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-   -   4/23 (GP): Mandatory Pay Rainbow 6/Discussion (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=41942)

Kasept 04-20-2011 02:51 PM

4/23 (GP): Mandatory Pay Rainbow 6/Discussion
 
7th (4:15)

7 Furlongs | Open | 3 Year Olds And Up Maiden Claiming ($12,500) | Purse: $19,800

1 Edge Ahead Gallardo A A 116 $12,500 L
2 Include Traci Saez L 116 $12,500 FTL
3 Wise Blitz Dominguez E 123 $12,500 L
4 Guiding Spirit Maragh S 116 $12,500 L
5 Game On Santiago Javier 123 $12,500 L
6 Captain Crench Bocachica O 116 $12,500 L
7 Halo West Rodriguez J I 113 $12,500 L
8 Alice's Alex Madrid S O 116 $12,500 L
9 Walk the Tiger Bernardini D 116 $12,500 L
10 Marias Pass Alvarez J L 118 $12,500 Blk-On L
11 Rumbletown Curatolo R 109 $12,500 L
12 Our Redemption Garcia Jose A 123 $12,500 L
AE Indian Fog Lopez P 123 $12,500 L
AE Norwich Cadet Solis A 116 $12,500 L
AE Mountain Chapel Vazquez R A 116 $12,500 L
AE Late Payment Nelson L 123 $12,500 L



8th (4:45)

5 Furlongs (Turf) | Open | 3 Year Olds And Up Claiming ($20,000 - $15,000) | Purse: $28,100

1 Danny's Prayer Sanchez J 119 $15,000 L
2 Reign of Kings Bocachica O 123 $20,000 L
3 Walt's Whiz Lopez P 121 $20,000 L
4 Notonthesamepage Cruz M R 121 $20,000 L
5 Lighten Up Rodriguez J I 111 $20,000 L
6 Foolish Honor Alvarez J L 116 $20,000 L
7 Sunkist Ruckus Nunez E O 121 $20,000 L
8 Mipando Trujillo E 119 $15,000 L
9 Wild Storm Cat Saez L 121 $20,000 L
10 Renick Creek Garcia L 119 $15,000 L
11 Si Senora Dominguez E 116 $20,000 L
12 Knight Shot Baird E T 119 $15,000 L
AE Mustang Island Bravo J 119 $15,000 L
AE Show the Way J Bocachica O 121 $20,000 L
AE Blue Tape Leyva J C 121 $20,000 L
AE Shanda D Trujillo E 116 $20,000 L



9th (5:15)

6 Furlongs | Open | 3 Year Olds Maiden Special Weight | Purse: $63,600

1 Stormy Parade Saez L 122 Blk-Off L
2 Meadow Cat Bravo J 122
3 Mr. Oz Trujillo E 122 FTL
4 No Paparazzi Madrid M 122 L
5 Solar d'Oro Madrid S O 122 Blk-On L
6 Vimana Sanchez J 122 L
7 Christiesborntorun Lopez P 122 L
8 Peasant Bocachica O 122
9 Hebert Hall Solis A 122 FTL
10 Zero Rate Policy Alvarez J L 117 L



10th (5:45)

1 Mile (Turf) | Fillies and Mares | 3 Year Olds And Up Allowance | Purse: $66,900

1 Heritage House Saez L 119 L
2 Sovereign Crisis Bravo J 116 L
3 Snow Trial Garcia L 112
4 Zaniah Alvarez J L 107 L
5 Morningsideheights Baird E T 119 L
6 Silver Rock (IRE) Curatolo R 112 FTL
7 Duchess of Doom Bocachica O 119 L
8 More Is Better Solis A 119 L
9 Performing Jara F 123 L
10 Waquoit's Dance Trujillo E 119 L
11 Ithinkihadthatone Lopez P 119 L
12 Hope and Luck Sanchez J 119 L
AE Upfrontn'dangerous Leyva J C 119 L
AE Miss Muffin Cruz M R 119 L



11th (6:15)

