Goldikova: Lost a step or as good as ever?
 

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-raci...tter-than-ever

Okay, so this is the first I'm hearing that she's as good as she was for previous attempts. Freddy Head is saying bah humbug to anybody who thinks otherwise. The DRF rundown of the pre-entries mentioned that she'd lost a step as have guests on ATR. Is Freddy being sentimental, or is there reason to think he's right?

Play against IMO...

If anyone feels Goldikova has slowed down a step at age 6, her trainer Freddy Head is more than willing to convince you otherwise.

As the three-time winner of the Breeders’ Cup Mile (gr. IT) prepares to embark on her historic journey and her quest for victory No. 4, Head is confident the daughter of Anabaa is sitting on another big effort and is amazed how well she is doing for her return to the United States.



“She should be in her stall at Churchill Downs around 6 o’clock Saturday evening and I’m dying to be there,” he said. “I’m very happy with the mare and I believe she’s in as good a shape as in previous years. It seems unreal that she’s trying to win a fourth Breeders’ Cup.



"I’m very happy with her since her last run. She was only beaten a head (In the group I, seven-furlong Qatar Prix de la Foret) and earlier in the year, she was second (to Canford Cliffs in the group I Queen Anne Stakes) at Ascot. I knew that would be a tough test, because Ascot is a very testing course. She was unlucky at Deauville (in the group I Prix de Fresnay-le-Buffard-Le Jacques le Marois).



“If all goes well I think she has a big chance. She’s very special and she loves the two turns and left-handed tracks. She loves the way races are run in America and wants fast ground, not too soft. I think she’ll take a lot of beating. She looks the same, she works the same at home, and he form is as good or even better than last year. I’m coming with a lot of confidence.”



As long as he’s been riding and training, Head admits he can’t recall ever seeing a horse like Goldikova, and that includes Head’s dual Mile winner, the great Miesque.



“I try to remember ever seeing a horse like her, but I can’t,” Head said. “In France, we’ve never had a horse who has lasted for so long. It’s very special to train a 6-year-old mare. I never did, so all this is new territory for me. I’ve been very happy with her all year. As I said, she’s as good as she’s ever been.”



In five starts this year, Goldikova, owned by Wertheimer & Frere, has won twice, with three seconds--her victories coming in the group I Prix d’Ispahan and Prix Rothschild. She not only won both those stakes last year, she has won the Prix Rothschild the past four years.

Read more: http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-raci...#ixzz1bz9BCqTm

You'd be a fool if you don't use her in multi-race plays, she'll be a "B" for me in those...but it's hard to ignore that her best peformances have ABSOLUTELY, POSITIVELY been in the past. You have to ask yourself if you think she re-finds that form in this race, against some European competition that has pointed to this race a long way out (Strong Suit), and one who found his best form last time and had that win franked substantially (Byword). With an in-form Courageous Cat and the late kick Gio Ponti showed last time...I think you could argue this is definitely the best field she's faced in the last four runnings, all at a time when she seems to have regressed just slightly.

I say...tip your hat if she wins, bet with 1.5 fists against, hedge slightly in multi-race plays, using her defensively.

To my untrained eye, it looks like she's lost a step or two this year. It isn't just that she's lost a couple but how she's lost them. But you also have to look at who she's lost to and there is nobody of that caliber in here so her lost step or two or even three should still be more than enough to overwhelm this group. As long as she has a good trip and runs her race, I don't see her losing and if she is to lose, it won't be because someone was better than her.

Toss. She can beat me again I guess.

Anyone have her recent sheet numbers? I would like to know how those look.

Agree, you have to use her in your tix. That about sums it up.

She may have lost a step, but this may be the weakest field she has faced. It reminds me of a buddy of mine when we were discussing Ouija Board opting for the FM Turf over the open Turf..."She's going down in class for this race". You could make the same argument for Goldlikova here. She doesn't need her absolute best to win it.

She ran the same exact schedule this year as last... and on Thorograph, she hasn't lost a step.

Track 2010 2011
LCH 1.5 2.5
ASC 1.5 0.75
DEA 1.5 1.75
DEA 2.25 1.75
LCH 1.5 0.75

she gained a 1/4 pt. Wow

Though don't think she's got a chance to equal last year's BC TG# of 2neg

Would love to see her win again but my tix as well will be against her.

For the first time in several years, I won't single her race in my multi-race tickets but I will be using her in my exacta. I fully expect her to win.

Historically speaking, I feel that she is a tad bit overrated.

Despite what her trainer says, I'd still take Miesque over her.

Miesque is dead, I say she wins by a mile, literally.

Many thanks philcski!

I agree with IC. I dont think 1 horse that has ran 2-3 to her in her BC run would be called a great. Plus horses that are beating her this year are coming back to run awful. She is great, but overrated is fair.

Here's what you guys gotta ask yourselves- Whether she has lost a step or not, do you wanna have a losing bet in that race because you were foolish enough to leave her off your tickets/wagers/whatever? Let's face it... The best she went up against last year (in the BC Mile) was Gio Ponti. You know she's been running against much better across the pond.

