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-   -   8/26: Saratoga (Day 31; Bernard Baruch; $192k C/O) (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=43625)

Kasept 08-26-2011 05:12 AM

8/26: Saratoga (Day 31; Bernard Baruch; $192k C/O)
 
The first clue that Thursday was going to be screwy was David Jacobson winning the NSA-G1 NY Turf Writer's Cup with $30k claimant Mabou. Swiped from sure-to-be-besides-himself Ken Ramsey, Mabou demolished the top level group in the late stages, winning off by 5 widening lengths at 16-1. From there, things got silly with the day's final three races taken off the turf after the late P4 had begun, and three races into the carried over P6. That resulted in "ALL-ALL-ALL" to end both wagers, and tripped the switch on the bizarre '75% of pool auto carryover' rule that came under fire at Belmont a couple of months ago.

While someone on the state's wagering board likely thought they were doing the fair thing giving everyone a chance on another day with the curious concept, the rule more or less robs those that played into the second day of the carry. Shouldn't they simply take the initial carryover pot and move it too the next day while returning the other investment back as refunds? We'll see where this goes from here, seeing as how this oddity was supposed to be addressed after it first came light downstate...

Bernard Baruch is the feature and likely the only grass race for Friday ahead of the sublime Travers card Saturday. Carryover is a total $192k... Heavy weather is expected Sunday with a raceday postponement a rumored possibility, and Tina and I are supposed be in NYC for a family function!


SARATOGA


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: S/HCP, F&M-3+, 1m-IT (P3, DD, Super)

Good race if it stays on lawn. For me, Spring Party and not favorite Deanallean'skitten, is the horse to beat..

Most Likely: #1 Spring Party 7-2 WON ($10.40)
Best Value: #5 Kittylicious 12-1 6th
Exotics Use: #2 Centrina 5-1 7th
Super Add: #4 Deanallen'skitten 3-1 4th


2nd: NY-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 7f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Hot Danger 3-1 6th
Next Best: #7 Page by Page 2-1 WON ($3.70)
Best Value: #1 First Penny 15-1 7th
Super Add: #3 Little Larky 3-1 5th


3rd: S/HCP, 3+, 9f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Frazil 3-1 6th
Best Value: #5 Sea Gaze 5-1 4th
Next Best: #6 Caixa Electronica 8-5 WON ($4.60)


4th: Easy N Dirty-NY, 3+, 7f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Ibboyee 9-5 5th
Best Value: #4 Smokin Hero 4-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #1e Repole entry 8-5 WON ($3.80)/2nd


5th: MSW, 3+, 5.5f-T (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Ballyclough 5-2 WON ($8.20)
Next Best: #5 Santo Gato 7-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 Soultown 4-1 8th
Super Add: #4 Sea Song's Hammer 12-1 7th


<$75 P4 Play:

2: 1-2-3-7
3: 2-3-5-6
4: 1-3-4
5: 2-5-6

4x4x3x3 = 144 x .50 = $72

$0.50 Pick 4 (7/6/1,2,6/2) Paid $21.30


6th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 7f-OFF THE TURF (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #2 Hurling 15-1 WON ($5.50)
Next Best: #6 Adam Rides Again 3-1 2nd


7th: MSW, F&M-3+, 5.5f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #5 Hear Me Roar 8-1 5th
Next Best: #2 Too Clever by Half 5-2 WON ($5.40)
Exotics Use: #4 Silver Meeting 7-2 2nd
Super Add: #7 Enrichment 7-2 9th


8th: OC/C, 3+, 9f (P3, DD, Super)

Ignore ill-advised turf try by Afleet Again, and he's very likeable at 8-1..

Best Value: #5 Afleet Again 8-1 4th
Next Best: #2 To Honor and Serve 6-5 WON ($4.00)
Exotics Use: #7 Gautier 4-1 3rd
Super Add: #4 Slevin 5-1 2nd


9th: 53rd Bernard Baruch (G2_, 3+, 9f-T (DD, Super)

Tremendously competitive edition of this old turf standard that has seen the likes of Tompion (1960), Fort Marcy (1967), Hawaii (1969), Steinlen (1989), Lure (1994), Hap (2000-01) and the great Fourstars Allstar (1992, 1995) in its' winner's circle..