1 1/16 Miles (Turf) | Open | 3 Year Olds And Up Allowance | Purse: $66,900

2 Catalan Curatolo R 112 L
3 Hariolus (BRZ) Lopez P 119 L
4 Storm Chart Jara F 119 L
5 Chinglish Bravo J 116 L
6 Laguna Moon Marquez C H Jr 119 L
1 Capital Market Trujillo E 119 L
7 Saint Jude Jurado L 119 L
8 Houngun Saez L 119 L
9 Storm Warnings Bocachica O 112 L
10 Pacmanstephen Leyva J C 112 L
11 Dover Beach Solis A 116 L
12 Gathering Cloud Cruz M R 119 L
13 AE Troubles Comin Garcia Jose A 119 L
1a AE Liston Trujillo E 119 L

A-Coupled: Capital Market and Liston



12th (6:45)

1 1/8 Miles (Turf) | Fillies and Mares | 3 Year Olds And Up Maiden Claiming ($25,000 - $22,500) | Purse: $27,300

1 Misia Luisa Dominguez E 114 $22,500 L
2 Chance Review Bravo J 123 $25,000 L
3 Lotsa Noodles Madrid M 114 $22,500 L
4 Poppin's Pride Garcia L 121 $22,500 L
5 Rachel's Girl Smith A E 116 $25,000 L
6 Shahadaroba Curatolo R 116 $25,000 L
7 Essence of Faith Suckie M C 121 $22,500 L
8 Natasha's Gold Rodriguez J I 104 $22,500 L
9 Diaper Dandy Trujillo E 121 $22,500 Blk-On L
10 Persistence Cruz M R 123 $25,000 L
11 Avorio Alvarez J L 116 $22,500 L
12 Sassidy Lopez P 121 $22,500 L
AE Adelaide's Mink Leyva J C 116 $25,000 L

lemoncrush 04-20-2011 03:02 PM

Wow..... Looks daunting to say the least.

hockey2315 04-20-2011 03:03 PM

I already put together a syndicate and found out that I can't place the bet in NJ or CT. Driving Parx might be my last shot. . . ugh. Looking at the entries, I am not confident.

knickslions2 04-20-2011 03:04 PM

Daunting indeed. Noticed another D'Oro in the mix.

jms62 04-20-2011 03:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hockey2315 (Post 770371)
I already put together a syndicate and found out that I can't place the bet in NJ or CT. Driving Parx might be my last shot. . . ugh. Looking at the entries, I am not confident.

I'm not good enough a handicapper as you to put together a "syndicate" however I did gather up a bunch of friends ;) Are you sure Parx is taking it?

robfla 04-20-2011 03:42 PM

I have to assume that this day is treated very differently from a strategic point of view, especially in relation to the previous P6's at GP.

Any suggestions, strategies?

How much would be a "right" amount to put into it??

hockey2315 04-20-2011 04:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jms62 (Post 770382)
I'm not good enough a handicapper as you to put together a "syndicate" however I did gather up a bunch of friends ;) Are you sure Parx is taking it?

Haha no, not yet. Will probably call them tomorrow if one of the Kentucky "syndicate" members can't play it.

outofthebox 04-20-2011 04:32 PM

I'm just hoping for some good weather! We all know how quick GP management is for cancelling turf races at the last moment...

3kings 04-20-2011 04:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hockey2315 (Post 770390)
Haha no, not yet. Will probably call them tomorrow if one of the Kentucky "syndicate" members can't play it.

Just out of curiosity, what kind of $$$ are the "syndicate" tossing in?

hockey2315 04-20-2011 04:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 3kings (Post 770401)
Just out of curiosity, what kind of $$$ are the "syndicate" tossing in?

Less than you think. . . I had planned on putting in more, but then I put things in normal Pk6 terms and realized it was overkill. I think a ticket over $600 is too much.

hockey2315 04-20-2011 05:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hockey2315 (Post 770403)
Less than you think. . . I had planned on putting in more, but then I put things in normal Pk6 terms and realized it was overkill. I think a ticket over $600 is too much.

