Breeders Cup Handicapping Thoughts.
 

Juvy Sprint:

Secret Circle towers over everyone else on form.

His debut win was a tremendously impressive performance on synthetic - and the horses he obliterated that day have all run back to or exceeded their figures.

He won with a dream stalk and go trip last time out. He was a clear 3rd behind lively paced duelers -- took command from softened up runners -- and had nothing of quality behind him to challenge him late.

Secret Circle is going to have to face more pressure, adversity and work harder early-on in this spot -- he's not going to be able to run his most efficent race like last time -- but it shouldn't matter. The day will start chalky.



Juvenile Fillies Turf:

I'm playing against 2-to-1 ML favorite Elusive Kate -- her Europeans races look great on paper - but I wasn't impressed when I studied them. Somali Lemonade (3-to-1 on the ML) is also a complete play against from the 14-hole.

Stopshoppingmaria's half siblings are a combined 0-for-19 in dirt routes versus 8-for-30 in turf races. Several of them performed best on turf. She gets more turf influence from sire More Than Ready. Connections are probably right going here instead of trying My Miss Arillua again in a large field two-turn dirt route. I think she's a wildcard and will include her.

Using 2, 4, 5, 6, and 8 in the multi-wins... all of them are 8-to-1 or more on the ML and a case could be made they are the five horses with the five best chances in this race after the post draw.


F AND M Sprint:

I think Switch is the most likely winner and Tanda (somehow 20/1 on the ML) has a very good look.

I am surprised everyone thinks Turbulant Descent will go favored in this race. I look forward to betting against her.


Juv Fillies:

If My Miss Aurelia relaxes early and is able to run an efficent race she will bury this field. She's out of Sea of Secrets sprinter My Miss Storm Cat and is a half to Albergatti (who got into a destructive speed duel when refusing to rate and caused a complete pace meltdown in his inital two-turn attempt)

Grace Hall, Weemiss Frankie, and Miss Netta are the three solid underneath horses -- and all would benefit tremendously and establish a stranglehold on this race if MMA refuses to relax and bombs.

Northern Passion was entered in the wrong race. She probably would have won the Filly turf race ... don't like her here in this hot paced dirt race. Her dam Touch Of Glory was a turf specialist who couldn't stand up on a dirt track.


Four races in so far. More to come later.

Interesting stuff, thanks Doug.

This is very interesting, thanks for sharing. Just curious, but why are you against Turbulent Decent? The price will be short and I can see looking for value, but I don't see much wrong with what she has done this year.

Paul

I think #9 Pure Gossip (12:1ml) is a must use in the Juvy filly turf.

I also think Grace Hall will out finish MMA in deep stretch.
With some bomb like Putthebabiesdown or Say a Novena well back in 3rd.

In the F&M Sprint, Tanda will be a great horse to play Pick 3's into...she will go off around 8:1. I like Musical Romance, at a huge price, to key on underneath.
Her connections always cause her to get lost on the board. This is the one race where I am really going to go nuts betting exotics.

I disagree about Northern Passion's pedigree for dirt. . . I wouldn't say she'll move up on it, but I could see her handling it--especially with the fact that Casse opts to go here. Her dam's a full to Canadian ch. 2yo filly Ginger Gold, a MSW on dirt and second in the GI Selene S. over surface and distance. I also don't think Northern Passion has a turf action. I think there's a sneaky horse in this race if it collapses, and Northern Passion's that horse.

This is a good betting race. I can see a nice price coming in on this one.

She hasn't done much wrong this year -- but she's hardly much (if any) better than say a Champagne D' Oro was as a 3yo last year. Looking over her season...

She failed to crack a 90 Beyer in both of her two SA races this winter. She beat an attrocious field in the Beaumont in a race she couldn't lose on paper. They made her 3/5 in the Acorn and she was no match for It's Tricky. Her Test win was good .. but she got a textbook perfect trip --- and though she was wide that day... Thoro-Graph had that as a dead-rail day.

