6/11 (BEL): Belmont Stakes Probables/Possibles
 

Belmont Stakes probable starters:

Animal Kingdom Graham Motion 2nd - Preakness (J. Velazquez)
Brilliant Speed Tom Albertrani 7th - Ky. Derby (J. Rosario)
Isn’t He Perfect Doodnauth Shivmangal 9th - Preakness
Master of Hounds Aidan O'Brien 5th - Ky. Derby (G. Gomez)
Monzon Ignacio Correas IV 6th - Peter Pan
Mucho Macho Man Kathy Ritvo 6th - Preakness (R. Dominguez)
Nehro Steve Asmussen 2nd - Ky. Derby
Prime Cut Neil Howard - Peter Pan (E. Prado)
Ruler On Ice Kelly Breen 2nd - Federico Tesio
Santiva Eddie Kenneally 6th - Ky. Derby
Shackleford Dale Romans 1st - Preakness (J. Castanon)
Stay Thirsty Todd Pletcher 12th - Ky. Derby

Possibles:

Harlan’s Hello Doodnauth Shivmangal 1st - Op. claiming

Didn't Prime Cut show he couldn't really stay even 9 furlongs? What makes them think he wants 12.

Punch me in the mouth and hit me over the head with a board and take half my bet if I decide to bet Mucho Macho Man again. At least I'll have half my bet left.

But he lost a shoe! :D....Yeah I was sucked in. Oh well. Learned my lesson.

The extra ground is definitely going to make a difference for Isn't He Perfect.

Doogal will send!! A true stayer

Hey, we all have at least one in our past. #ilovejaycito

Nicole, I can only imagine your shoe closet. Puts Sarah Jessica Parker to shame no doubt.

I don't know if I have been brain washed by the tactics of many of today's connections (by babying and over protecting horses), but I really don't understand or see the need for MMM (and for that matter Animal Kingdom/Shackelford) to run at Belmont. Obviously there is no TC at stake, so why run for the 3rd time in 5 weeks? Both horses (AK & Shack) have run big the last 2 races, so why not sit out the Belmont and rest up for the summer campaign?

As for Stay Thirsty , did anyone tell Repole that 1 1/2 means the distance of the race and not to complete it in an hour and half time.

Master of Hounds worked this morning and is still greenlighted for the Belmont, in what would be his third international ship in 2.5 months.

Sadly, where she has shoes, I have only yellowing win tickets on Borrego... Sun King... Wilco... Desert Party.... whoever it was i bet on in the Derby last year... whoever it is I'll bet on at Belmont this year...

if he's healthy, why not? big purse money involved

Wilko!

If a horse manages to win two thirds of the triple crown in this crop they are probably going to win 3yo championship honors.

In AK and Shack you are talking about horses that had 4 & 5 career starts going into the Derby. Now you are talking about them racing for the 3rd time in 5 weeks. Is it a bit excessive for a young lightly raced horse? I don't know what the right answer is , like I said maybe I have been influenced by the light schedules that many of the older horses have taken over the last couple of years.

As far as the purse goes, there are plenty of big ones in the summer as well.

I guess it might be an interesting poll question. What would you do if you were the owner of AK, Shack or MMM? Would you race for the 3rd time in 5 weeks or would you give your horse a break before prepping for the mid summer derbys and an eventual trip to the BC.

If I was an owner, and the horse was eating up and training fine and not losing much weight, I'd run no doubt. I'd run whenever I could if those conditions in the first sentence were met. Shoot, I wouldnt even mind if my trainer actually raced my horse to get it in top shape!

Why didn't he just stay in the U.S.? I always figured they would give the Belmont Stakes a go.Is it cheaper to fly him back and forth, rather than rent a room?

What is the max # that can go? 14?

On the brightside of things,the Woody Stephens is gonna look great with The Factor OUT.

The Belmont field will be limited to sixteen (16) starters.

Q: Why does the Belmont only payout to first 5 while every other NY stake pays to last?

