With 12 days to go who...
 

... will you definitely be using?

Tossing?

USING......... UNION RAGS & DADDY NOSES BEST

TOSSING........ HANSEN & TRINNIBERG

I will be happy to decide who I am using with 12 minutes to go, or maybe even less. Making decisions on who you are using without knowing how horses have trained, post positions, etc., I just don't get.

I'll explain. This thread is just for fun.

Are either of those two your official Derby horse?

My list of tosses is a bit longer than yours... :D

Bodemeister
Dullahan
Daddy Long Legs
Take Charge Indy
Alpha
El Padrino
Trinninberg

Thank you.

Union Rags and Bodie are must use......trinnie and ALOT of others are tosses.

Tossing: Alpha

The only way I DON'T use UNION RAGS is if.......he gets post #1 or #20 :D I still think he's the most talented of the bunch and looking at getting MAYBE between 5-1 & 8-1 odds on him......as for my 2 tosses, IF they WIN the Derby, I QUIT BETTING......at least until Saratoga! ;)

Using: Rags, even if he draws the rail I'll use under
Tossing: Alpha, Dullahan (top) and Gemologist- there's your exacta smartasses.

i'd have to think t'burg is at the top of everyone's toss list.


imo dullahan is the one i'm not sure on. a good horse, but is 0-3 at churchill. seems he'd like the distance, is doing well-but what will he on that surface this time around? not sure i'd toss him-how can you ignore him? by the same token tho, there are doubts....but there's doubts about several.

i think this is wide open, moreso than many previous derbies.

Hard to make any of these decisions prior to most of the final works, clocker reports, post positions, and other relevant info. All of that being said, I can't help but root for Hamilton Smith and Done Talking.

Main uses: El Padrino, Union rags, Dullahan

Main tosses: Trinniberg, Optimizer, and who ever draws the rail.

Considering the size of the field -- post #2 has been fine.

2011: Brilliant Speed was 7th from post 2.

2010: Ice Box was 2nd from post 2

2009: Musket Man was 3rd from post 2

2008: Tale of Ekati was 4th from post 2

2007: Curlin was 3rd from post 2

2006: Steppenwolfer was 3rd from post 2

2005: Andromeda's Hero was 8th from post 2


That's seven years in a row where the horse who drew post 2 finished in the top half of the field ... five out of the last six years they've finished in the top four ... and four out of the last six years they've finished in the top 3.

Aptitude was a clear 2nd from post 2 in 2000. Real Quiet wore saddle cloth #2 but he actually broke from post 3.

I won't mind posts 1 or 2 if a deep closer gets it.

What about post #1 though?

Since 1990...

Archarchrach 15th

lookin at lucky 6th

West Side Bernie 9th

Cool Coal Man 15th

Sedgefield 5th

Jazil 4th

Sort It Out 17th

Limestone 4th

Supah Blitz 13th

Johannesburg 8th

Songandaprayer 13th

Anees 13th

Adonis 17th

Nationalore 9th

Crypto Star 5th

Blow Out 7th

Dazzling Falls 13th

Soul of the Matter 5th

Storm Tower 16th

Al Sabin 6th

Fly So Free 5th

Dr. Bobby A 12th


A lot of hopeless horses...though two contenders the last two years encountered a lot of trouble from rail draws.

Ferdinand is the last horse to win from post #1 in 1986. Risen Star the last horse to finish in the top 3 from a rail draw in 1988. Cryptoclearance was 4th from post #1 in '87.

Using....All
Tossing....none

Post positions,reports, weather and etc. Just too much to come before dumping anyone.

For example a horse on the bubble like El Padrino and Take Charge Indy would go way up my list if it rains.

And those 3 were all a whole lotta horse.

My last two derby picks, one thrown over the fence and came all the way back for 6th, the other broke something in the race and never ran again. I will not make a strong opinion anywhere before the draw this year lest my horse pull the 1 again.

I'll use the same disclaimers that most people have cited such as: weather, workouts, pp draw, etc..............but I am leaning towards these 4 for the win bet:

Creative Cause
I'll Have Another
Daddy Nose Best
Gemologist

(Bubble Horses)
Union Rags
Dullahan
Rousing Sermon (ridiculous I know, just think there's upside potential)

Nothing shocking here but I believe the Pick 3's, Pick 4's, Oaks/Derby Double and Oaks/Woodford/Derby Pick 3 is where I'll be spending my time rather than the vertical wagers in the Derby.

For the past five derby winners the derby was third off a layoff. This seems to be a rather strong recent trend. As a result, I'm considering narrowing my analysis to the following horses (same draw, workout, etc disclaimer as everyone else) for the win position and multis:

Union Rags
Dullahan
Gemologist
Sabercat
Daddy Nose Best
Trinniberg
Done Talking

From this list Trinniberg and Done Talking just don't seem to fit - however both will have incredible value.

I'm hoping the value is still there with Daddy Nose Best. His progression as a 3 year old and more likely when switching to dirt, along with his strong foundation and running style make him my early pick.

The only tosses so far are Daddy Long Legs, Alpha and Prospective.

Using: Union Rags, El Padrino, Daddy Nose Best

Tossing: Daddy Long Legs, Dullahan, Hansen, Creative Cause, Rousing Sermon, Trinniberg, Alpha, Take Charge Indy

All others are TBD

Using - Gemologist, Alpha, Went The Day Well

Not Using - Creative Cause, Liaison, Mark Valeski

Maybe - All Others

Darn it, I wanted to ask who had the best placing from the #1 recently.

(Go Jazil Go! :D )

Of course not.

If that happens I'll just move this one to the angels thread.

I mean duh. :p

I'm probably using him too.

edit -

At this point I like...

Liaison
Rousing Sermon
Gemologist
Hansen
Union Rags

(No not using all but those are the ones I'm liking).

Pondering...

Went the Day Well
Daddy Nose Best

:tro::D

Using: Union Rags & Dullahan

Pitching: Pletcher, Baffert, and Hansen (bigtime)

I like Andrew Luck to the Colts

Using, Union Rags and Daddy Nose Best

Tossing, Trinniberg (of course) Optimizer (if in) Daddy Long Legs, Creative Cause (hard to believe Harrington can get a horse to peak at 1 1/4 miles.)

Also, those of us who like DNB who think he'll be 20 or 25-1 are deluding ourselves, he's got wiseguy horse written all over him. I predict he goes off at 12-1 or less.

Can a horse who has shown early speed (Trinniberg) in the past, be dropped way back early and make one giant run the last 3-4 furloungs?

Everyone is expecting trinniberg to be sent early and die at the quarter pole, especially with other front runners in the field. Why wouldnt the trainer change tactics with him? The trainer is underrated and has done well with few horses he has had in his stable in the past.

have you seen what front runners do when you try to hold them up early?

early speed is that horses strong suit, his one talent, why would you take that one trick out of his bag? best to let him do his thing and hope for the best.

a jock will not win a battle of wills with a horse who wants to go. all that ends up if the jock tries that is a horse who is unhappy and perhaps using his strength to fight the jock rather than in his running.