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-   -   Beyer on Mo in Classic: Bold but ill-advised (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=44335)

NTamm1215 11-02-2011 10:35 AM
Beyer on Mo in Classic: Bold but ill-advised
 
The most important decision that owners and trainers can make when managing a racehorse is the choice of when to be conservative and when to be bold. The people in charge of the three most prominent horses in the Breeders’ Cup – Uncle Mo, Goldikova, and Havre de Grace – have all opted for boldness, ensuring some great drama, and probably some intense second-guessing, at Churchill Downs...

http://www.drf.com/news/beyer-uncle-...l-advised-move

Indian Charlie 11-02-2011 10:42 AM
Yawn.

RockHardTen1985 11-02-2011 10:51 AM
Did I miss something? What is bold about Goldikova and Havre De Grace? I guess the decision to run Mo in the Classic to some extent could be considered bold, but I'm not really buying that either. The consensus is he is the most talented horse. He should be given a chance to show that as long as he is healthy.

Clip-Clop 11-02-2011 10:57 AM
"Fortune favors the bold."

freddymo 11-02-2011 11:19 AM
I typically am a huge fan of Beyer...I didnt get this article at all

blackthroatedwind 11-02-2011 11:27 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by freddymo (Post 814471)
I typically am a huge fan of Beyer...I didnt get this article at all
Perhaps the finest compliment Beyer has ever been given.

RolloTomasi 11-02-2011 11:27 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985 (Post 814466)
Did I miss something? What is bold about Goldikova and Havre De Grace? I guess the decision to run Mo in the Classic to some extent could be considered bold, but I'm not really buying that either. The consensus is he is the most talented horse. He should be given a chance to show that as long as he is healthy.
Much was made about Lure staying in training and attempting a three-peat in the BC Mile. Goldikova, a 6yo, is going for her fourth straight victory in that race.

Much was made about Zenyatta being the first female to win the BC Classic in 20+ runnings. Havre De Grace is skipping the anemic Distaff and trying to become the second.

Uncle Mo is about as well spotted as the similarly campaigned French Deputy was in '95. At least he doesn't have to run against Cigar.

Then again, Larry Jones thinks Havre De Grace is as perfect a racehorse as Secretariat...

RockHardTen1985 11-02-2011 11:41 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by RolloTomasi (Post 814474)
Much was made about Lure staying in training and attempting a three-peat in the BC Mile. Goldikova, a 6yo, is going for her fourth straight victory in that race.

Much was made about Zenyatta being the first female to win the BC Classic in 20+ runnings. Havre De Grace is skipping the anemic Distaff and trying to become the second.

Uncle Mo is about as well spotted as the similarly campaigned French Deputy was in '95. At least he doesn't have to run against Cigar.

Then again, Larry Jones thinks Havre De Grace is as perfect a racehorse as Secretariat...
Havre De Grace has already faced the boys and won. Her connections talk about her as the best horse in the world.... She belongs in the Classic. Not to mention Rachel and Z both faced the boys, and they both won HOTY. That's what HDG connections want, again she is where she belongs, where they have been pointing her. I don't see anything bold. Goldikova has been pointed to the Mile again for a year now. She has had no set backs, no injuries and has run pretty similar races as years past. Whats bold? Mo decision might be bold only because he was sick and he is coming off 7f and 8f preps. That's asking a lot, but he is the best horse if healthy. I think he belongs in the Classic.

Indian Charlie 11-02-2011 11:45 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by RolloTomasi (Post 814474)

Uncle Mo is about as well spotted as the similarly campaigned French Deputy was in '95. At least he doesn't have to run against Cigar.
I know what you are trying to say by comparing those two horses, but the circumstances are vastly different.

Calzone Lord 11-02-2011 11:54 AM
If So You Think wins this race -- it will add to what has been a brutal on-going drought of consistant top class male dirt horses since Curlin retired.

RolloTomasi 11-02-2011 11:56 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985 (Post 814478)
Havre De Grace has already faced the boys and won. Her connections talk about her as the best horse in the world.... She belongs in the Classic. Not to mention Rachel and Z both faced the boys, and they both won HOTY. That's what HDG connections want, again she is where she belongs, where they have been pointing her. I don't see anything bold. Goldikova has been pointed to the Mile again for a year now. She has had no set backs, no injuries and has run pretty similar races as years past. Whats bold?
Take the blinkers off.

It's the bare bones scenario. Wasn't it bold of Freddie Head to declare right after the 2010 Mile that she would remain in training and target a 4th Mile? How many 6yo foreign mares do you see staying in training long enough to win the same race in the USA 4 years running? She could have dropped 1 or 2 foals worth millions apiece by now.