TD has never faced older horses -- I don't mind the fact that she's been laid up since August .. but it tells you her connections think her one real good figure in the Test might have took something out of her. When I go race-for-race on established form -- Switch is a better horse IMO. There are a lot of others in there who TD is close with who are 20/1 or so on the ML. I will hope the rest wasn't what the doctor ordered.

Agree with trying to beat Turbulent Descent. In addition to Switch and Tanda, I like Musical Romance and Great Hot as exotic possibilites.

But in the juvy Fillie Turf, I'm not read to toss Somali Lemonade just because of her post.Didn't Pluck win from way outside last year in the Juvy Turf race at the same distance?

Somali is a deep closer, Im not sure the post hurts her that much.

If I play this sequence, it'd be:

Secret Circle
Dear Lavinia, Elusive Kate, Northern Passion, Pure Gossip, Somali Lemonade
Pomeroys Pistol, Turbulent Descent
My Miss Aurelia

I agree with Calzone on TD. Too many questions as a likely short price. Switch looks like the obvious alternative. I'm looking for some sort of potential bomb underneath in this race as nce you get by the top 2 or 3 it's very wide open.

In the JFTurf, I'll keep Dayatthespa in the mix for exotics. Her Natalma from post 11 was not bad at all and she showed some rating gear sprinting at Saratoga in her debut. Chad Brown has plenty of experience at the big dance an Ramon rides.

Thought Dayatthespa warrants some attention. IMO, Ramon gave her a pretty impatient ride up at Woodbine (maybe out of circumstances), only to get caught by a couple late. Would probably not have tired if not for being hustled into a close stalking trip from the wide post. Could sit a nice trip here at a price.

I am seriously considering Champagne d'Oro as my underneath bomb in the FM Sprint, hoping she hasn't fallen off as far as she appears to have. Cannot think they are running her just to run.

Good stuff as always.

I'm taking a long look at Pomeroys Pistol in the FMS.

Calzone,

Keep it coming!!

Always an insightful commentary.

I'm digging through the FM Sprint now and I think that even if Switch or TD win (I prefer the former) the underneath spots could be filled by bombs. The tri's could be rich. Tanda and Tamarind Hall are interesting to me in underneath spots.

Since I'm a TRI/SPR player I'm also planning on using Shumoos in the Juv. Sprint. This is a dirt bred filly who has only run on grass and poly. Opinions?

Not too keen about Stopshoppingmaria in Fillies Turf. While I love More Than Ready as a turf sire, the female side of her family looks like "sprint" to me. The best siblings, including Sand Ridge, were all sprinters. While the mare produced a few minor winners on turf, none of the six horses out of the second dam that tried the grass won over that surface. This is a non-confident placement for a filly that could win a championship with a win in the dirt counterpart.

If I am going to use a horse who hasn't tried turf, I'd be inclined to look at Glen Hill's Customer Base. After a good-looking, well-bet maiden win, they tried to get pricey daughter of Lemon Drop Kid to the turf, but race was washed off. Tough post is biggest knock, but price should be right.

Well-drawn Dayatthespa looks like the horse to beat off good second in Natalma, in which she was the only horse near the strong pace who was around at the finish. Flattered when third-place finisher returned to win Alcibiades.

This is outstanding.
I get what you see in Tanda, but it worries me that the Acorn from last year was not a great field even though she made crazy wide run.

I agree that Tanda makes a lot of sense in here, but I doubt her final odds are anything close to ridiculous morning line. Best fig came on dirt in Acorn (after dreadful start from rail), and she finally returns to that surface during what looks like improving form cycle since trainer change to Mitchell. While I respect Switch, I just get the feeling that she's going the wrong way (after two odds-on defeats in a row). Turbulent Descent fires every time, and 7F is probably her best distance. My gut says that Great Hot is better on dirt than synthetic, and and 7F also hits her between the eyes. She might be a live longshot.