Whether she's lost a step or not, I'm not gonna risk losing a bet by trying to beat her. If you're unsure... maybe the Mile is the one race to sit out betting-wise, and just sit back and watch and hope the old girl has another awesome performance in her. For me, I don't know enough about the other entrants yet to make up my mind whether I'm gonna bet it or not.

I have no problem tossing her in the pick 3's. Beating her turns your payout to an overlay, period. This group she is facing is strong enough. The Euro's look good. Mott's horse is good, and I'll give Mr. Commons a shot. I think the risk is worth the potential reward.

Fair, enough... but were you saying the same any of the last 3 years? As I said, I really haven't looked at the other entrants enough in depth yet to really make up my mind. I might end up agreeing with you. It's just she's the known commodity, and without looking that hard it's pretty fair to say every year that what she faces in Europe is usually is as strong if not stronger than what she faces when she comes here.

I have tossed her the last 2 years.

all I'm getting at, is I don't wanna get beat by her. I don't wanna be wrong in that race by leaving her out. Even if she's over-bet. Will I single her? Hell no. But you gotta have her on your tickets I think, because you'll feel dumb about it after if you don't.

Sucks too, because as fun as she is to watch, the Mile you could argue was always crazy for long-shots and unpredictability. I'm still scratching my head on how the Rock lost that race years ago. But on the flip side, I had Singletary.

and what did the P4 pay last year with her and Blame in it?

Do you really want to miss hitting the P4 by missing her leg? I don't

and the Pk-3s surrounding her have paid handsomely.

I said pick 3's. I get what your saying.

I'll single her in the multi race bets and go deeper elsewhere. I also come up with some strategy to key her UNDER on the verticals. You don't have to spend a whole lot to accomplish a decent hedge with dime supers and $.50 trifecta wagering- unless you think she's off the board. Last year, with the popular Gio Ponti 2nd, you had a $589 ($1) super and $250 tri ($2). But two years ago you had a $705 tri and a $6,628 ($1) super - dont forget Courageous Cat.

I think spreading out the pick 4 in the mile is a waste. Even if she loses, I don't know who is going to do it and it would cost me a fortune to get as deep as I would want to be with her out.

In one step, you say you have an untrained eye, and also assert the caliber of her competition here is weaker...can't have it both ways.

I'm absolutely, 100% confident in stating that from top to bottom (that includes Compliance Officer), the collection of horses in the BC Mile are better than any of the individual fields she faced this year...all of them. While there may have been one or two very good horses she went up against this year, there are 9 Grade/Group 1 winners in the field.

There are some pretty unaccomplished plodders that make up the also-rans in her other races. Dream Ahead, who beat her last time, ran her down to get up, had two fifth place finishes in attempts over more than 6 furlongs, beaten 12 lengths. The Prix Foret was his first win beyond 6, and the third place finisher was making his fourth lifetime start off a 173 day layoff.

Again, not going out on a crazy limb here, I'm including her, and won't be shocked with a win, but a loss is WAY more likely in this field, this year, now more than ever...This is absolutely the best field she's seen this year, and would argue, in any of her previous BC Mile appearances.

Well said Pat.

Pat, I think youre doing Dream Ahead a bit of disservice there. He's a 5 time G1 winner, champion sprinter and I would easily forgive him the 2 other poor runs at 7f+ this year (plus this race is run at slightly less than 7f!). They also finished miles clear of the 3rd , it was a quality performance by both and I couldnt say at all that she has lost a step. This certainly in my opinion was her best prep race for the BC Mile than her 3 previous victories..

I don't think I'm doing a disservice to Dream Ahead...a very quality animal. A great value in that race, and a horse who is one to look forward to when back next year.

I think you have to question the balance of her competition.

hmm I dont know.

First time out - beats the most underrated horse in the world Cirrus Des Aigles by a cosy neck, everyone said it was a disappointing performance but this fella has been insane since (he is a personal fav of mine!)

Royal Ascot - Peslier puts up 2 pounds overweight (simply unforgivable) and goes down by a length to Canford Cliffs, a top miler (well 2nd to Frankel!)

Prix Rothschild - this is the race she always seems to win, won cosily from Sahpresa, she is never impressive in this race but beat a decent filly.

Prix Jacques le Marois - beaten by Immortal Verse who was impressive on that day, readily took care of Goldi. OK this run wasnt great, but she lost in much more devesating fashion to Makfi in that same race last year.

Foret - beaten by the champion sprinter on her prep for this race. Smashing run.

I know you're only giving your opinion on it but I dont think she's lost a step and the runs this year wouldnt put me off.

and I think Dream Ahead has been retired which is such a shame...

My friend, you're missing the point. She faces one or two decent horses per race in France...this year's BC Mile will be unlike any other race in terms of overall quality, mostly because the Euros coming are way better.

Byword showed he is back with the Longchamp win, subsequently franked, and unlike Paco Boy last year, Strong Suit has been pointed to this since the Ascot win. The others from last year, Beethoven and Delegator weren't legit contenders. Gio Ponti, Turallure, a 2011 Courageous Cat...all realistic threats.