Wasn't it bold of Rick Porter to target the Woodward after getting beat by females in the Delaware Handicap? Isn't it bold of him to take on males a second time in the same year, when she's already got the Woodward victory in tow and with a Distaff victory nearly a foregone conclusion?

You seem to think that just because Porter and Head are actually following through with the plans they made several months ago, that somehow those plans are no longer bold. I guess they should have taken a cue from John Shirreffs and waited til a couple of days before the race to announce their intentions.

Quote:
Mo decision might be bold only because he was sick and he is coming off 7f and 8f preps. That's asking a lot, but he is the best horse if healthy. I think he belongs in the Classic.
Maybe. For all we know, Secret Circle is the best juvenile out there, and may end up as a major Derby contender this winter. But Baffert wasn't bold enough to try him in the two-turn Juvenile.

RolloTomasi 11-02-2011 12:08 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Indian Charlie (Post 814479)
I know what you are trying to say by comparing those two horses, but the circumstances are vastly different.
I was talking from simply a training standpoint, which relies significantly on the time factor. Both were off from March to late summer. Each had 2 one-turn comeback races leading up to a 10f attempt.

The rest of it you can compare in a number of ways. For example, both earned the highest BSF (119 and 118 respectively) of any 3yo that year in one of those comeback races. The big difference is that French Deputy pulled out his top Beyer in his first start back (the Jerome), while Uncle Mo unleashed his in his second (the Kelso).

French Deputy, not surprising, deflated quite a bit and got beat in his second start, a money allowance. What does that suggest for Uncle Mo in his next out (the BC Classic) following his career top?

ellpol 11-02-2011 12:12 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by RolloTomasi (Post 814482)
Take the blinkers off.

It's the bare bones scenario. Wasn't it bold of Freddie Head to declare right after the 2010 Mile that she would remain in training and target a 4th Mile? How many 6yo foreign mares do you see staying in training long enough to win the same race in the USA 4 years running? She could have dropped 1 or 2 foals worth millions apiece by now.

Wasn't it bold of Rick Porter to target the Woodward after getting beat by females in the Delaware Handicap? Isn't it bold of him to take on males a second time in the same year, when she's already got the Woodward victory in tow and with a Distaff victory nearly a foregone conclusion?

You seem to think that just because Porter and Head are actually following through with the plans they made several months ago, that somehow those plans are no longer bold. I guess they should have taken a cue from John Shirreffs and waited til a couple of days before the race to announce their intentions.



Maybe. For all we know, Secret Circle is the best juvenile out there, and may end up as a major Derby contender this winter. But Baffert wasn't bold enough to try him in the two-turn Juvenile.
Well said Rollo

asudevil 11-02-2011 12:34 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind (Post 814473)
Perhaps the finest compliment Beyer has ever been given.
:tro:

MisterB 11-02-2011 12:47 PM
so? I guess I am with the forces. Imagine that:rolleyes:

Indian Charlie 11-02-2011 12:53 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MisterB (Post 814499)
so? I guess I am with the forces. Imagine that:rolleyes:
I can't imagine that.

Mostly cause I don't care, but also because your reference to forces seems cryptic to me.

freddymo 11-02-2011 01:17 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Indian Charlie (Post 814501)
I can't imagine that.

Mostly cause I don't care, but also because your reference to forces seems cryptic to me.
"Force" is the brand of drug on the back stretch that Mr B markets

Indian Charlie 11-02-2011 01:35 PM
Now I'm even more in the dark!

pmayjr 11-02-2011 03:44 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Calzone Lord (Post 814481)
If So You Think wins this race -- it will add to what has been a brutal on-going drought of consistant top class male dirt horses since Curlin retired.
Not saying he's as good as Curlin, but I really was disappointed when Tizway was scratched/retired. If he races/won, people will say he beat a highly inferior field, still you could make a case that the horse was halfway decent.

Coach Pants 11-03-2011 07:05 AM
I'll watch the race but would rather watch turds hit the water than read another article mentioning Uncle Mo and Havre de Grace. Spare me the polishing of said turds.

NTamm1215 11-06-2011 10:28 AM
I didn't cash a ticket on the Classic. However, I am completely confident in saying running Uncle Mo in it was one of the worst decisions made by top connections in the history of the Breeders' Cup. Rarely will you see a horse with such a scant resume compete in the BCC.

It capped a truly memorable weekend for Todd Pletcher, that's for sure.

RockHardTen1985 11-06-2011 10:42 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by NTamm1215 (Post 815757)
I didn't cash a ticket on the Classic. However, I am completely confident in saying running Uncle Mo in it was one of the worst decisions made by top connections in the history of the Breeders' Cup. Rarely will you see a horse with such a scant resume compete in the BCC.

