What if Invasor and Bernardini split?
 

As we all know in this game, just because a horse beats another horse once doesn't mean the results will be the same the next time they square off. Outside of the Lava Man fans everyone almost seems to have accepted that whoever wins the JCGC between Invasor and Bernardini will also win the Classic. What happens if they split the two races and Lava Man is off the board in the Classic? Who is your HOY? Whoever wins the Classic by default? Or would you factor in the trip in both races to see who had a more valid excuse for their loss?

Too much what if ? Who ever has the highest placing in the Breeders Cup will most likely get it, but I will vote BARBARO .

:rolleyes:

That's hardly the case. A recent thread already showed that there is plenty of room for doubt over whether one of the "Big Three" will win the Classic. If you are totally certain one of the Big Three will win the Classic, you can make a bundle betting futures.

I'd say that there is a maximum 60% chance that the BC Classic is won by LM, Bernardini, or Invasor. Before Electrocutionist's death I would have put it a little lower than that.

--Dunbar

Isn't Bernardini like 9/5 or something ridiculously low like that on the futures?

I would say if one of those 3 horses (Invasor, Bernardini and Lava Man) win the BC Classic, they would automatically become HOY, regardless of how they finish in their last prep race. I dont necessarily agree with that but thats how it goes.

12-5 last I looked yesterday (at BetGameday.com and VIPsports.com). And if Pinnacle or TheGreek get their futures up before the JCGC, I expect slightly higher to be offered.

--Dunbar

I agree with Gander and I dont agree either. The emphasis on the Classic is 100x time more important than JCGC. If Lava Man wins the Classic then I have no problem with him winning the award even if he loses his next race. I think he has done more than Invasor or Bernardini.

The question should be, what is all three lose their final Prep.

Just checked, and odds are not posted at Gameday this morning. But it was definitely 12-5 (2.4-1) on Bernardini within the past 2 days. The only change in the "Big Three" that I could see from a few days earlier was that Lava Man had moved from 7-1 to 13-2. I also noticed that David Junior had dropped from 12-1 to 10-1. Those moves could have been explained simply by the loss of Electrocutionist.

--Dunbar

I can't believe the odds are that low for a horse who is training up to the race in Europe for their first start ever on dirt.

I cant either. European horses are so overrated its actually very comical. Here we have a warrior in Lava Man who does nothing but win on both surfaces and people would rather talk about Dave Junior and his accomplishments and criticize Lava Man for only running in CA.

I guess its very fashionable to like the euros. Makes a lot of sense given their huge success in american dirt racing, lol!

In this era of racing to count on a top horse even making the Classic in early September is 2-1 so you'd have to like Bernardini at 6/5 to consider that bet. You'd be better off throwing your money at him at 6/5 in the JCGC.

Sightseek and Gander, I agree completely about David Junior's odds. I'm certainly not saying that those are reasonable odds. I was only re-iterating that the odds on the "Big Three" are good enough to suggest that the BC Classic is not just down to those 3 horses.

FWIW, David Junior is available at World Sports Exchange (wsex.com) at 14-1. And that site's future odds are rarely competitive with what Pinnacle and TheGreek put up.

--Dunbar

These odds are great but the thing that is scary is , will they even be there. Thats the big chance you are taking.

You are looking at it the right way, but I don't think it's as drastic as you wrote.

You can get 2.4-1 now. If you thought there was a 50% chance Bernardini would make the BC Classic, then 2.4-1 is the same as 6-5 on race day. So I don't know what you mean by "to count on a top horse even making the Classic in early September is 2-1".

I would personally put the chance of a top horse not making the BC Classic at about 30% at this point. We are less than 8 weeks away. If my 30% estimate is right, then 2.4-1 now is roughly equivalent to 1.70 to 1 on race day. (70% of 2.4 is 1.7).

So, IMO 2.4-1 now is way better than 6-5 on race day.

--Dunbar

There are defintly alot of what if's. Now having said that The JCGC could could decide HOY if Bern. or Invasor win that race and none of the Big 3 win the BCC classic. No matter what happens in their final race before the BCC if either Lava Man or Invasor wins the Classic they are HOY. If Bernardini wins the JCGC he has sewn up the 3 yrold HOY. Now the big question is, if Inavasor wins the JCGC and Bernardini wins the Classic has Invasor done enough to win HOY. Is winning the Pim Special, Suburban, The Whitney and JCGC a better year than the Preakness, Jim Dandy, The Travers and The Classic. Hmmm. Now if Lava Man wins the Classic than that debate is over he is HOY.
Now even a bigger questin looms what if all three lose their final preps plus don't win the Classic. Who is then HOY?

Yes, I shouldn't have phrased it as 2-1, I meant it in terms of a 50% chance reducing the 12/5 to 6/5.

I just checked again, and the futures are up now:

Bernadini 12 to 5
Invasor 13 to 2
Lava Man 13 to 2
Discreet Cat 20 to 1
David Junior 10 to 1
Suave 40 to 1
Brother Derek 30 to 1
Flower Alley 40 to 1
Jazil 20 to 1
Bright One 20 to 1
lawyer Ron 20 to 1
Sun King 25 to 1
Perfect Drift 40 to 1
Seek Gold 40 to 1
Giacomo 40 to 1
Stevie Wonderboy 30 to 1
Buzzards Bay 50 to 1
Premium Tap 30 to 1
Second of June 40 to 1
Cindago 25 to 1
Bob and John 30 to 1
Dylan Thomas 12 to 1
Shirroco 10 to 1

Dylan Thomas and Shirroco must have been added this morning.