Most Likely: #8 Hymm Book 4-1 6th
Best Value: #6 Boots Ahead 20-1 4th
Exotics Use: #10 Moryba 6-1 5th
Super Add: #2 Turallure 10-1 WON ($20.00)


10th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 1m-IT

Most Likely: #9 Sotique 9-2 --
Next Best: #6 Vee 3-1 WON ($8.10)
Best Value: #1 Frontaine 8-1 --
Super Add: #10 Saucy Jade 7-2 4th


<$150 P6 Play:

5: 2-5
6: 2
7: 2-4-5
8: 5
9: 2-5-6-7-8-10
10: 6-9

2x1x3x1x6x2 = 72 x $2 = $144

$2 Pick 6 (2/2/2/2/2/6) Paid $78.00 (5OF6)


<$75 P4 Play:

7: 2-4-5
8: 2-5
9: 2-5-6-7-8-10
10: 1-6-9-10

3x2x6x4 = 144 x .50 = $72

$0.50 Pick 4 (2/2/2/6) Paid $152.50


Good luck!
Steve

herkhorse 08-26-2011 06:01 AM

Steve, no love for Six Flings in the Easy and Dirty Stakes?
















thud

The Devil 08-26-2011 06:23 AM

I think you should stay where you are at Steve.

Kasept 08-26-2011 10:08 AM

SAR SCR/CHG'S

Sethcarter 08-26-2011 11:55 AM

toga 1..

pk3

12456/7/356
124/7/56

Clip-Clop 08-26-2011 12:06 PM

Great, here we go...

Clip-Clop 08-26-2011 12:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Clip-Clop (Post 803082)
Great, here we go...

That is fine with me!

Sethcarter 08-26-2011 12:30 PM

toga 2...

pk4
17/356/13/28....

10 dollar ps 1

Clip-Clop 08-26-2011 12:33 PM

P4 (PWHL) 7 / 6 / 1, 3 / 2, 4

I hope it is this easy, punched more than once.

Sethcarter 08-26-2011 12:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Clip-Clop (Post 803089)
P4 (PWHL) 7 / 6 / 1, 3 / 2, 4

I hope it is this easy, punched more than once.

i thought it looked chalky also... but the 6 horse in the 3rd carrying 130 pounds is concerning to me... he will probably win tho...

I really liked the odds on the 1 the first leg at 15/1

Sethcarter 08-26-2011 12:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sethcarter (Post 803092)
i thought it looked chalky also... but the 6 horse in the 3rd carrying 130 pounds is concerning to me... he will probably win tho...

I really liked the odds on the 1 the first leg at 15/1


Well, couldnt have been more wrong... LOL

dagolfer33 08-26-2011 12:46 PM

.....after an amazing 3 of 4 pick 4 string at 5 tracks across the country, a feat that would make jms proud, here is my toga early pk4

2) 2,5,7
3) 3,6
4) 1,3,4
5) 6,8

$18 g/luck everybody!

Clip-Clop 08-26-2011 12:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sethcarter (Post 803094)
Well, couldnt have been more wrong... LOL

Still covered.

Clip-Clop 08-26-2011 12:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dagolfer33 (Post 803095)
.....after an amazing 3 of 4 pick 4 string at 5 tracks across the country, a feat that would make jms proud, here is my toga early pk4

2) 2,5,7
3) 3,6
4) 1,3,4
5) 6,8

$18 g/luck everybody!

I have been taking that beating for a looooong while too. Unfortunately we both cannot win this win either. Good luck anyway!

Sethcarter 08-26-2011 12:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dagolfer33 (Post 803095)
.....after an amazing 3 of 4 pick 4 string at 5 tracks across the country, a feat that would make jms proud, here is my toga early pk4

2) 2,5,7
3) 3,6
4) 1,3,4
5) 6,8

$18 g/luck everybody!

LOL... best of luck

dagolfer33 08-26-2011 12:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Clip-Clop (Post 803098)
I have been taking that beating for a looooong while too. Unfortunately we both cannot win this win either. Good luck anyway!

