends up going.

Good point, but there were still only three horses under 10-1.

I'm starting to really like Hanson.

At 10-1 or higher, me too.

I prefer Nelson, but Hanson will do.

I think you mean Nilsson.

Tough for me to believe you'll get over 10-1 on Hansen or Creative Cause, but I'd love it

I think he would have won if he drew 5-10

The odds look right in the ball park.

They can't all be under 10-1, and I'd be shocked if Hansen was one of the ones who was.

I think he will be under 10-1. I really feel like he's going to take a ton of money from the once a year bettors who like him because he's a pretty horsey. Not to mention, the continous clips that NBC will be showing of him winning the BC on the same track.

I guess that could be a factor. . . Just seems like very few actual handicappers (myself include) like him.

Someone out of the shorter prices is going to get lost on the board this year. . . maybe Dullahan?

I've heard stories of really old people throwing vacuum salesmen out of their house because the product they were trying to sell shared a name with Herbert Hoover.

For 30-year-old people, Hansen is to music what Herbert Hoover is to presidents for 90-year-old geezers.

I'd prefer Bond over either one. They are pretty hot.

I'm not going to be an apologist for the music group Hanson, but it's been like...18 years since they've released that MMMbop song. Now in their late 20's, they're more like a cross between Cheap Trick and Crosby Stills and Nash, than the Backstreet Boys.

In addition to owning their own record label, they write, record and perform all their own music and still sell a sh*tload of CDs around the world. I realize it's not everyones cup of tea, but those guys are actually pretty talented.

Once NBC shows the video of Hansen playing in the sand it's over. 7-1 tops.

i had no idea they were still in the music business after mmmm bop dupadobop

you guys are killing me. All i'm saying is that if you went into a bar and saw them play, you wouldn't think they were a boy band.

DERBY DRAW (the most unriveting 30 minutes in TV) is streaming here.

http://content.usatoday.com/communit...1#.T6GgYr_PwY4

These two (on the video stream) are pretty boring. Not their fault I guess, someone needs to pan the camera around the room while they talk.

Those 3 guys from the movie Slapshot sing too, who knew.

I love rock n roll. I'll have to check them out on youtube sometime.

Which one?

I always liked #17.

Why because races run exactly like they project on paper and jocks and trainers are too stupid to train for and deviate from historical strategy when faced with a scenario they couldnt possibly be successful at based upon the current conditions being presented? "very few actual handicappers (myself included)" geesh do you talk down to people much?