5/25: Belmont Park ($43k C/O)
 

It wasn't exactly a great day for big win mutuels, but it was a fun afternoon at Pimlico Saturday, and profitable depending on your betting style. Got up early with the hit on the early P4 ($427) which paid twice the parlay, and then had to tread through the chalk until the feature. As harped on for two weeks on ATR, Derby horses are the place to start in the Preakness, and Shackleford proved out with yet another gutty performance. It's hard not to be thrilled for Dale Romans and his wacky clan, hard-working, under-appreciated Jesus Castanon, the classy Lauffer/Cubbage connections and even Taylor Made who get a needed boost as the purveyors of Forestry.

Animal Kingdom was certainly honorable in defeat, and loomed a winner midstretch despite being left with too much to do. As mentioned over the fortnight, I thought Shackleford might have dug in even more gamely in the Derby had the challengers been in his field of vision. In the Preakness, the Forestry chestnut rebuffed Astrology's inside challenge at the top of the lane and immediately answered Animal Kingdom with a spurt forward when that rival came up to him in deep stretch. I expect his win should send the 'soft trip beneficiary' naysayers into the shadows.

Shack's win tote was nice and the $114 exacta was generous, but Astrology buried my own tri/super prospects. The Stonestreet/Bolton ran a good race and got a clever 'save every inch' ride from Smitty. It was a satisfying end to a very fun day and I hope everyone did well! Focus turns to New York with the Met Mile and Belmont Weekend less than one and three weeks away, and a $43k P6 C/O available to start the raceweek..


BELMONT PARK


POST-SCRATCHES


2nd: CLM/N2L, 3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #6 Karakorum Budman 15-1 3rd
Next Best: #3 Wascally Rabbit 5-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #5 Mystic Era 12-1 WON ($7.10)


3rd: OC/N1X, F&M-3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Just 6 but tricky and interesting after excluding Cautionary Tale..

Most Likely: #3 Does It Every Time 9-5 2nd
Best Value: #2 Victoria Lynn 12-1 4th
Next Best: #1 Alseera 2-1 WON ($8.90)
Exotics Use: #4 Tempest Storm 7-2 3rd


4th: NY-MDN CLM, 3+, 6f (P6, P3, DD)

$43k P6 C/O Starts Here..

Most Likely: #3 Bustin Rocks 2-1 WON ($3.40)
Next Best: #6 Rocky Fortune 7-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #1 Cool Operator 8-1 3rd


5th: S/ALW, 3+, 7f-T (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #8 Pegasus Tommy D. 5-2 3rd
Next Best: #4 Storm On the Moon 3-1 Eased
Exotics Use: #3 Don't Fooli Houli 4-1 5th
Super Add: #6 Targhee Pass 5-1 WON ($11.00)


<$50 P4 Play:

2: 3-5-6
3: 1-2-3-4-6
4: 3
5: 3-4-8

3x5x1x3 = $45


6th: MSW, 3+, 8.5f-IT (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Don't resign yourself here to the two glaring players. Yes, #1 Bluember and #9 Philly Ace (half to Slambino!) have an edge, but #2 Dynamite Dude and #3 Storm Pursuit deserve long looks, and #4 Break the Glass from white hot Goldberg appear capable. Then note that Clement/Live Oak unveil #8 Za Approval, a half to the wonderful 20X winner (14 stakes) Revved Up and BC Mile winner Miesque's Approval..

Most Likely: #1 Bluember 5-2 4th
Best Value: #2 Dynamite Dude 15-1 5th
Next Best: #3 Storm Pursuit 5-1 6th
Exotics Use: #9 Philly Ace 3-1 WON ($6.60)


7th: OC/N1X, 3+, 7f-T (P3, DD, Super)

This is a treacherous spot if 9yo I've Got Speed doesn't run his typical race..

Most Likely: #1 I've Got Speed 3-1 WON ($4.50)
Next Best: #3 New Yawker 7-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #4 I Ain't No Saint 8-1 3rd
Super Add: #5 Our Friend Harvey 8-1 6th


8th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 8.5f-IT (DD, Super)

Best Value: #6 Arnell 5-1 5th
Next Best: #1 Devon Rock 5-2 6th
Exotics Use: #2 (POE) Capital Market 2-1 2nd/4th
Super Add: #7 Sky Blazer 4-1 3rd


9th: CLM, F&M-3+, 1m-T (Super)

Fun betting affair..

Best Value: #2 Australis Princess 5-1 7th
Next Best: #8 Rage of Aquarius 5-2 5th
Exotics Use: #7 It's Not for Love 6-1 4th
Super Add: #1 Much Fanfare 4-1 WON ($9.60)


<$150 P6 Play:

4: 3
5: 4-8
6: 1-2-3-9
7: 1
8: 1-2-6
9: 2-7-8

1x2x4x1x3x3 = 72 x $2 = $144


<$75 P4 Play:

6: 1-2-3-9
7: 1-3-4
8: 1-2-6
9: 1-2-7-8

4x3x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72


Good luck!
Steve

Devon Rock is the 1 Steve :)

Got it. Thx Tom!

