Derby Top Ten Lists
 

I see they are doing a poll style ranking over at Paulick Report like Travis did a few years ago...

http://www.paulickreport.com/feature...ing-the-crown/

It's pretty pointless to do these because of how lightly raced everyone is -- but here would be my top 10 if I had a gun to my head.

#1 Out of Bounds - won a fast edition of the Sham Stakes last time out in a race where the entire field had clean and efficent trips. The Sham went 2 lengths faster than a Grade 2 stakes for older males that same day.

If you happened to think Discreet Cat was a sprinter/miler (I didn't) you have to like his pedigree, because 8 different Kentucky Derby winners since 2000 have been sired by confirmed sprinter/milers. The dam of Out of Bounds won the Breeders Cup Distaff by closing from 10th with just 3 furlongs to go and surging down the center of the track. Dallas Stewart (he stinks!) trained her.

I don't know if Out of Bounds is really any good...he just about as good as anyone else right now and he has the fewest number of strikes against him. He's got graded earnings, he's got raw speed, he's proven he can take dirt and close late, nothing about his pedigree turns me off...and he's been working like clockwork since the Sham. Six straight workouts since that race, one of every seven days, a good indication he's healthy, well, and hasn't had any setbacks.


#2: Algorithims - He's another with very few strikes against him. A lot of the Pletcher's who start up early at GP are on the decline by the Derby...but there's nothing else to dislike.


#3: El Padrino - The dam ran one time, the sire only ran 6 times. Health and soundness are important. The fast race was on a wet track. Another Pletcher who started early at GP.

#4: Secret Circle - I think he might be the all-around best horse I've seen in this crop. All tremendous races sprinting ... I think he can relax routing and should move forward with two routes in him.

#5: Fed Biz - A lot of ability. He's green and should continue to improve. Two routes into him...but no Graded earnings yet and still untested in certain racing situations.

#6: I'll Have Another - Made a mockery of the Bob Lewis field off of a long layoff. Sire won the Travers. Damsire Arch sired Blame. Has speed, has Graded earnings, moved up at two-turns.

#7: Union Rags - He was one of my absolute highest rated horses from the 2yo in training sales. I loved him as an early sprint prospect -- I didn't think he'd ever go more than 7 furlongs tops. His dam was a fragile horse. She had a 3 race career -- and didn't make her 2nd start till age 5.

#8: Bodemeister - He just won a maiden race and is far behind these horses in seasoning...but no one can say they're better than him in route ability.

#9: Gemologist - Was arguably Pletcher's best 2yo router. He has Graded Earnings. Being a late starter (for that barn) might be a plus in May. His sire Tiznow didn't even break his maiden till late May of his 3yo season...and he doesn't sire precocity unless he gets a lot of help from the dam side. He has some good angles for him, however he's never ran a race that justifies him being placed in a top 5.

#10: Alpha - He's kind of slow. He was in front of Union Rags after a quarter mile in a fast paced BC Juvie won on the lead by Hansen...and he responded with a non-effort. He hasn't been beating much in NY. I like his trainer, he has a lot of Graded earnings, he might be the most likely horse of them all to finish 3rd or 4th in the Kentucky Derby ... but I haven't seen a race of his I like yet.

Out of Bounds would be way up at the top of my list as well, if it were not for Harty.

He's awful.

This was my RTTR stable with a few horses like Thunder Moccasin and Dullahan thrown in for the sprint/synthetic races.

Im kinda sad that Take Charge Indy is not on this list.

These two are on mine so be warned.

Once they're on my list that's usually the end of that! :D :confused:

I don't get Out of Bounds. I thought he had a perfect trip. Like others, I'm not a fan of his trainer either. I guess Secret Circles 102 flatters him, I'm just not sold yet. That's why this time of year is great. Dougie has him 1 and I don't have him in my top 10. Upon request I can make that list available.

I do so request.

It will be posted in this thread before 1pm on 2/25/12. Let me ponder my thoughts a bit.

you're going to hell. :D

Already there.

Maine is great this time of year...

I didn't mean Maine! Maine is great.

I meant work. The retardation factor I have to contend with is hellish.

Had a woman last week who called us up accusing her husband of putting secret micro cameras in her panties, bra and cigarettes, and was scared that they were causing her breast lump. She actually was sobbing on the phone with me.