Tickets plural I should say

santana 04-20-2011 05:10 PM

Twinspires has a socalled players pool, and they are going to put together a 100K ticket,and people can put in as little as 10.00 freaken dollars...
That is pretty sick, and they will probably hit it, and it very possble people will lose money on the deal.....
Even if they hit, and are the only ticket, you might get at best 40-1 for your money.....thats if the pool is 4 million or so....
I will pass Twinspires, thanks anyway.

Scav 04-20-2011 06:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hockey2315 (Post 770371)
I already put together a syndicate and found out that I can't place the bet in NJ or CT. Driving Parx might be my last shot. . . ugh. Looking at the entries, I am not confident.

Parx is questionable also, they just announced on FB that they are 'taking' the wager, but I wouldn't be confident in their ability to take it for a dime

declansharbor 04-20-2011 07:35 PM

Not that this means one iota, but I wasnt able to wager on the Rainbow 6 a few weeks ago thru my phonebet account nor in person at the local Turf Club.. The phonebet attendant even told me that my .50 cent late P4 bets arent available over the phone, even if it totalled 54$, and that i had to use either .com or place bets in person...What a joke!

philcski 04-20-2011 09:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hockey2315 (Post 770403)
Less than you think. . . I had planned on putting in more, but then I put things in normal Pk6 terms and realized it was overkill. I think a ticket over $600 is too much.

We are putting together about $1k, but some of the tickets will repeat.

First run through, it's a VERY tough sequence.

Scav 04-21-2011 06:07 PM

Found out today that at least in the Arlington tote system, you can only bet 4600 combination on a single ticket. The tote manager 'assumed' that it was the same way at other locations.

Just a heads up for people getting a little nuts

blackthroatedwind 04-21-2011 06:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski (Post 770432)
First run through, it's a VERY tough sequence.


In related news, Sunday is Easter.

jenroypa 04-21-2011 06:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by declansharbor (Post 770420)
Not that this means one iota, but I wasnt able to wager on the Rainbow 6 a few weeks ago thru my phonebet account nor in person at the local Turf Club.. The phonebet attendant even told me that my .50 cent late P4 bets arent available over the phone, even if it totalled 54$, and that i had to use either .com or place bets in person...What a joke!

I was at the turf club this afternoon by the stadiums.. They said they will take the bet on Saturday.. Something about 1 ticket winner was against PA racing law -which is why they cant normally take the bet. But since that isnt the case Saturday, they can take the .10 bet.

NTamm1215 04-21-2011 10:00 PM

GP (04/23): Rainbow 6 Discussion
 
Have at it.

johnny pinwheel 04-21-2011 10:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by robfla (Post 770384)
I have to assume that this day is treated very differently from a strategic point of view, especially in relation to the previous P6's at GP.

Any suggestions, strategies?

How much would be a "right" amount to put into it??

if it lasts until saturday. going overboard with thousand dollar tickets is not a way to go. do that tommorrow. the chances of 1 person hitting that day are going to be slim. as someone mentioned groups will have almost every combo covered...the betting sites are trying to have huge pools of people involved...it might actually pay squat....try for the big ticket tommorrow(friday)......if no one hits play a few bucks saturday...everyone and their brother will be playing a million combos saturday....buy mega million tickets your better off. i laugh people are saying its tough sequence..........no ****, i've been chasing it for weeks....what makes saturday any different other than a zillion people will probably hit it. tommorrow is the day to take one last stab.

GPK 04-21-2011 10:49 PM

Notonthesamepage looks like a nice play against in the 8th. I like the 2,3 and 8 in that race, especially the 8. Walder is just ridiculous on the cut back.

philcski 04-21-2011 11:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by johnny pinwheel (Post 770693)
if it lasts until saturday. going overboard with thousand dollar tickets is not a way to go. do that tommorrow. the chances of 1 person hitting that day are going to be slim. as someone mentioned groups will have almost every combo covered...the betting sites are trying to have huge pools of people involved...it might actually pay squat....try for the big ticket tommorrow(friday)......if no one hits play a few bucks saturday...everyone and their brother will be playing a million combos saturday....buy mega million tickets your better off. i laugh people are saying its tough sequence..........no ****, i've been chasing it for weeks....what makes saturday any different other than a zillion people will probably hit it. tommorrow is the day to take one last stab.