My Miss Aurelia looks like most talented filly in Juvenile Fillies, but with Say a Novena in post 13 with Trujillo, and Candrea in post 2, this race almost has to have a fast pace. I wonder where Miss Netta will be early on. She went wire-to-wire in debut, and improved figure in second start despite horrid start in Frizette. If she can rate, she could be in good spot with good post draw. If race falls apart, I wonder if Self Preservation could be a live longshot. Half-sister to Kissin Saint, she was inexplicably put on pace in well-bet Oak Leaf by P Val. Switch to Rosario almost assures she reverts to off the pace tactics employed successfully in Del Mar Debutante. Not sold on Grace Hall, whose signature win was a decidedly subpar edition of the Spinaway.

3YO fillies seem to have Distaff at their mercy. Return to two turns after premature move in Beldame probably makes Royal Delta, reportedly one of the week's training stars, the horse to beat. Of the older fillies, Pachattack handled dirt in Personal Ensign and has figures fast enough to be competitive. With others in here doing the dirty work, she could get a good trip and hit the board at an overlaid price.

Miss Match has been oddly campaigned this year, yet ran a couple of decent races alongside Switch (for what that's worth). Her last pair of races, both against males, cloud her form.

http://hoovescapping.blogspot.com/

dont have time for friday but saturdays up for those who care..good luck at the bc

I don't disagree with your points, and Drysdale has excellent record in Cup. I just get the sense that, for her to win, there would have to be a complete meltdown, and horses like Royal Delta and Pachattack, who would ordinarily have first run on her, would have to not show up. I think she is entirely plausible as an "underneath" horse.

This.

shumoos
 

I give Shumoos a good chance. I have seen alot of Distorted Humor offspring run very well at Churchill Downs. Good Luck.

I have heard more this week about how certain Sires produce runners that run well at CD.
I believe in pedigree angles a much as anyone but, isn't this going a little too far.

DH was better at CD than elsewhere but I was mainly noting that this filly has a dirt pedigree and yet has never run over it.

Maybe Andy wants to throw in his well respected 2 cents.

Dougie finish this up.....

Thursday we'll be adding two new Breeders' Cup preview shows to our vimeo channel with handicapping insight from our hosts Jason Blewitt, Richard Migliore and Andy Serling. Be sure to check it out! http://vimeo.com/channels/tnnr

Thats off the NYRA facebook page.

Filly and Mare Turf:

I believe the post draw is very important on the turf at Churchill. I've seen the data going back 20-years and a wide draw hurts a lot more on this turf course than most others ... nevermind what happened last year when the course was slick and some Euro's complained about it. 20-years of data trumps one weekend worth.

I believe Misty For Me (10/1 on the ML) is clearly the best horse in this race. She's also the type of horse who improves coming to America from Europe. Her drawing post 12 in an absolute buzzkill in a 3-turn race, with a short run to the first turn, over this particular course.

Nahrain and Announce are the two Euro's who are taking all the support in Europe and will get bet here. Based on how I evalute Euro races -- they are exiting a dogsh!t race. It was a very slow G1 race IMO relative to course speed.

Also -- take a quick look at Nahrain's form. She makes her career debut just 5.5 months ago and goes off at 5/1 -- wins by just over a length over a horse who is still a maiden today. She's odds-on in non-Graded events 2nd and 3rd out -- wins both. She was only 3/1 in the De La Opera -- and she won it in a slow time of 2:02 3/5 (the Arc was run in course record time that day)

The two adopted-American horses Stacelita and Dubawai Heights both won the draw getting the rail and the 2 slot.

The draw made this a very annoying race and I'm probably just going to spread here (only eliminating the 10 and 11) and hope for Chaos like last years edition when Shared Account saved all the ground and won at 47/1.



