DERBY/OAKS DAWN PATROL: (5/1) Valeski out, Optimizer in..
 

Steve Asmussen sent his Derby pair out early as usual with SABERCAT first with a very solid half mile in :48.0 and smooth gallop out through 1:01.0 and 1:15.2. DADDY NOSE BEST was asked to do less and had the easiest of half miles getting :49.1 on the watch with 1:02.2 finishing up. Daddy Nose Best continues to be a fashionable inclusion in Derby discussions and may indeed be the barn's Nehro for 2012. While Asmussen has made it clear that the Scat Daddy colt needs spacing between races, I personally prefer the fitness recency of Sabercat coming out of the continually productive Oaklawn path. I was wrong ignoring Nehro a year ago and nothing says it's a mistake to use BOTH of the barn's runners, but I'll take Sabercat at what should be nearly twice Daddy Nose Best's number..

No other Derby/Oaks drills until after the harrow break, but ON FIRE BABY might have already put in the day's most enthusiastic showing with a spirited 2 minute lick twice around the oval. The big grey may not be best Oaks Day, but her fitness won't be the drawback. There would be pandemonium at the Downs should the totally local connection of Mrs. Cauley, Red Dog Hartlege and Joe Johnson were to win Friday..

DONE TALKING got a wrong way jog around the course early his first morning in Louisville..

UNION RAGS opted for the early session after walking the shed Sunday coming out of Saturday's impressive drill. He looked great again and included a paddock visit as part of Matz' leisurely treatment of him. There is a lot to be said for allowing a horse to enjoy his time out of the stall daily and Matz tries to give the colt every opportunity to stand and take in the surroundings..

EDEN'S MOON and AND WHY NOT were both out around the same time and I didn't get a chance to follow their activities. KARLOVY VARY was out as the sun was rising and continues to make a great impression. Whether the surface is going to work for her is the question the Arnold trainee needs to answer..

COMING UP NEXT....

MARK VALESKI to breeze after the break and a decision about his status for the Derby will be made after that..

CREATIVE CAUSE may blow out for Harrington..

LIAISON and TRINNIBERG expected to get in final serious efforts..

I may be the only on the board using Sabercat and Done Talking underneath.

I think that a fair number of folks are going to envision pace casualties and use Done Talking underneath.

Or not.

;)

Looking forward to your thoughts on Creative Cause's work

Just in case anybody's interested in what the horse shrink has to say:

http://kentuckyconfidential.com/sect...mas-on-horses/

I do like longshot Sabercat's pedigree in that Rescue Squad, they both have the same 3rd dam, finished 2nd in the Red Smith at 11F. He's also tail female to LaTroienne. At the top of my pedigree list are, in no order, Sabercat, Union Rags, Alpha and Bodemeister, pending further review.

Trinniberg on the bottom? Really?

Everyone will think I'm crazy, but I'm using him on top some too.

sorry did I offend your key on top horse?

I don't know what your response means. I'm asking if you are using Trinniberg underneath. If so, why?

Easy, "underneath" means 19th. Like way underneath.

Anyone who heard Trinniberg go by this morning would have no interest in using him...

Was he singing or something?

I understand why people are looking for a the next Giacomo type to hit the board with a probable lively pace scenerio, but with a fairly strong field set to go, using "Done Talking" prominently on your tickets is being a little too clever for your own good, in my opinion.

So many things would have to break just right for this slowpoke to hit the board (including several VASTLY superior horses not running their race) that I just don't see it.

Hey Byk, what did you think of Liasions work?

I heard some pretty interesting information about that horse from a reliable person, and from what I'm reading the last two days, he's apparently taken kindly to the track at CD now.

"So many things would have to break just right" ...you mean like the gate not opening for the other 19 horses

After that ugly initial work where Bridgmohan had to really encourage him in the late stages and into the turn past the wire, he has looked a lot better galloping. He was alone in that work but today he had company (Mile High Magic) and seemed much more interested without urging. It wasn't flashy by any means and he never buried the workmate, (which may have been Baffert's design), but they went a long way through the gallop out to the backstretch willingly.

Gary Young brought up a good reason to be interested in Liaison: "He's a plug.. but he's a plug that will keep coming." As I wrote in the XpressBet Derby Wagering Guide, there are some great candidates for 3rd/4th in this race and Liaison may be working himself into that picture.

(As an aside, I guess no one has looked at the free XpressBet Guide based on the Sabercat and Done Talking comments earlier in the thread)..

I'm guessing I'm not the only one who scurried to XpressBet to download the wagering guide.

Steve anyway to read it online or do i have to download it?

It's funny how many discordant opinions there are about Liaison. He's too fast, he's too slow, he loves being up near the lead, he prefers being taken back, he's just as fast as other progeny of his sire, he's a plug, etc...

It's nice to see that he seems to be getting his head back on straight.

It's free to download and there's lots of great info in it. Daily updates, which are important because we had to have analysis turned in last Tuesday, start tomorrow. I'm very unhappy about the reports on El Padrino, but the picks were an attempt to send a message about how to approach the race. It's a near certainty that 4 of the top 6-7 choices or similarly obvious horses will NOT comprise the super. Horses like Sabercat, Done Talking, Liaison or Rousing Sermon rumble home 4th -- sometimes 3rd -- all the time in the Derby. It's a necessity to envision how those types get in the exotics because the Make Music for Mes (4th; 30-1), Imawildandcrazyguys (4th; 29-1), Denis of Corks (3rd; 27-1), Jazils (4th-DH; 24-1) or Don't Get Mads (4th; 29-1) are almost never part of people's suggested top finishers.

Here's what I wrote..