This is possibly the dumbest thing I've ever heard. Do I really need to explain to you why it's possibly the best bet you could make all YEAR on Saturday? Versus one of the worst on Friday?

hockey2315 04-22-2011 12:53 AM

GP R7 - A: 5,10 B: 6,8,11 C: 2,12
[AE - #s 13 + 14 = Bs?]
GP R8 - A: 2,7,9 B: 3,4 C: 8,12
[AE - #13 A or B, 14 + 15 C, 16 B]
GP R9 - A: 7,9,10 B: 2,6 C: 3,4
GP R10 - A: 8,9,10 B: 2,6 C: 3,4
[AE - #13 C]
GP R11 - A: 8,12 B: 3,5 C: 1,2,11
GP R12 - A: 9,10 C: 1,6,12

jms62 04-22-2011 04:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski (Post 770698)
This is possibly the dumbest thing I've ever heard. Do I really need to explain to you why it's possibly the best bet you could make all YEAR on Saturday? Versus one of the worst on Friday?

I wouldn't touch it with a 10 foot poll. If twin spires is actually putting together a 100k ticket what are the chances they miss? I say this pays less than 20 k.

johnny pinwheel 04-22-2011 06:59 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski (Post 770698)
This is possibly the dumbest thing I've ever heard. Do I really need to explain to you why it's possibly the best bet you could make all YEAR on Saturday? Versus one of the worst on Friday?

how? if someone hits (alone) today they will get it all. the split may even be higher today, if its not hit..... i've already hit it twice on days where other people have hit(no jackpot) . thats the money i'm using to play today. believe me i know they are giving the whole pool no matter what....but if you spend 1000 dollars chasing it and its a fairly chalky day..oh, i forgot you guys are the only ones doing that......not....you might get your money back .............maybe........you will need to get multiple 50-1 shots or higher home..... and every "gold rush" fool will be tossing in covering every logical horse and then some.....but if you want to follow the sheep over the cliff....be my guest. it all sounds great until you are sharing it with thousands of other live tickets....are you the one that said "tough sequence". yeah, thats brilliance seeing that it has not been done in weeks.....chances are many more people will hit it tommorrow .......its been that way for weeks now(no jackpot). GO FOR IT TODAY. people never get pari mutuel betting....the more people have it ,....the less you get.....that simple. friday could be a block buster life changing hit,,,,,,saturday most likely will be a treasure hunt gimmick......with thousands splitting the pot. the saying is true here...the bandwagon and one is born every minute. don't listen to me...you won't anyway....sit there and do the math. what will it require to get that jackpot tommorrow?????? pretty much a miracle. i've been chasing it to get the whole thing...i've already shared the "booby" prize twice. please tell me how its a better bet when half the world might cash on it unless some really, really freaky horses win multiple races??????? especially if one were to put a thousand in ? i hope someone hits today....real dumb bet.....lol...not that i won't try tommorrow but so will half the world.

GPK 04-22-2011 07:45 AM

5,6,10/
2,3,8/
2,3,4,7,10/
2,10/
1,5,12/
2,9

philcski 04-22-2011 09:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by johnny pinwheel (Post 770715)
how? if someone hits (alone) today they will get it all. the split may even be higher today, if its not hit..... i've already hit it twice on days where other people have hit(no jackpot) . thats the money i'm using to play today. believe me i know they are giving the whole pool no matter what....but if you spend 1000 dollars chasing it and its a fairly chalky day..oh, i forgot you guys are the only ones doing that......not....you might get your money back .............maybe........you will need to get multiple 50-1 shots or higher home..... and every "gold rush" fool will be tossing in covering every logical horse and then some.....but if you want to follow the sheep over the cliff....be my guest. it all sounds great until you are sharing it with thousands of other live tickets....are you the one that said "tough sequence". yeah, thats brilliance seeing that it has not been done in weeks.....chances are many more people will hit it tommorrow .......its been that way for weeks now(no jackpot). GO FOR IT TODAY. people never get pari mutuel betting....the more people have it ,....the less you get.....that simple. friday could be a block buster life changing hit,,,,,,saturday most likely will be a treasure hunt gimmick......with thousands splitting the pot. the saying is true here...the bandwagon and one is born every minute. don't listen to me...you won't anyway....sit there and do the math. what will it require to get that jackpot tommorrow?????? pretty much a miracle. i've been chasing it to get the whole thing...i've already shared the "booby" prize twice. please tell me how its a better bet when half the world might cash on it unless some really, really freaky horses win multiple races??????? especially if one were to put a thousand in ? i hope someone hits today....real dumb bet.....lol...not that i won't try tommorrow but so will half the world.