It capped a truly memorable weekend for Todd Pletcher, that's for sure.
Where did Mo belong then? This was the race for him, and he did not get it done. Pretty simple, he had no excuse. I for one was wrong about him.

Danzig 11-06-2011 10:59 AM
no, it wasn't the race for him. they threw him in at 10f for the first time ever, vs older at the same time. off two races that didn't exactly prepare him for 1 1 /4 miles.
he beat stay thirsty and headache, which i find interesting. repole might want to consider a new trainer. bill mott maybe??

freddymo 11-06-2011 11:02 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by NTamm1215 (Post 815757)
I didn't cash a ticket on the Classic. However, I am completely confident in saying running Uncle Mo in it was one of the worst decisions made by top connections in the history of the Breeders' Cup. Rarely will you see a horse with such a scant resume compete in the BCC.

It capped a truly memorable weekend for Todd Pletcher, that's for sure.
A slug like 104 won the Classic. If I would have told you that all Uncle Mo had to run was a 103 to be a length from winning the Classic would you have suggested that it was impossible a week ago? It's a 5 million dollar race, its the championship event of the year and a colt you think is superior to everything in the race is feeling OK and excelled on that same(sort of) surface 52 weeks ago.
He failed miserably and hindsight is always 20/20. Also the idea that he is less likely to be good next year because he ran an extra 2f's is beyond crazy.

Dunbar 11-06-2011 11:02 AM
In addition to making a good case for Uncle Mo to be a bet-against, Beyer made a nice call in isolating Hansen as a pick in the Juvenile.

from Beyer's 11/3 column in DRF:

Quote:
Hansen, winner of his two starts at Turfway Park, could do it. When he captured the Kentucky Cup Juvenile, he beat negligible competition and earned a moderate speed figure. But he scored his front-running victory after setting a blazing pace that was a full second faster than the half-mile fraction in a Grade 2 stakes race for older males on the same card. Hansen is quick enough to jump out to an uncontested lead in the Juvenile. I’ll bet him in an exacta box with Union Rags and use only the two of them in pick threes.

--Dunbar

Danzig 11-06-2011 11:04 AM
excellent job by beyer there.
i thought the bcj was the best race of the day.

rgustafson 11-06-2011 11:05 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Danzig (Post 815772)
no, it wasn't the race for him. they threw him in at 10f for the first time ever, vs older at the same time. off two races that didn't exactly prepare him for 1 1 /4 miles.
he beat stay thirsty and headache, which i find interesting. repole might want to consider a new trainer. bill mott maybe??
Wait a minute, haven't you read the form, it wasn't the two race preparation, it wasn't the distance, it wasn't that he was facing older horses, everything would have been fine, but he just didn't handle the track.

Danzig 11-06-2011 12:03 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by rgustafson (Post 815780)
Wait a minute, haven't you read the form, it wasn't the two race preparation, it wasn't the distance, it wasn't that he was facing older horses, everything would have been fine, but he just didn't handle the track.
:D

i was doubting the decision beforehand, so it's not monday morning qb'ing on my part.
didn't handle the track is a bs excuse. i guess stay thirsty didn't handle it either? it's trainerspeak, which is worth nothing at this point. i find it very interesting that both pletcher horses were up the track.

NTamm1215 11-06-2011 12:08 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by freddymo (Post 815776)
A slug like 104 won the Classic. If I would have told you that all Uncle Mo had to run was a 103 to be a length from winning the Classic would you have suggested that it was impossible a week ago? It's a 5 million dollar race, its the championship event of the year and a colt you think is superior to everything in the race is feeling OK and excelled on that same(sort of) surface 52 weeks ago.
He failed miserably and hindsight is always 20/20. Also the idea that he is less likely to be good next year because he ran an extra 2f's is beyond crazy.
It was a horrible spot for him Freddy and the Beyer figure for the winner has nothing to do with it. Whether you believed his subsequent life-threatening affliction was what kept him from "getting" the 9fs of the Wood Memorial, it was a race that exposed some potential distance limitations.

His King's Bishop effort was terrific but it was at a trip that was ideal for him. The Kelso was another very strong effort but came as a result of setting a very soft pace on a track that favored horses with his style. Now, off of those two races, he is entered in the Classic? He had no seasoning whatsoever to be in that race.

Indian Charlie 11-06-2011 12:14 PM
Did any of you actually watch the BCC yesterday??????

Mo clearly was not getting over that track, that much was obvious.

Whether it was because there was more clay in the track like TP said, or there was something to the rumors earlier in the week, I haven't a clue.

