Union Rags Derby odds?
 

Do you think he will go off at over or below 5/1?

I know we have another round of derby preps, with particularly Hansens performance having a big impact, but what are anybody's early thoughts?

Even if Hansen wins the Bluegrass in a romp. I think UR will be the favorite for the Derby at 5-1.

Imagine if had won a fast race?

I think they are using the Bluegrass purely as conditioning for Hansen and are looking for the first time Syn to Dirt pop.

Agreed, unfortunately.

Union Rags 5-1
Gemologist 6-1
Creative Cause 8-1
Take Charge Indy 8-1
I'll Have Another 10-1
Hansen 12-1
Bodemeister 12-1
Alpha 14-1

Alpha lost by a head to Gemologist and I get twice the price not too mention Ramon and Juicy McLaughlin? Union Rags can win but he had better run a lot faster then he has been..5/1 is a serious underlay

Agree, but with his record on synthetics, I'm not sure it matters.

If the race was today, I'd take the Cause as my most likely, but 12-1 on Hansen would be tough to resist.

I agree with just about everyone that Rags will be the lukewarm favorite. His Beyers are light, but his sheet numbers are still better going back to last year, and he just looks the part.

It's nice to have six or seven horses that you can actually make a case for. The last few years it was one or two. Or more who you didn't like

Creative Cause and I'll Have Another all out to beat a 30k maiden claimer. Gemologist,Alpha, Union Rags and El Padrino couldn't crack a 100 Beyer either.

All of these horse seem very consistent, but,
I'm still looking for something out there that I haven't seen yet.

Who's the speed of the speed in the Derby, potentially?

Wait till post positions. What if Union Rags get the #1.

I'm looking at Take Charge Indy. Who else?

I presume you mean second-time synth to dirt...

Didn't look back at the PP's there, sorry.

And those two are as likely as any other individuals. Borel was definately overbet last year, but Street Sense was fair, MTB underbet I guess, and Super Saver was about fair IMO.

I'm remaining neutral until the dapple reports start appearing.

Who else? I've got that narrowed down to 19.

What does it say about the last set of Derby preps that a horse that hasn't run in almost a month (Optimizer) is now climbing the charts with a bullet?

I think I knew more about who I liked on Jan. 1 than today!

Sheesh.

And think of this. 8-1 in this race still only pays $18.00.

I don't know much for sure. But this is a stone fact. No matter who wins it's a bigger surprise than you might think.

No matter what they pay. It's a huge underlay!! :zz:

Fire away.

MTB was severely overbet, even at 50-1. I think the consensus is that fair value for him as far as accurately predicting his chances to win was at least 150-1. But both the Borel factor and the Giacomo factor knocked his price down. Street Sense was probably about fair value but of course Borel had never won a derby at that point so his effect on the odds was much less than it is now, espescially among the casual fans who show up once a year just to bet the derby.

As the speed horses in the Derby? That's what I was referring to, in answering Mike.

The speed would have to be Trinniberg, no?

Paul

While Take Charge Indy showed speed in his synth debut maiden win, he had been rated in most of his starts, before the Floriday Derby. Based on the inside post, and the importance of saving ground on the 1st turn at GP, there was little doubt they would send him that day. Does not mean he will be on or near the lead in the Derby, IMO.

You're right, he very well should be up there.

Agree he can rate. In his last two starts under Borel, however, he has been let loose on or near the lead, and I could see that being the strategy in a 20 horse field. But I do see what you mean. I guess he's got options depending on where he finds himself as the race unfolds.

I believe that he is skipping the Derby and being geared towards the Preakness.

I hope you are right (although he should skip the Preakness too) but I will be shocked if he does not run in the Derby. Derby fever is hard to shake.

Paul

If Trinniberg runs in the Kentucky Derby the horses who are 20th-19th-and 18th after a half mile might finish 1-2-3.

He's a stone cold speed-sprinter who has benefited in his last two races because no other rival has been stupid enough to challenge him early.

I'm a big Trinniberg fan but he would be a lock to finish last in the Derby for the simple fact that he will be hit in the head by the quarter pole.

He's rated very well with the blinkers off in his last two -- but if someone breaths on him early and gets him competitive -- you'll see a sensationally fast horse setup a pace meltdown.

I agree he was severely overbet. In my line MTB was 100-1.

--Dunbar

What was Mine That Bird in the exotics though? I've always felt the win odds don't represent the true wagering in the Kentucky Derby. Even though there is a lot of volume, more once-a-year racegoers bet into the win pool vs. the others.