If anyone thinks the winner MUST come from LM, Bernardini, or Invasor, he or she can get almost 4-5 by taking all 3 in futures in this ratio:

If you bet $Y on Lava Man, then bet $Y on Invasor and 2.2 x $Y on Bernardini.

However, for that to be a good bet, the chance that one of those 3 wins the BCC would have to be 56% or more. The reality is, at this point there is probably LESS than a 56% chance that one of the "Big 3" will win the BC Classic. If you strongly disagree with that statement, then you should be loading up on the 3 futures above.

--Dunbar

Has anyone heard anything regarding Bright One? Is he back in training?

He is being pointed towards the Indiana Derby Grade II

I think you would prob go by who finished the best in their last two races (prep and classic).

Actually I really like those odds on Invasor and would consider them on Lava Man. They are way too low on Bernardini for my money. Considering my first mortgage payment is due on the 1st I'm not in the position to be loading up on anything, especially future bets.

Sns
 

What is the latest on Sweetnorthernsaint? I saw him at 30-1 to win the BC Classic a few weeks ago; is he out? Still think he got checked in the stretch of the Preakness (not that it would have made a difference)...

Well, applying my 30% sidelined estimate, 13-2 today is roughly the same as 9-2 on BC day. If Invasor beats Bernardini in the JCGC, that 9-2 would look great. If he gets trounced by Bernardini in the JCGC, the 9-2 won't look so hot. Similar thoughts about Lava Man's final prep.

As a general rule, futures have to be approached with a good deal of caution and skepticism. For example, the list above equates to a 27.6% track take! And it's worse than that because the winner of the BCC might not even be on that list of horses.

That's not to say certain individual horses in that list could not provide value.

Unless I saw a number that I absolutely loved, I would wait until Pinnacle and/or TheGreek put up their futures.

--Dunbar

just resumed training....i wouldn't look for him at churchill, discreet cat either.

and i'm not sure why so many think it's between invasor and bernardini, with lava man sitting alone at the top of the polls. one of them will come out of the jcgc a loser, pretty much guaranteeing no shot at hoy--not if one of the other two wins the bcc! if one of the two wins both, he's hoy. if all three fail in the bcc...well, now, it'll get mighty interesting!!!

It's so great to have a math geek like Dunbar around.. Makes things so much smoother. :D

Actually Both Bernardini and Invasor are ranked higher.
http://www.ntra.com/bc_wtc_ranking.aspx

The Classic Division is leaving me with more questions than answers. I would hope some more American horses get their names posted in top ten polls some time soon. I am hoping that Good Reward, Perfect Drift, and Suave show up soon. Lawyer Ron could show up soon, as well.

Suave did have a rough trip in the Woodward but I think we are much better off if he isn't in the ten best we have to offer.

7-2 at let it ride

I like those odds on Sun King. This horse has been knocking on the door all year long. One more jump in the Woodward and he would have had Invasor beat. I really, really like this horse. He just may be my classic horse if something happens to Bernardini or Bernardini flops in his next race (that probably won't happen).

well, funny, this is from ntra as well:



NTRAU



Week 27 of the 2006 NTRA Thoroughbred Poll conducted by the National Thoroughbred Racing Association (NTRA), covering racing performances through September 10. Current Horse of the Year ranking of the top Thoroughbreds as voted by horseracing media representatives on a 10-9-8-7-6-5-4-3-2-1 basis with first-place votes in parentheses, 2006 record and total points. A-S: Age-Sex, Sex: C-colt, G-gelding, H-horse, F-filly, M-mare.
HORSE AGE-SEX RECORD POINTS PVS PROBABLE NEXT
1. Lava Man (11) 5-G 6-6-0-0 154 1 9/30 Clement L. Hirsch Turf Championship
2. Bernardini (4) 3-C 6-5-0-0 146 2 10/7 Jockey Club Gold Cup
3. Invasor (1) 4-C 4-3-0-0 127 3 10/7 Jockey Club Gold Cup
4. Silver Train 4-C 4-2-1-0 71 4 10/7 Vosburgh Stakes
5. Aragorn 4-C 5-3-2-0 61 5 10/7 Oak Tree Breeders' Cup Mile
6. Gorella 4-F 4-3-0-0 50 6 10/14 First Lady Stakes
7. Barbaro 3-C 5-4-0-0 43 9 Retired
8. Henny Hughes 3-C 2-2-0-0 35 7 10/7 Vosburgh Stakes
9. The Tin Man 8-G 4-3-1-0 33 8 9/30 Clement L. Hirsch Turf Championship
10. Fleet Indian 5-M 5-5-0-0 32 - Undecided

Whats really amazing to me is Flower Alley is still offered as a bet and is only 40/1. He should be minmum 100/1 and even that is too low. Am I the only one who saw his last 2 races?

lol
no, others saw. but many are still in denial.

er, uh, thanks, Ateam. I think.

;>)
--Dunbar

i cant see lava man or invasor being competitive with bernardini. unless david junior or shirocco can run on the dirt, the breeders cup classic is likely to be an easy win for bernardini. i do not think we have seen his best.

I know it is very bizarre they have three rankings one for money, one that includes every division and one for the Classic division. Now how can Lava Man be number one inthe one for everybody, the one you just posted but be number 3 in the Classic divison.