Welcome to the Kentucky Derby, Shackleford
 

Wow.

He's done enough

"That was wunderbra!! I made the best track in all the world!"

Why not?

Shackleford was best in that race. This wasn't yet another case of a speed horse majorly over performing in a Derby prep because of a slow pace and better horses not being allowed to use their early speed.

They went over 2 full seconds faster in the first half mile than Older males in a Grade 3 stake 30 minutes prior ... Flashpoint was not going to clear from out there unless he was gunned. 12/1 Ron The Greek made a wide rally from dead last in the Grade 3 for older male to finish just one position behind dream trip overbet 2/1 pacesetter Colizeo.

The last 1/8th of the Florida Derby was 13.69 - the last 3fs 39.44 - over a track that wasn't exactly slow.

Sure - Shackleford has almost no chance in the Derby - unless The Factor and maybe one or two other speeds all break very bad. But they can take heart in knowing they were best today.

By "best", you must mean "best of the horses not named Dialed In." No one closed today.

What sucks is that the truth is now out on To Honor and Serve and Soldat.

THAS was too close to that pace. I'll play him back in the Derby

If you really that that was a speed biased track - Ron The Greek in the prior race was about five miles the best at 12/1. He got no pace at all to work with - and still made the same move Dialed In did.

Certainly ran a better figure than Dialed In. Dialed In was the only closer in a race overflowing with speed. No different than Ice Box in last years Fla Derby.

Just what the KY Derby needs ANOTHER front runner

Can we please get 1 more deep closer:D

I thought there was one point when Shackleford was trading at 250/1 odds - but the only screen capture I took early on had him available at 130 for small money.



Even though the pace was very fast - he was probably the only horse in this race other than Dialed In who wasn't trying to have the speed trained out of him in the morning. McLaughlin would have been better off drilling on Soldat in Baffert-esque fashion. The change of tactics really backfired.

I'm thrilled about Dialed In, but obviously DrugS is right that Shackleford ran the best race. Even if you think the track was kind to speed, take a look at where the other speeds finished.

Speaking of finishing, has Stay Thirsty crossed the wire yet?

At least he was in the field so that To Honor and Serve wasn't the biggest phony in the race.

Stay Thirsty has until May 6th to cross the wire-$260,000 means already in

In what?

I see what you guys are saying and I was probably too quick to say Dialed In ran the best race. But the "other speeds" were To Honor and Serve and a sprinter trying two turns for the first time breaking from the outside. And the only horse who passed either of them was Dialed In.

flashpoint= flash in the pan...met mile

I doubt he's going to the Derby - I'd be really surprised if he does as he was beaten many lengths and did not improve at all. He's always going to be up close - he can't rate well from off the pace. Just like in the FOY, his "move" was pretty weak - he never looked like he ever had the measure of Shackelford.

I have a feeling Dialed In's race today would look great on a Fat Chart.

Shackleford I believe is literally 20th on the earnings list... with quite a few decent pots yet to go. Yea, yea... anything can happen, and often does. But, what does it say about the system when the runner-up to the Derby's second choice (by a whisker) might not be in the race?

It says it's working?

Why should one decent performance, after several mediocre ones, earn a horse a spot in the Derby? I know, it has earned others, but that doesn't mean they all should get a spot.

He had the same fair chance everyone did.

$200,000 will be enough.

He's in, but if the owner goes into the race with the overwhelming favorite in Uncle Mo, you would hope he would realize Stay Thirsty has absolutely no shot, and point him somewhere...anywhere but that race.

That horse stinks.

Bank on Shakelford and Stay Thirsty both running in the Derby.

What I'm wondering is if To Honor and Serve will run. Same with Soldat. I'd actually bet no for both of them if someone gave me 2-1 odds against running.

From the articles and quotes looks like both Soldat and To Honor and Serve are going. Especially Sodat they sold part interest last month, no way you buy in for that kind of money and have the earnings and back out now.

I was really hoping both would run well today so that they'd take action in the Derby.

If they honestly used the Florida derby as a test to see if soldat can rate, then they shouldn't go at all. That's a million dollar race today and he didn't look interested in running one bit. I thought to honor and serve may have moved too soon, but it seemed like everyone was waiting for shackelford to start backing up.

Really?

For a horse taken so far out of his game, I thought Soldat ran ok.

Interesting that both It's Tricky and Soldat turned in total non-efforts.

I think It's Tricky missed Artie.

what is his game?

He ran fine in turf races, when he rated.

If THAS runs, I'd be surprised; I can't possibly see what Mott would see in his performance to think he has a prayer. The horse can't rate and he's, unfortunately, not that good. I would imagine Soldat would go.

Well, turf for one thing.

I was mostly referring to race style. Like, you know, go to the lead, run without restraint, that sorta thing.

The problem is that he has only run well with perfect trips....either setting a modest pace or stalking in the clear. Yes, he has talent, but no ability to overcome even the slightest adversity.

However, given the dearth of speed in US turf racing, he could do very well in our turf races.

The decision isn't all Mott's to make.

I was trying to say that I think he ran a race that was better than generally acknowledged here.

I've never thought all that much of him to begin with. I had low expectations of him today, and until the end of the race, I thought he was running pretty hard.

As for his Derby prospects? It's a two horse race at this point, and he is not one of those two.

I don't know how you can say he ran better than generally acknowledged. He never ran a step. He finished behind Flashpoint. Think about that for a second.

He did beat Stay Thirsty. Funny, he was quite the internet darling going into the race, and now. shockingly, his supporters have completely evaporated.

Keep in mind, I had very little in the way of expectations of him, and in my eye, he was at least trying in a spot that he was a big disadvantage in. I never once in the race thought he was the winner, but I did say to myself during the race something to the effect of "at least he isn't spitting the bit and is trying to rally".

I guess I'm trying to say that while everyone else is off the bandwagon, he just moved up a little in my modest estimation.

It's all relative.

I feel that way about many posters on the internet....yet the number on my ignore list only goes up.

I try to not resort to such things, but that suggestion you gave me the other day, I added that one to my Morty list.

True, but the way Charlotte Weber talked prior to the race, it sounded like she was going to leave the decision in Mott's hands. I finally read some quotes from Mott after the race - maybe I'm wrong, maybe he will send the horse. I hope not. It's not impossible that he develop into a nice horse later on - perhaps even one that will rate - but that's not happening before the Derby or any of the other TC races. Boy, I loved this horse right after he ran 2nd in his debut - I didn't count on him not developing or, frankly, speed crazy.

I thought Shackleford ran a ton of a race, and Dailed In did well to run him down. I'm impressed with both of them.