TIME RIGHT FOR 'ROMANS' DERBY CONQUEST
By Steve Byk
At the Races with Steve Byk (SiriusXM)

ANALYSIS: A tumultuous run-up to the Triple Crown season has left the 2012 Derby with more uncertainty than usual as the BC Juvenile trifecta and winter book heavyweights HANSEN, UNION RAGS and CREATIVE CAUSE suffered armor-denting defeats en route to Kentucky. A host of emergent, well connected players including BODEMEISTER, GEMOLOGIST, I'LL HAVE ANOTHER, DADDY NOSE BEST, TAKE CHARGE INDY and DULLAHAN all arrive at the Downs with solid credentials, enthusiastic supporters and legitimate cases to wear the rose blanket.

MAIN CONTENDERS: Identifying the contenders is easy with the 9 above all capable. The question is how to approach the wagering once the post positions are drawn and you establish an anticipated pace scenario. The presence of fleet TRINNIBERG compromises a moderate early pace for HANSEN and/or BODEMEISTER with the prompting presence of I'LL HAVE ANOTHER, TAKE CHARGE INDY and GEMOLOGIST assuring a serious opening 6f. The second flight contenders led by UNION RAGS will be attacking in the final half mile and closers will get the opportunity to reach contention. With a meltdown highly possible, DULLAHAN, a half brother to 2009 Derby hero Mine That Bird from the team that finished 3rd with Paddy O'Prado in 2010, looms the choice to run by them all.

VALUE PLAYS: Since 2006, top Oaklawn prep finishers have compiled a record of 16/1-2-2-1 on First Saturday and rallying SABERCAT, whose sire Bluegrass Cat was 2nd to Barbaro at 30-1, can charge the exotics. EL PADRINO has the attractive 'post hype' look of a horse heralded in February and forgotten in April and trainer Todd Pletcher has authored 2 big tote Derby placements before with Bluegrass Cat and Invisible Ink. DONE TALKING and ROUSING SERMON are blueprints of the kind of runners that annually fill out the Derby superfecta at 40-1.

SELECTIONS:

1. DULLAHAN
2. EL PADRINO
3. SABERCAT
4. DONE TALKING

WAGERING STRATEGIES: ($100)

$1 Superfecta: DULLAHAN with EL PADRINO, SABERCAT, UNION RAGS, BODEMEISTER, HANSEN, TAKE CHARGE INDY with EL PADRINO, SABERCAT, UNION RAGS, BODEMEISTER, HANSEN, TAKE CHARGE INDY with DONE TALKING, ROUSING SERMON ($60)

$4 Exacta: DULLAHAN with EL PADRINO, SABERCAT, UNION RAGS, BODEMEISTER, HANSEN, TAKE CHARGE INDY, GEMOLOGIST, I'LL HAVE ANOTHER, DADDY NOSE BEST, MARK VALESKI ($40)

THANKS Steve

Ya we cant download stuff at work so little hard thats why asked

Byk, can you explain why and how you like El Padrino (Pyro II)? I simply do not understand the love this horse gets.

Watch his allowance win in the mud at GP over Take Charge Indy.

Cause as of right now he is #20 and 3 out of past 5 Derbies the #20 IN hit the board:p

i think i recall seeing Dullahan's dosage being out of wack...might be wrong though...with you on sabrecat steve

I can't speak for Steve, but prior to the other day's work, I thought El Padrino fit the profile of a relative long shot who might get a piece (think Bluegrass Cat) coming off the worst performance of said horse's career. And "worst" performances in El Padrino's case is significantly different than what Pyro did in the Blue Grass back in 2008.

ETA - Pyro went off third choice back in 2008. Not really a comparison to El Padrino. IIRC, folks were just trying to find somebody - anybody - to beat the 2-1 favorite in that race.

Pyro ran in the BG over poly, not dirt.

Otherwise, they are very similar. Both beat very suspect competition, and did it unimpressively in pretty slow times.

I don't think he'll be a huge longshot either. He's sort of a hype horse, which will mean he gets overbet relative to his chances of winning.

And yeah, I watched his win over TCI. What am I looking for that explains his popularity and overhype?

Were you being facetious?

I understand that Pyro ran over poly, but he also utterly bombed. El Padrino's never had that kind of performance, regardless of the surface.

What do you consider longshot? 20-something-1? Because I think that's what you'll get on El Padrino. He'll certainly be much longer odds than Pyro's 5.7-1 back in 2008.

I doubt you'll see 20/1, and if it weren't for that awful performance in his last race, he'd have been one of the favorites.

He's not really similar to Pyro at all.

Pyro was a very good 2YO who went into his 3YO season with a ton of fanfare. His two wins at FG to begin the year were wildly overrated because it seemed like he had been able to rally against negative pace setups when he was really just dominating slow horses.

El Padrino was a maiden winner who narrowly picked up a G2 placing as a 2YO. His pair of wins in the alw race and the Risen Star are more impressive than Pyro's pair of victories early in 2008. His wide trip off a very slow pace on a track that was kind to speed at GP is a better race than it looks on paper in my opinion.

I try not to read into his work too much because I wouldn't just about any other day of the year. But, he is going to be a longshot off a :53 and change drill at Palm Meadows, since there are so many workout darlings being raved about right now.

P.S. - not sure folks who are inquiring about Liaison can really knock those looking to take a stab with El Padrino...

I'm not knocking people. I just don't get why people like him and want it explained.

Nick's explanation still doesn't do it for me, and yeah, while Pyro and El Padrino do have different circumstances, my assertation that they are similar in style and lack of speed, and an abundance of hype, it still stands.