BC Classic Notes: Gio Ponti (Mile), Await/Dawn (Turf)
 

Classic

Flat Out (Scooter Dickey/Preston Stable LLC)
Game On Dude (Bob Baffert/Lanni Family, Mercedes Stables, Bernard Schiappa)
Tizway (H. James Bond/William L. Clifton Jr.)
Havre de Grace (Larry Jones/Fox Hill Farms Inc.)
Ruler On Ice (Kelly J. Breen/George & Lori Hall)
Uncle Mo (Todd A. Pletcher/Repole Stable)
Stay Thirsty (Todd A. Pletcher/Repole Stable)
To Honor and Serve (Bill Mott/Live Oak Plantation)
So You Think (Aiden O'Brien/Coolmore, et al)
Ice Box (Nick Zito/Robert LaPenta Jr.)
Headache (Mike Maker/Ken Ramsey)
Await The Dawn (Aiden O'Brien/Coolmore)
Rattlesnake Bridge (Kiaran McLaughlin/Mill House)
Drosselmeyer (Bill Mott/WinStar)

Tizway and Twirling Candy?

I wonder what the chances are that Tizway even makes the race.

We'll see. I hope for Bond and Clifton that they get the chance. He worked 6f (1:14.1) today up here..

Havre De Grace. Then she'll get her own blog.

She will get drowned if she runs in the Classic.

You are such a hater.

Could you expand on your reasoning? I thought she proved herself well against Flat Out in the Woodward.

Not saying she will win but I don't see her drowning either.

Paul

Flat Out isn't much.

I think she'd have problems also keeping in touch with the field. Pace wise.

U forgot Ice Box who according to Zito is a GO:confused:

"It's his favorite track and probably be his last race, maybe, you never know, so why not?" Zito said. "He's trained good, he's fit now, he's got all the races and Corey (Nakatani) basically said he made a mistake (being that far back early on)."

It's hard to knock anyone who takes a shot in races, especially since we all complain about horsemen picking spots throughout the year.

Flat Out could win the Classic.

This just feels like the wrong race for Havre de Grace.

O I agree with u, I got no problem with them taking a chance(they did pay for him already) if there is a spot open. I would rather have fields of 14 with the fave 3/1 then fields of 6 with the fave 6/5

Guess there is no point in running him in the Dirt Mile since Jackson Bend is already going there tho?

If Jackson Bend runs back to his race this weekend, everyone else is running for second I think.

If Sidney's Candy runs well on Saturday is he going to the BC?

They both ran 107's saturday and the one time they met she beat him fair and square, yet he has a chance and she'll get drowned? Ok..

I do respect your "feelings" however. Agree to disagree.

Just hope your not on the Uncle Mo train.

HDG
 

Trust Larry Jones he knows best

I thought Repole was going to make the Breeder's Cup look like the USFL or ABA. I can't wait for more of the Repole sideshow leading up to the Breeder's Cup. Is he gonna have another Meet The Mo get together?

Ya think???

Looks like the one to beat to me but, what do I know...

Of all the horses on that list with no chance it's a little funny that two horses who came up with negative remarks on this thread were Flat Out and Havre de Grace. I guess the rest were self explanatory.

As of now, just pencil Awesome Gem in 2nd. :D

Right now, I would think that only three horses are plausible win candidates in the Classic. Once you get beyond Uncle Mo, Flat Out, and Harve De Grace, anyone else would be a reach.

I am again curious why this seems like the wrong race for Harve? She seems like she could be placed anywhere and can finish as well.

The race is a month away so lots can happen but if she were mine, I would be running in the classic.

Paul

Tizway has a huge shot if he's ready. . . The problem I have with this race is that I think Uncle Mo and Tizway are way the most talented horses in the field, but both have giant question marks. Can't really lean on them, but I'm hesitant to play against them too much.

I don't know who said Flat Out has no chance.

If you are referring to me, all I said was that HDG beating him really isn't much of a big deal.

Hard to trust Tizway given the time off and the limited campaign going further than he has ever tried.

I won't be shocked if he wins but I won't be using him.

Paul

I didn't say you said Flat Out had no chance. You said he "isn't much" and BTW said Havre de Grace would get drowned, both of which I found to be peculiar opinions.

He was third in the '09 Jockey Club. . .

Not that it matters, but she actually ran a 105 on Saturday.

As for your " fair and square " contention....I would say she got a trip dynamic far more favorable in her victory over Flat Out, relative to him, than she will get in the Classic, and the distance will very likely make a difference.

Everybody seems to have written off Uncle Mo in the Classic, something I can't do a month before the race, given that he is the most talented horse entering the race, while I think she is FAR less likely to win. But, hey, I've been wrong before.

I don't think people are writing off Uncle Mo and, if anything, are giving him way too much of a chance. I'm not saying he's a throwout by any stretch and is conceivably the most talented horse in the country. However, doesn't he shape up as an absolutely horrible bet given the likelihood that he's one of the favorites? To be asked to go from a mile to 10fs in just his 8th career start, just his 5th of the year, when he has only been beyond a mile as a 3YO once is a tall order, even for a supremely talented horse. Taking that gamble on a horse at 7/2 or thereabouts is beyond risky.

given the field, i don't think you can really dismiss him. so many have a knock or two going in.

I should have said everybody that thinks they're a wiseguy.

Do you really think Uncle Mo will be 7-2? he would be a great play at that price. My guess is that he will be favored and is less than 2-1.

Paul

If he is 7/2 in the gate I will eat the program. If he trains well and the reports are strong from the backside he should be 8/5.. Flat Out, tizway off the bench and a Jones juiced filly are the top three contenders..come now that isnt exactly murders row

How about Giant Oak and Ruler On Ice for 3rd and 4th, respectively.

In the last 10 runnings of the BC Classic the only favorites who went off at less than 2-1 were Zenyatta in 2010, Curlin in 2008, and Bernardini in 2006. I just don't see him having that kind of popularity at the windows. I suppose anything is possible and he has a huge reputation but I think he's more in the 5/2 or 3-1 range.

Repole will make sure he's the favorite:rolleyes:

Uncle Mo will only be 8:5 if there are significant defections.

Repole might make sure he's less than 2-1. I agree with you, at 2-1 or less he's not worth the gamble. Let's hope they all make it to the starting gate.

Giant Oak i can see being there, but not Ruler On Ice, I see 6-8.

I think favoritism, barring anything happening between now and then, will be between Mo and the filly.

I really don't see either being pounded at the windows, as they both have some question marks about them.

I do believe HDG will see more sentiment at the windows than Mo.

Every horse aiming for this race has serious holes in their form.

Hopefully she goes in the Classic for the sheer fact that it makes better betting opportunities in both the Distaff and the Classic.