BELMONT CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY:

Weather: Sunny
Track: Fast
Turf: Good
Notes: Inner Rail @18' / Widener Rail @ 27'

I really like Related today.

I have a feeling they'll run him tomorrow on dirt.

Damn. . . you were right. Terrible decision.

I really hate Belmont sometimes. Only there would you see a horrendous 3-1 like Alseera gallop like that.

I didn't bet the race, but how was she a horrible 3-1 shot? She was the third choice in a field of six and the only runner w/ any room for improvement. . . If it's a field size complaint, though, I can see that.

The field she beat in her maiden race was atrocious, she had a major figure disadvantage and she was cutting back in distance off a long layoff. If it were anybody but McLaughlin/Darley, the horse would've been 10-1 and run like it.

*like

Going to try Green Bluff here.

Is the rail out far enough?

The field she faced as a 2yo isn't remotely germane now. It's 8 months later and she was a 2-1 second choice. Not sure why there's such a mystery as to expectations that she run well.

Jermaine was always my favorite Jackson... Just sayin.

Really? I think the field she faced mattered quite a bit given what an unknown quantity she was off the bench. It was explained in detail by Andy and Jason that McLaughlin is not that great off of these types of layoffs and the MSW field she had faced was particularly bad.

That being said, she actually went off a bigger price than I thought she would. I didn't bet the race but she had a perfect trip against a field that was far softer than the average N1X of any type this time of year.

You're right, we should just assume that every McLaughlin returnee is going to run off the page regardless of past performance.

The past performances are from 8 months ago when she was a 2yo... Obviously there was an issue that she only is getting back to the races now, and the improvement from 2 to 3 is typically pretty big. She was a $500,000 yearling by Distorted Humor out of a full sister to Anees. It's a big surprise that she may have actual talent?

Right, because we've never seen Darley blow a ton of money on well-bred horses who can't run before. The point is that the horse was unbettable at 3-1, so you either have to pass the race or play against her and cross your fingers that she's not going to jump into a new stratosphere first time back.

Belmont 6th
.50 late 4
1,3/ 1,3,12/ 2,5/ 2,4,8

$40 win 3

Mclaughlin is 4 for 14 off layoffs the last yr at Belmont with a Plus 52% ROI

I think you guys are all sort of right. Yes, she did improve and based on Kiaran's numbers coming back and the field she beat last time was tough to bet.

But, she didn't exactly have to beat much in the race and didn't run that well. It's not like the 2-3 finishers are very good and she was able to get a perfect trip off the other contenders who dueled. Not a playable horse IMO, but also not totally out of the ordinary either.

No he isn't.

thats what equibase trackmaster has him at

She's a Shadwell purchase, and you know their use of money is consistenty more judicious. I didn't bet the race other than use her (and others) in the P3's & P4, but Eric Donovan pointed in the right direction making her the second choice. I just can't see why you're making out like this was some stunning putover. She won by a couple lengths in 1:10.1. Likely a low/mid 80's Beyer, in line with natural development from 2 to 3. What's so shocking after she left the scene at 2 breaking her maiden with a 75?

My guess is closer to 90 today, and based on the field she beat in her maiden race, that 75 even looked a little generous. The bottom line is like I said, if it wasn't a McLaughlin horse, she would've been 10-1 or higher and most likely run like it.

To play this horse, you had to (a). completely disregard the poor field behind her in her maiden race, (b). assume she'd improve 10-15 points off an 8-month layoff and (c). assume this wasn't a tightener for something longer, considering she had last run at a mile and McLaughlin's layoff numbers. For all of that, you got 3-1. Things like that just make the race unplayable.

Anybody want to post top two from races 6,7,8 for me? Equibase mobile is sucking.

6: 9-4-10

7: 1-3-4

Race 6 was 9-4-10. They're going in the gate for the 7th right now.

Thanks, Nick.

No problem. Race 7 was 1-3-4.

Wow couldn't have been further off in either of those.

Sorry, Scav. Didn't see your post. Thanks to you too.

The problem is that isn't separating surface, amount of layoff, etc. Too broad for my taste.

This Curatolo kid is starting to get on my f*cking nerves.

:tro:

Even though I thankfully had Much Fanfare, he's beaten me plenty of times this meet. He's getting better and better mounts too. Could be Leparoux part deux.

I just can't seem to catch the kid, Joe. Driving me batsh*t crazy. I couldn't bring myself to use that horse. Persaud is just God awful on the turf. I needed the 2 or 7 for nice doubles.:wf

It seems like results come in a half hour late somedays. I usually end up having to call my phonebet acct and find out that way.