Had another woman the other day who wrecked her printer by plugging a usb cable into the ethernet port. When I mocked her, not very subtly, she said that the hole looked like the right one and that she grinded the plug into it because she thought she was doing something wrong.

well, she was sort of right-she definitely was doing something wrong!! lol

Just got another.

Been fixing this computer for a crack head moron and he has called and dropped into the store three times the last couple of days. He was Jonesing for his computer.

So, I call him up just now and get his Dad.

Me: "Hello, is Mark there?"
Dad: "Yeah, he's upstairs"

Maybe ten seconds of silence ensues, with me starting to weep at just how stupid humanity has become.

Finally, the Dad speaks again.

Dad: "Do you want to speak to him?"
Me: To myself I say not really, to the Dad "Yes please"

While I'm waiting, my partner here says "I won't be able to pay for it until I get my check".

Mark comes on the phone.

Me: "This is David, the computer guy. Your computer (you know, the one you keep getting up my ass about) is ready to be picked up.

Mark: "Uhh, I have to wait for my check before I can pay for it"

Yep. I did point that out to her, with more than a little sarcasm.

yeah, that reminded me of the story of the lady who bought a computer with 3.5" drive. she called and said my disks won't fit (had the 5 1/4)..so she cut them to fit! and then wanted to know why they wouldn't work. gotta love it.

darwin was wrong...it's devolution.

The other stories are hilarious, but the one about the woman afraid of micro cameras makes me sad. Sounds like schizophrenia.

But the other one smashing the USB into the Ethernet is really funny. I can just picture her at 3 years old, jamming the circle wood block into the square shaped hole.

No Fly Lexis Fly?

No. Drysdale is way too conservative and really takes his time with imports.

If they wanted to give that horse to someone in Southern Cal, somone like Jeff Mullins who can magically improve horses almost overnight and isn't affraid to handle a young 3-year-old aggressively would have been the best choice if the KY Derby was the ultimate goal.

Mullins has won several Santa Anita Derby's with horses who were complete rats before he got them. He also dominated a Wood Memorial with a horse he developed who sold fairly cheaply at the the far weaker and less prestigeous of the two Barretts 2yo sales. Mullins never got much of any young stock, but he was so deadly with whatever little of it he would get. Choctaw Nation, he took him out of a Maiden Claiming race and beat an in-form Pleasently Perfect.

I agree with all you say. I am in Vegas now and they have Fly Lexis Fly at 25-1 in the future book. Pretty amazing.

Paul

1. Fed Biz
2. Take Charge Indy... No works in a while. Hoping someone has some info on him soon.
3. Bodemeister
4. Secret Circle
5. Castaway
6. Midnight Transfer
7. Battle Hardened
8. Algorithms
9. Alpha
10. Gemologist

What, no Bafferts?

Other then Castaway possibly being a tad high, I think its a pretty fair list at this point.

This is Jeff Siegel's (HRTV) Top 20:

20. American Act
19. Ever So Lucky
18. Secret Circle
17. Dullahan
16. Empire Way
15. Liaison
14. Take Charge Indy
13. Bodemeister
12. Sabercat
11. Alpha
10. Hansen
9. Gemologist
8. I’ll Have Another
7. Creative Cause
6. Discreet Dancer
5. Fed Biz
4. El Padrino
3. Union Rags
2. Out of Bounds
1. Algorithms

Not exactly sure how he has Secret Circle 18th and behind some of those plugs.

I think a lot of people believe he has distance limitations. I think thats a fair concern at this point.

Discreet Dancer was exposed today. The female side of his pedigree is extreme speed sprinter and precocity. He got that perfect trip last time when One Sock Down was rated back for some bizzare reason. He got sick on Feb 7th and missed a scheduled workout for this race today.

Union Rags is obviously a very talented horse -- but I don't think he beat anything today and because Gulfstream carded no other two-turn dirt races... you can't really trust any speed figure.

Take Charge Indy flatters El Padrino by working this morning in Florida.

Take Charge Indy - Breezed 5f in 1:01.29 at Palm Meadows.

Currency Swap.


http://www.horseracingnation.com/pol...012_contenders

TVG just did a profile piece on him ... it seems like the plan is to prep him once.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J8nQ8wSRBo8


It's March -- and the horse still doesn't have a single published workout this year.

I hope he runs. I never make future bets as I think they are all sucker bets. But after watching some of his races, I played him at 200-1 back in January. The fact that he is 25-1 now I find amusing but it will be fun if he makes the gate.

Paul