Indian Charlie 11-06-2011 12:19 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by NTamm1215 (Post 815789)
It was a horrible spot for him Freddy and the Beyer figure for the winner has nothing to do with it. Whether you believed his subsequent life-threatening affliction was what kept him from "getting" the 9fs of the Wood Memorial, it was a race that exposed some potential distance limitations.

His King's Bishop effort was terrific but it was at a trip that was ideal for him. The Kelso was another very strong effort but came as a result of setting a very soft pace on a track that favored horses with his style. Now, off of those two races, he is entered in the Classic? He had no seasoning whatsoever to be in that race.
I thought his King's Bishop was somewhat overhyped, or better put, overrated, and I disagree about that trip being ideal for him. That was a terrible setup for him.

Seasoning had nothing to do with his dismal performance yesterday. Watch the race again, and watch his action during the first 1/2 or 3/4's of the race. I cannot believe it's possible to focus on him running and not come away with the impression something was wrong. Between how hard he was laboring to run, his attempt to veer out on the first turn and his overall action, it was clear that seasoning, nor distance, were going to matter.

If he'd have run in the Mile, he'd have got dusted.

NTamm1215 11-06-2011 12:32 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Indian Charlie (Post 815794)
I thought his King's Bishop was somewhat overhyped, or better put, overrated, and I disagree about that trip being ideal for him. That was a terrible setup for him.

Seasoning had nothing to do with his dismal performance yesterday. Watch the race again, and watch his action during the first 1/2 or 3/4's of the race. I cannot believe it's possible to focus on him running and not come away with the impression something was wrong. Between how hard he was laboring to run, his attempt to veer out on the first turn and his overall action, it was clear that seasoning, nor distance, were going to matter.

If he'd have run in the Mile, he'd have got dusted.
Let's leave the surface excuses to Pletcher. He has way more experience.

Indian Charlie 11-06-2011 12:38 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by NTamm1215 (Post 815797)
Let's leave the surface excuses to Pletcher. He has way more experience.
Ok. And let's leave watching a race with your eyes open to a race caller.

King Glorious 11-06-2011 12:52 PM
I thought the decision was the right one. If they were looking for the most likely spot to win, maybe not. If they have plans on running next year, maybe not. But I believe that if you talk it, walk it. You can't make claims that he's the best horse in the world, an all-time great......then settle for a consolation prize. Go big or go home. Winning the 8f race would have been forgotten very shortly. Is anyone going to be reminiscing in five years about the time they saw Caleb's Posse win the Dirt Mile? The way I saw it, most people believed he was the best miler in the country already so winning that race would have proved nothing. It was a higher risk/reward race than the Classic for sure. Losing a race where you're 3/5 at your best distance is no good. Losing the Classic doesn't hurt him because everyone blames the connections because truthfully, he did not fit the race. The Classic was really everything to win, nothing to lose for the horse.

cakes44 11-06-2011 04:04 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by King Glorious (Post 815805)
The Classic was really everything to win, nothing to lose for the horse.
I think he lost a lot.

RockHardTen1985 11-06-2011 04:27 PM
He may have lost something, I dont know. I do know he was in the right race. I agree with IC also. I never really saw a comfortable horse yesterday.

dalakhani 11-06-2011 07:26 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985 (Post 815878)
He may have lost something, I dont know. I do know he was in the right race. I agree with IC also. I never really saw a comfortable horse yesterday.
Lost something? He is 3 and he has raced about 10 times in his entire life.

RolloTomasi 11-06-2011 07:31 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985 (Post 815878)
He may have lost something, I dont know. I do know he was in the right race. I agree with IC also. I never really saw a comfortable horse yesterday.
He's the East Coast version of The Factor. Give him perfect conditions and no pressure, and he's otherworldly.

Put a little squeeze on him and he won't "handle the track" every time.

If he runs again, he will never do anything better than his Kelso.

NTamm1215 11-06-2011 07:32 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Indian Charlie (Post 815801)
Ok. And let's leave watching a race with your eyes open to a race caller.
Yeah, you're right, I have no idea how to watch a horse race. I think that was made clear years ago.

Keep grasping at straws to explain the defeat away.

dalakhani 11-06-2011 07:44 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by RolloTomasi (Post 815940)
He's the East Coast version of The Factor. Give him perfect conditions and no pressure, and he's otherworldly.

Put a little squeeze on him and he won't "handle the track" every time.

If he runs again, he will never do anything better than his Kelso.
Give Mo a little more credit than that. I do get the comparison but Mo is certainly much more horse than The Factor who is more like Lion Heart without the Cobra Venom.


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