Sure we could, 4/8 dead heat in the 5th??? Good luck, as long as somebody can win something. After yesterday, (E-Sar, L-Evd, L-CT, L-Rem, L-Cby) I am pretty numb to whatever happens.:zz:

Clip-Clop 08-26-2011 01:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dagolfer33 (Post 803100)
Sure we could, 4/8 dead heat in the 5th??? Good luck, as long as somebody can win something. After yesterday, (E-Sar, L-Evd, L-CT, L-Rem, L-Cby) I am pretty numb to whatever happens.:zz:

I am willing to share if you are, just to get off the slide.

Clip-Clop 08-26-2011 01:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Clip-Clop (Post 803089)
P4 (PWHL) 7 / 6 / 1, 3 / 2, 4

I hope it is this easy, punched more than once.

That part was less than easy...

Sethcarter 08-26-2011 01:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sethcarter (Post 803080)
toga 1..

pk3

12456/7/356
124/7/56

Ill take $41...

Sethcarter 08-26-2011 01:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sethcarter (Post 803092)
i thought it looked chalky also... but the 6 horse in the 3rd carrying 130 pounds is concerning to me... he will probably win tho...

I really liked the odds on the 1 the first leg at 15/1

Nope... almost

Clip-Clop 08-26-2011 01:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sethcarter (Post 803107)
Ill take $41...

Better than getting punched in the face anyway.:$:

Sethcarter 08-26-2011 01:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Clip-Clop (Post 803111)
Better than getting punched in the face anyway.:$:

UMMMM, you have a point there..

Toga... 4th

10 D/D
13/2 (hoping the horse takes to the turf)

Sethcarter 08-26-2011 02:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sethcarter (Post 803088)
toga 2...

pk4
17/356/13/28....

10 dollar ps 1

These pk 4 tickets are going to be huge... glad I only have 12 dollars in it...
Anyone have the payouts on the field???????

Clip-Clop 08-26-2011 02:13 PM

Better than I thought...
With: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
7/6/1,2,6 48.37 21.47 60.05 49.35 28.05 25.42 86.90 41.65

Sethcarter 08-26-2011 02:17 PM

toga race 4

pick 3
1238/all/2

10 win 2

Clip-Clop 08-26-2011 02:26 PM

If I had $21.00 for every $.50 I would be very wealthy.

Sethcarter 08-26-2011 02:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sethcarter (Post 803088)
toga 2...

pk4
17/356/13/28....

10 dollar ps 1

Bingo, winner... a massive $21.38

Sethcarter 08-26-2011 02:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sethcarter (Post 803134)
toga race 4

pick 3
1238/all/2

10 win 2

winner... $41.00

Sethcarter 08-26-2011 02:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sethcarter (Post 803112)
UMMMM, you have a point there..

Toga... 4th

10 D/D
13/2 (hoping the horse takes to the turf)

Winner... 45.00

dagolfer33 08-26-2011 02:30 PM

:tro::$:money back is better than no money back, congrats guys.

Clip-Clop 08-26-2011 02:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dagolfer33 (Post 803145)
:tro::$:money back is better than no money back, congrats guys.

A good friend used to say, "better a short price than a long face."

I was rooting for that dead heat.

Sethcarter 08-26-2011 02:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dagolfer33 (Post 803145)
:tro::$:money back is better than no money back, congrats guys.

Thanks, congrats to you as well.. You have a point there... I have only been playing this game for a few years and the learning curve is a killer! People like you, who post on here, has really helped teach me out a ton...

I had a pretty good day yesterday. So praying for a repeat today... "May the racing gods be with us all...

Sethcarter 08-26-2011 02:59 PM

moving to the play along thread... see you all there

Dahoss 08-26-2011 03:43 PM

Some effort by Leparoux there in the 7th. So overrated.

atolunch 08-26-2011 05:51 PM

Great job today Steve!

Had winner of every race in your tabs, tough to do better than that. Plus both P4's and the Conso on the P6!!

Congrats and thanks, and here's to keepin it rollin through the weekend!!!:$::tro:

Kasept 08-26-2011 09:13 PM

Thx Larry.. Was a good, albeit chalky and slightly odd, day. No good excuse for not structuring a winning P6 play. Hope everybody did well.

Down early and up real early with Travers Day tabs and 7:30-8:30a 'Loose on the Lead' on OTB-Ch. 12. Nick Tammaro, Donna Barton Brothers & Mike Welsch join Seth Merrow and I.

'night all..

herkhorse 08-26-2011 09:24 PM

good luck tomorrow!


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