This is one reason I'm glad you're back. Right or wrong, there is no waffling by you.

Well I think they are related slightly but I disagree with you on the field issue. I wouldn't trust Byword whatsoever over a mile.. He needed every yard of the 10f to wear down Cirrus and just simply won't live with Goldi over 8..

Strong Suit is dangerous and the only danger I see - he'll probably get the Mile in the States but talk of him making all in the race will be a disaster. If they do run him to play to his strengths I think he will run a slightly better race than Paco Boy did last year.

Of the Americans, I don't think they are not threats (and I have watched their races!!!)

Agree with both of you...

I tossed Blame 2 LOL.
Remember I was a big Quality Road guy, I used him and big Z.

To be honest I have been cold since after week 1 of Toga. My entire handle for the BC program might be under $150. My opinion has sucked latley, check out todays selection thread. Goldi will likely win easily and Ill rip up my 5-4-3 $60 pick 3.

ahh.......... I'm sure everyone remembers the I had a dream thread.
Those were the good ole days.

His Classic run was bad. My dream may have put the mush on him.

One example of why I disagree...

Ascot Result
14 Jun 2011
2:30 » Queen Anne Stakes (British Champions' Series) (Group 1)

« 1 6 Canford Cliffs (IRE) 11/8 4 9-0 Richard Hannon 127 * * »
b c Tagula (IRE) - Mrs Marsh (Marju) Richard Hughes
Steadied after start, took keen hold early, held up in last trio, headway to track leaders entering final 2f, ridden to challenge entering final furlong, led final 100yds, ran on well (tchd 6-5 and 6-4 in places)


« 2 1 1 Goldikova (IRE) 5/4F 6 8-132 F Head 125 * * »
b m Anabaa (USA) - Born Gold (USA) (Blushing Groom) Olivier Peslier
Tracked leaders, headway to press leader going well over 2f out, ridden to lead over 1f out, hard pressed entering final furlong, driven and battled on gamely until headed and no extra final 100yds, eased near finish (op 6-4 tchd 13-8 in places)


« 3 3 1¾ Cityscape 14/1 5 9-0 Roger Charlton 119 * * »
ch h Selkirk (USA) - Tantina (USA) (Distant View) Ryan Moore
Held up in touch in rear, ridden and effort to chase leaders well over 1f out, driven and pressed leading pair 1f out, no extra and outpaced final 100yds (op 12-1 tchd 16-1 in places)


« 4 7 2¼ Rio De La Plata (USA) 25/1 6 9-0 Saeed Bin Suroor 120 * * »
ch h Rahy (USA) - Express Way (ARG) (Ahmad) Frankie Dettori
Steadied start, took keen hold early, held up in last trio, smooth headway to lead over 2f out, ridden and headed over 1f out, driven entering final furlong, weakened final 150yds (op 20-1)


« 5 5 6 Ransom Note 50/1 4 9-0 B W Hills 114 * * »
b c Red Ransom (USA) - Zacheta (Polish Precedent) Michael Hills
Chased leaders, niggled along after 2f, ridden and struggling entering final 2f, weakened over 1f out (op 66-1 tchd 80-1 in a place)


« 6 4 5 Cape Blanco (IRE) 8/1 4 9-0 A P O'Brien 122 * * »
ch c Galileo (IRE) - Laurel Delight (Presidium) Jamie Spencer
Led until driven and headed entering final 3f, soon dropped out under pressure, well behind over 1f out (tchd 9-1 and 10-1 in places)


« 7 2 6 Flash Dance (IRE) 100/1 5 8-11 F Head 104 * * »
ch m Zamindar (USA) - Resquilleuse (USA) (Dehere) Mickael Barzalona
Chased leader until led entering

The field she faced in 2008 was atrocious. Kip Deville was the 2nd choice off an inexplicable 5th place finish in the Woodbine Mile. Whatsthescript was the 3rd choice and was coming in off a 60 day layoff. The rest of the field was highlighted by Shakis, Daytona, and Precious Kitten. The utterly impossible US Ranger was only 17-1.

The 2009 field had a ton of speed and the biggest question was whether she was going to be able to stay as close as she did in 2008 and be successful. Of course, she proved in that race that you can put her anywhere and she'll be fine. With Delegator and Zacinto running so poorly the competition was weak when push came to shove.

Proviso and Sidney's Candy took serious money last year. A filly who had been fortunate to win one time after another against her own sex and a one-time turf winner coming in off a nearly 90 day layoff who had missed his prep. Paco Boy was a horse whose measure she simply had and Gio Ponti was never going to make up the ground Dominguez asked him to that day.

A healthy Courageous Cat, a razor sharp Turallure, and Gio Ponti off his best effort of 2011 prove a formidable threat and that's not even touching on Strong Suit and Byword. This may not be the toughest group she's faced in the BC but it sure as hell isn't the easiest.

You don't think this year's BC Mile field is better? Sure, there might not be a better horse than Canford Cliffs but the rest of that field was hardly stellar when you consider Cape Blanco was going 2-3 furlongs short of his best and needed Lasix.