Because you WON'T be just getting your money back, even if it chalks out.

The takeout is 20%. So if there's $4 million bet in tomorrow, and $1.5 million in the carryover, there will be a $700k overlay on the payout- so you're playing with a ~20% bonus on the payoff, and that's just assuming the betting distribution will be "normal". Like you said, there will be tons of people playing even the most extreme combos (with Twinspires putting in $100k alone, they will have to spread extremely wide by necessity.) The chances of having a lone winning ticket tomorrow are virtually none. That is no longer the objective since the distribution is mandatory. It's taking advantage of the huge money already in the pool to hit a reasonable combo with a 20-25% bonus in the payoff. If that's not good enough for you, by all means waste your money today chasing absurd horses trying for the whole pool. Good luck.

robfla 04-22-2011 10:32 AM

I read somewhere that Gulfstream should "buy" the ticket today, to ensure a carry for tomorrow...Local papers are estimating 5 million tomorrow.

Tomorrow, If these field sizes hold, there will be 2,488,320 combinations, requiring an investment of $248,832 to cover every possibility.

http://blogs.trb.com/entertainment/n...grow_to_5.html

trackrat59 04-22-2011 10:45 AM

I'm thinking that the best thing to do is run a few tix with a good number of shots and hope for the best. Then, go play another track and not worry about it.

hockey2315 04-22-2011 11:11 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski (Post 770736)
Because you WON'T be just getting your money back, even if it chalks out.

The takeout is 20%. So if there's $4 million bet in tomorrow, and $1.5 million in the carryover, there will be a $700k overlay on the payout- so you're playing with a ~20% bonus on the payoff, and that's just assuming the betting distribution will be "normal". Like you said, there will be tons of people playing even the most extreme combos (with Twinspires putting in $100k alone, they will have to spread extremely wide by necessity.) The chances of having a lone winning ticket tomorrow are virtually none. That is no longer the objective since the distribution is mandatory. It's taking advantage of the huge money already in the pool to hit a reasonable combo with a 20-25% bonus in the payoff. If that's not good enough for you, by all means waste your money today chasing absurd horses trying for the whole pool. Good luck.

Phil, do you know who you're talking to?! He "pretty much makes [his] living doing this."

pointman 04-22-2011 11:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hockey2315 (Post 770756)
Phil, do you know who you're talking to?! He "pretty much makes [his] living doing this."

Don't forget about all the winners he gives out after the races have been run. He will post the winning ticket on Sunday.

lemoncrush 04-22-2011 12:35 PM

I agree...his logic makes no sense.

Hey, I'm putting together a $40 ticket for a dime, and then not just enjoy it and not worry too much about it.

The fun for tomorrow is you can invest a small amount of money, and if you hit it, it will be like hitting a nice pk 4. Playing Friday is almost pointless unless you have some serious longshots that you love.

smuthg 04-22-2011 04:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind (Post 770645)
In related news, Sunday is Easter.

Is JC coming back to ride on Sunday?

Hickory Hill Hoff 04-22-2011 05:08 PM

2/8/10/11
8/9
6/7/8/9
2/4/6/8
3/5/11
5/9/10

philcski 04-22-2011 07:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hockey2315 (Post 770756)
Phil, do you know who you're talking to?! He "pretty much makes [his] living doing this."

