Say what you want about Beyer Speed Figures....
 

...but the 30-1 winner of the 7th at Arlington had a 6-point last out Beyer edge.

Thanks for the heads up.

Hey, I've never seen a horse with an edge that large win at those odds.

Maybe you have.

On synthetic, in a turf race . . . .

The horse was not impossible though.

I see you changed your post from "dirt" to "synthetic". Nice self-catch.

It was an overlay for sure. I hope you scored big.

War Emblem in the Derby I believe had a 6 or 7 last out Beyer edge...that was another good one! (I didn't have it)

War Emblem and now this, gosh they are really coming back to back;)

haha...yes, this could be a pattern emerging.

Yea....if you give me a moment, I can find 10 angles to support every winner. Including, I threw a dart and it landed on the 2

that is about the only way i could have picked that horse is with a dart, I believe i did notice that the whole field of 10 or 12 were only seperated by about 2 lengths at the finish

If you key off her Appalachian race, there is really no other horse in the race that had run anything close to that. She was marooned on the far outside, raced 5 wide, yet still managed to get within 6.5 lengths of the best turf filly in America.

2009 BC mile Furthest Land was 20-1, he had a previous BSF that te rest of field was nowhere near...

Don't worry, you're making your dart throwing plenty evident..

As it is, you're about three seconds from needing to find somewhere else to advertise your prowess, so I'd keep attempts to inhibit post-race analysis to a minimum. Unlike you, a lot of people here are interested in learning how to identify betting opportunities, and figuring out why $60 horses got missed is pretty invaluable.

:tro:

That's maybe the best recent big race example.

I didn't get a bet down, but to Justin's point, Santina Dond was not a difficult filly to include or even key off her Thoro-Graph figs as well. She was a crazy price considering she had gotten back to her top (7.5) last time, and was 3rd/4th 'fastest' among Happy Choice (6.5), Notassharpasuthink (6.75) and Holidaysatthefarm (7.5).

I think what made her float to the 30-1 was how much speed was signed on and her appearance as perhaps the cheapest looking of the speeds. To her credit, she was only beaten 6+ lengths by Winter Memories in April (as I see Kev pointed out). I'd like to hear the story of how she went from Keeneland yearling to Poland.

Poland is the new Dubai. As soon as Pat starts a RacenightKrakow.com website they will be there. Of course they have the advantage of not handicapping themselves with synthetic surfaces AND the Keilbasa stand at Warsaw Park is off the charts

It's not hard to figure out why the horse was 30/1 --- it was 4th in a starter alw race two-starts back -- and didn't win the day it got the big figure last out.

I'm being super Captain Obvious with this point --- but, whenever a "Top last out fig" horse wins and pays more than 20/1 ... they are typically coming off a big new top and have "cheap" form on the go-back.

Dancing In Silks won the Breeders Cup Sprint less than two years ago at 25/1 as the top Beyer horse coming out of a nose win in a super-fast Cal Cup race.

Obviously War Emblem and Charismatic both won the Kentucky Derby at a huge price as "top last out Beyer" horses -- I think Charismatic was 30/1 ... both of them had very "cheap" form prior to their freakish performances that came from out of nowhere in the Ill Derby (War Emblem's case) and Lexington Stakes (Charismatic's case)

Given the names of the connections, Vladamir Kazakov owns and Gennadi Dorochenko trains, I can connect the dots from Lexington to Poland.

I was joking with someone a few months ago -- there was a card at Mountaineer Park that had 3 different imports from Poland racing on it.

Uh huh.. Having a Polish last name, I was able to make that connection too. Who are these guys and what's the back story?

PHUCK POLAND!

"Each year, around 30,000 horses are exported from Central and Eastern Europe for slaughter in Italy, France and Belgium in what can fairly be described as one of the cruellest and least regulated aspects of Europe’s live animal trade. Poland is the biggest exporter of live horses for slaughter in Europe. Ten years ago there were one million horses in Poland but that number has now been reduced to 500,000."

http://www.viva.org.uk/campaigns/horses/briefing.htm

europe doesn't quite view horses like we do, with certain breeds existing solely as a source of food..much like some of our breeds of cattle over here. i think it's gross. but no doubt they disagree.

http://www.barntowire.com/2011/APnotes110503.html

Prior to Arlington I think he was racing at Mountaineer as Doug pointed out and doing very well win wise.

You would almost never see figure horses overlooked like this on dirt, even the ones with horrible back form. Even the people out for a Sunday stroll discount the value of turf figures. Maybe that's a good reason to pay more attention.:rolleyes:

yes, to me race seemed absolutely loaded with speed ----closers did come flying but a bit too late and the horse Dominguez rode seemed blocked the most of all

They are Russians, not Poles, and both owner and trainer are former jockeys.

You'll find out all about him this weekend in the DRF when Marcus Hersh writes a DRF Weekend piece about him...which was interestingly assigned before the stakes race win.

Outside of his own racing entity, and Kazakov, Dorochenko's other main owners are Mongolian, and trawl around the AP front side to watch works in the morning, chain smoking and speaking Russian as if they just came off the steppe.

I remember that even Beyer kicked himself (in his post race column) for not putting something on War Emblem in the Derby. He had found enough reasons to NOT bet him, despite the big BSF.

--Dunbar

Here's a textbook example of the usefulness of Beyer Figures finding value ... this was a case where a horse who was truly 'the most likely winner' in the entire field on paper went off at 15/1.

Today's 2nd race at PID.




http://www1.drf.com/drfPDFChartRaces...=20110816&RN=2


#6 Sunshine Bernie is 6-for-57 lifetime -- but 2-for-2 lifetime on synthetic -- and more importantly 2-for-2 lifetime at PID.

So -- Sunshine Bernie is 2-for-2 here (wins at 10/1 and 3/1) and just 4-for-55 everywhere else.

The Winning Beyer Par for 16K claimers at PID is 78. No horse in the field had run better than a 77 last time out. So, obviously, we know it's going to take something in the 77-to-78 range to win this.

Sunshine Bernie exceeded par at PID in both races -- running an 82 and 79. But both races occured in the year 2009.

He made 20 total starts in 2009 -- in his 18 away from PID he never ran a figure better than 74. In his two at PID he ran 79 and 82. So, obviously, he loves PID.

Now, the important part, has Sunshine Bernie improved or regressed since 2009 when he ran those two races?

2009: 3 figures before PID races - 69, 68, 69 -- 3 figures after his two PID races 71, 43, 74

2011: Last 3 figures before todays race: 73, 80, 70


It's crystal clear that this horse is better in 2011 -- than in 2009 when he ran those two winning races that exceeded winning par in his only two tries.

Cold exacta was $141.40 -- Sunshine Bernie is now 3-for-3 here (wins at 10/1, 3/1, and 15/1) and 4-for-55 everywhere else.