Ladies Classic:

Plum Pretty's 108 Beyer stands out like a sore thumb -- but it was earned over a VERY speed favoring racetrack that was initally labeled "good" -- was changed to "wet fast" and finally just "fast" by the middle of the card.

Virtually everything that led after a half mile won that day -- the lone exception being Flor De Amelia in the 8th race -- who failed to cash in on a loose lead and finished 2nd. She was 6th at 4-to-5 odds next time out.

The horse who stalked Plum Pretty at Philly was soundly defeated as a 4-to-5 favorite in a stakes race at Belmont as well.

It's Tricky is a very nice horse -- but she flopped the only two times she left the NYRA circuit.

I like Royal Delta to win this. Will be using Pacattack and Ask The Moon with her.



Marathon:

Giant Oak ran a very poor race at Hawthorne last time out. Sure, he was wide, but I felt that was a dead-rail day and he was on the best part of the track. Note how many horses who raced on the rail at HAW that day have improved greatly next out.

A. U. Minor should get Borel on the board. He made up a ton of ground in the final furlong of the Jockey Club Gold Cup -- he will get pace here.



Juvie Turf:


A couple of pretty strong contenders got hurt by the draw --- something tells me I won't be getting the 15-to-1 morning line on Furrajj. He looks like the best chance of the Euro's to me.

Note that Caspar Netcher was defeated twice (both times as a favorite) in his only two attempts at racing around a turn. Certainly his best races have all come over straight-away courses.


Sprint:


Apriority (30-to-1 on the ML) is 7-4-3-0 lifetime on fast dirt --- he's 8-0-3-0 lifetime on every other kind of surface.

He was a monster in Florida but has travelled all year and played plenty of road games... going to Santa Anita, Churchill, Aqu, Saratoga, and Belmont. I think he projects a perfect stalking trip with Rosario and hopefully he will recapture his best form with a good trip over a fast track. That 113 Beyer race from winter wins this.

Jackson Bend becomes the horse if the track is wet. I love his breeding for off-track and he ran huge last time out.

Not a fan of cutting back to 6fs off such an extremely slow paced mile race -- generally speaking, big cutbacks have a lot more success off of faster paced longer races. His Churchill Downs form is also a worry. He ran perhaps the two worst races of his life over CD.



Turf Sprint:

Perfect Officer wants 5 furlongs and he's drawn well in sharp form. I'll take that 12-to-1 ML on what -- to me -- looks like the most likely winner in this miserable race.



More later.

A lot of good info there.

I just think the deck was really stacked against It's Tricky both times she left NY.

I have gave up on Apriority...I needed him to get his nose in front on Sunshine Million day and Derby Day. I am chalking his 113 Beyer to one of those Gulfstream Beyers that horses never seem to repeat.

I think Ultra Blend is interesting in the Ladies Classic.

I heard a few minutes ago from someone at Churchill that two different clockers think he might be lame and he was one of the strongest negative touts of clockers.

Maybe all the traveling and excellent races he ran earlier in the year have caught up to him.

She got a tremendous pace setup in there -- but yeah -- she's a threat to get a piece IMO.

Old Marty Wolfson's Ask The Moon -- according to pace figures -- is loose on the lead in the Distaff. If Plum Pretty wasn't so sharp right now -- I'd have taken ATM to wire them. I doubt PP lets her get loose though.

Not that I think she has a chance, but I could see P Val pressing the pace with Medaglia D' Amour (Blinks On) also. I just think the race could melt down late and someone like Ultra Blend will be picking up the pieces late.

Friday thoughts: http://thetdnblog.blogspot.com/2011/...is-friday.html

Good work brother. Already read it. Got the link off FB.

Didn't he run and/or train with an aluminum pad or bar shoe at Saratoga this summer? I haven't seen any such notation in any of the PPs this week. I, too, like his "fast" track form and believe that 6F is his best distance, but I sense his recent efforts may be as much about him going the wrong way as it is him disliking the wet tracks.