I pretty much make my living doing nothing! Pays well!

Paid pretty well today considering there was two odds-on and one other favorite selection in the sequence.

Some guy sitting by me at Keeneland got knocked out in the 2nd leg and won the 3rd and 4th, then starts getting excited, "I can still get 5 of 6!" I said to him "Sorry to be the bearer of bad news but they don't pay 5 of 6". These are the guys we are playing against tomorrow- definitely guys that make their living at it.

GPK 04-22-2011 07:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski (Post 770852)
I pretty much make my living doing nothing! Pays well!

Paid pretty well today considering there was two odds-on and one other favorite selection in the sequence.

Some guy sitting by me at Keeneland got knocked out in the 2nd leg and won the 3rd and 4th, then starts getting excited, "I can still get 5 of 6!" I said to him "Sorry to be the bearer of bad news but they don't pay 5 of 6". These are the guys we are playing against tomorrow- definitely guys that make their living at it.

I wanna be like you when I grow up.


No short jokes needed...:)

knickslions2 04-22-2011 09:24 PM

.10 pick 6

6,10
3,8,9
3,5,9,10
2,6,9
2,12
1,5,6,9,10

blackthroatedwind 04-22-2011 10:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski (Post 770698)
This is possibly the dumbest thing I've ever heard. Do I really need to explain to you why it's possibly the best bet you could make all YEAR on Saturday? Versus one of the worst on Friday?

I don't think that was fair.....I mean the whole post was one of the dumbest things anyone has ever written.....give credit where credit is due....don't just narrow his idiocy down to that one sentence. He earned far less respect than that!

ateamstupid 04-23-2011 02:11 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski (Post 770698)
This is possibly the dumbest thing I've ever heard. Do I really need to explain to you why it's possibly the best bet you could make all YEAR on Saturday? Versus one of the worst on Friday?

My brain went numb reading what he wrote. It's hard to believe there are people that clueless.

johnny pinwheel 04-23-2011 08:03 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski (Post 770736)
Because you WON'T be just getting your money back, even if it chalks out.

The takeout is 20%. So if there's $4 million bet in tomorrow, and $1.5 million in the carryover, there will be a $700k overlay on the payout- so you're playing with a ~20% bonus on the payoff, and that's just assuming the betting distribution will be "normal". Like you said, there will be tons of people playing even the most extreme combos (with Twinspires putting in $100k alone, they will have to spread extremely wide by necessity.) The chances of having a lone winning ticket tomorrow are virtually none. That is no longer the objective since the distribution is mandatory. It's taking advantage of the huge money already in the pool to hit a reasonable combo with a 20-25% bonus in the payoff. If that's not good enough for you, by all means waste your money today chasing absurd horses trying for the whole pool. Good luck.

you were right....it sort of blew up in my face....but they scracthed alot of horses yesterday(2 or 3 in almost every race)...which made hitting it almost impossible...you have to use some ridiculous horses if you expect to hit it. i had the 11 in the 9th yesterday (withches orchard) at 46-1....just missed. so i just missed a pretty good score even though i blew some bankroll to get that far. i'm not a play it safe gambler.....my biggest scores have been by doing things everyone else is not...so i took a chance and it was wrong...oh well. i'll be like the rest of you partnering up and chasing the dream today. but i'm not putting anywhere near as much in as i did yesterday(by myself). you often get rewarded taking the path less traveled. was not meant to be this time. i call it what it is ....gambling.....if your not willing to take a gamble......why gamble? i know people think i'm crazy or dumb but i'll put my ability against anyone here...i can pick a race horse and smell a "bad" fave a mile away.....i could not live the way i do if i could not.....blackthroated...you know who i am and you know its true. i've been following this game since the 6th grade and you know it. gee, i wonder why i can't go to the simulcast without half the people asking me who i like. i must lose alot of money....no i don't...thats why most of you will be working next monday morning and i'll be heading to churchill. i'll be at saratoga every day as long as i'm healthy ....boy ....i really suck.....while i'm working on PHd...yeah i'm a moron too......


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