THanks for info

To me, I can see Animal Kingdom with his running style going in the Belmont, Shackleford is a more difficult question, on the one hand I don't see him getting 12 furlongs, on the other hand I think Woody Stevens, who knew a bit about winning the Belmont, use to say it was a speed horse's race. Mucho Macho Man is a younger horse and should not run in the Belmont, he will be much more a factor later in the year. I will look long and hard at Master of Hounds again but his connections are idiots in my opinion...

Didn't Woody Stephens used to say, "If you can get a mile, you can go a mile and a half" or something similar to that..?

Alot of folks are under the impression that closers should dominate the Belmont. Tis not the case.

Funny - same discussion I had with the owner of Shack yesterday. The bottom line, they think he is getting better every day and if healthy it is worth a shot. Although...I know they are looking at specific plans for later in the year which would be fun if it worked out.

Unless some real speed signs up here Shackleford is going to be really tough. Animal Kingdom will be forced to go too fast too early and have nothing left. After a half in the Preakness I said to my wife the the leaders will finish at the back.. 2 of them did but Shackleford just kept going.

Tony Black had a great quote Monday about front-running routers with which Rich Migliore heartily agreed:

"It's not how fast you're going. It's how you're going fast."

Stayers in a comfortable rythym that aren't draining the red blood cell/oxygen reserves stored in the spleen because they haven't been stressed, can keep going a long time... longer than their pedigrees 'say' they can. In the process, they've put those behind them in a difficult position of having to chase, and many times panic. It's part of the dynamic of why horses on/near the lead fare as well as they do in the Belmont.

On top of this, is the myopia of those who seem insistent on refusing to notice that Shackleford's dam Oatsee has repeatedly produced steadfast route-goers including Orientate daughter Lady Joanne, an Alabama (10f) winner.

If Commendable can win the Belmont, any horse can.

No kidding about Oatsee SB - I am upset they sold Oatsee in foal to an AP Indy last year.....talk about someone getting a good deal (even at around ~$1.5M)!!!!!!!!!!

It's actually the spleen that stores red blood cells in the horse. As for the stress component, remember that Shackleford was a handful going to the gate at Pimlico and from what I've read is typically a "hot-blooded" horse.

Can you give horses beta blockers to calm them down?

Great Hunter ring a bell?:rolleyes:

He probably went faster early than most people think in the Kentucky Derby. The Preakness seemed like a moderate pace. I feel AK will adapt to any style.

i figured that both would skip after the preakness...that was based on horses like street sense, who's trainer said 'what's the point?' when asked if he was going to belmont after losing to curlin.
however, i hope they both go...and in the current climate, i expect to see more racing rather than less. horses aren't commanding the stud fees they used to for one..and these horses don't have much separating them at this point. winning another classic, should animal kingdom or shackleford manage it, would be a huge boost for them when it comes time for them to retire. typically, when the breeding business takes a hit, like it has been recently, horses run longer. real quiet, silver charm and the like ran at four. then, when business boomed, they couldn't get them to the shed quickly enough. any time you see more racing rather than less, it's a good thing. these horses can handle it, it's the trainers who shy away.

also, shackleford evidently flourished after the derby-he apparently needed the race. he didn't quite hang in there in fla, or in ky-but look at how he ran in baltimore.

Excuse me. Spleen. Thx RT.. Fascinating topic regarding pre-race v. in-race 'anxiety'... Not sure pre-race eagerness/tension necessarily precludes a 'run-off' mentality or lactic acid build-up. I sent Allday an article regarding stamina/blood cell distribution in advance of next week because I love this question as a discussion point.

This will be a very interesting segment. There is so much made of pre-race antics it would be great to have Allday's perspective.

Paul

I said to a friend before the race that Shackleford looked like DaTara, a sweaty mess before his Belmont win. It doesn't help I said this 30 seconds before the race. Point being, this same person turned to me as the horses loaded in for the 2008 Belmont and said "DaTara looks like a longshot to get five furlongs."

That was when I learned that prerace appearances don't always tell the story.

don't know but heard there was another horse that used to get worked up before races... think his name was Seattle Slew

Don't Storm Cats gets notoriously lathered up before races? Forestry's by Storm Cat.

"you ever see a spleen that large?"