Derby Trail Next Start-Likely/Possible
 

KENTUCKY DERBY

1 Uncle Mo (Todd Pletcher/John Velazquez)
2 Dialed In (Nick Zito/Julien Leparoux)
3 Archarcharch (William 'Jinks' Fires/Jon Court)
4 Comma to the Top (Peter Miller/Pat Valenzuela)
5 Pants On Fire (Kelly Breen/Rosie Napravnik)
6 Midnight Interlude (Bob Baffert/Victor Espinoza)
7 Soldat (Kiaran McLaughlin/Alan Garcia)
8 Brilliant Speed (Tom Albertrani/Joel Rosario)
9 Master of Hounds (Aidan O'Brien/Garrett Gomez)
10 Nehro (Steve Asmussen/Corey Nakatani)

11 Twice the Appeal (Jeff Bonde/Calvin Borel)
12 Mucho Macho Man (Kathy Ritvo/Rajiv Maragh)
13 Decisive Moment (Juan Arias/Kerwin Clark)
14 Animal Kingdom (H. Graham Motion/Robby Albarado)
15 Stay Thirsty (Todd Pletcher/Ramon Dominguez)
16 Santiva (Eddie Kenneally/Shaun Bridgmohan)
17 Watch Me Go (Kathleen O'Connell/Rafael Bejarano)
18 Shackleford (Dale Romans/Jesus Castanon)
19 Twinspired (Mike Maker/Mike Smith)
20 Derby Kitten (Mike Maker)
----------------------------------------------------------
21 Sway Away (Jeff Bonde)



PREAKNESS

Dance City
Astrology
Flashpoint
Derby Kitten



BELMONT STAKES

Joe's Blazing Aaron is possible for the Bluegrass.
He is a new addition to the Mike Maker barn!

I love the FL Derby this weekend. Lots of ways to play

Wow - this one is shaping up to be a Dandy!

Why is the Blue Grass Stakes still a Grade 1?

I remember thinking synthetic surfaces would be good for racing. I'll go ahead and file that one under "wrong".

(If some of you could resist the temptation to post the obvious here, that would be great. No one really gets points for hitting softballs out of the park.)

Why are any of them Grade 1's?
They are all preps for the Kentucky Derby, the real Grade 1.

Florida Derby is actually the first one I'm interested in so far. Several horses in that one that could move up.

The thing about the Blue Grass is that it's unlikley to tell us anything about Santiva. If he goes to the Derby, he'll be a complete wild card.

More importantly, how amazing is Tom Walters, he always has one horse in training, and they are almost always a real good horse. There was an article about him somewhere that was good.

He's not even close to a " complete wild card. "

He's slow.

I keep forgetting that slow horses are banned by law from hitting the board in the Derby.

By the way, this "slow" horse improved his top Beyer by 13 points in his sophomore debut, and has a graded two-turn win over the CD surface.

Slow horses win Classics all the time. See Drosselslug

Non sequitur.

The whole field was slow.

Umm, Super Saver anyone

What about him?

You mean another slow horse beating another slow field, over the only track in the world he could have possibly won the race over, with a perfect trip?

Giacomo...should I continue. Just shut the hell up

You only continue to prove my point. My argument was with you calling him a " complete wild card " and, as you have further shown, he is anything but.

I don't give a sh it what he does, or where he does it, but he is far from a " complete wild card. " That's all.

I'll disagree with you completely on this. IMO he was slow as a 2 year old, but his return race was very good while wide the entire race and they are using the Blue Grass as a final tightner, ala Street Sense and he will run a big race in the Derby. 6pt top (TG) in his return race signals a very healthy horse (maybe almost too healthy) and if he pairs that in the Blue Grass he will be a great bet in the Derby.

All that and because I keyed him up and down in Future pool exactas. :)

Well, considering the title of this thread is "Derby Trail Next Start-Likely/Possible", what he does and where he does it are relevant to the discussion.

And feel free to define "wild card". My point is that he is going to the Derby off of a synthetic prep, which will very probably mask any progress he has continued to make since turning three. Maybe he hasn't progressed any more than he showed in his last start. Or maybe he has. Who knows? I don't. So I'm calling him a wild card. Sorry. A COMPLETE wild card.

The Packers were a Wild Card this year. So there.

You also liked Kathmanblu.

I hate to tell you, but TG figs don't tell the whole story, and they omit his candy trip, as far as dynamics are concerned, in the Risen Star. Sometimes wide is not only not so bad, sometimes it's actually good, except for people that blindly follow sheet numbers. But, then again, you can take solace in knowing there's always " bounce " as a further excuse.

I prefer slow....but maybe that's only because I don't want to lose money on him. However, if there is an early pool on the Secretariat I might be inclined to take a little 25:1.

Then again, he was a Trips&Traps horse after his debut.

Again. That might have been the worst Derby field in 20 years, except for Afleet Alex.

You do remember what happened to Afleet Alex, right?

Or maybe you think Mo isn't as good as AA, I don't know.

Either way, you are both wrong and a moron.

Really worst field ever. Maybe you missed Bellamy Road's Wood that year. Was that fast enough for you?...You swtich arguments between fields and slow. And your wild Indian Charlie Bromance is taking you nowhere in life.

Keeneland.

I will admit that a couple years ago I fell into just using TG numbers, and it was a valuable learning lesson for me personally. I'll watch the Risen Star again because I have only watched it twice, but wide, on the dirt, is not where you want to be at FG. On the turf, sure, but not on the dirt, imo.

In general - you're right.

However - the pace was such a crawl that race - and outside pressing/stalking trips are always ideal in slow early- fast late races. Even at FG.

If he has all that going for him, then why the hell is he a "complete wild card"?

Le Prince in the 1990 Travers. That would have been a complete wild card.

Jesustapdancingchrist.

To me, as I explained earlier, a "wild card" is a horse whose talent level isn't was well established as many of his opponents. Santiva was not fast enough to compete with the likes of Uncle Mo, The Factor, etc. as a juvenile. In his only race this year, he ran well and earned a much higher fig than anything he had produced last year. He will have one more race before the Derby, and that race will be over synthetic- meaning it won't tell me all I would like to know about his form or talent level. Thus, at least as far as I am concerned, there will be a big question mark next to his name.

So I called him a wild card.

I get your reasoning now.

The Kentucky Derby will be Uncle Mo versus 19 complete wild cards.

Now you're being completely ridiculous as opposed to just ridiculous.

Is it really that hard to figure out? The guy thinks the horse might be moving in the right direction, but if the horse's next start is on synthetic he's saying he won't learn what he wants to learn about the horse's dirt form/ability when it comes to the Derby.
Sounds reasonable to me.
Just because justindew is the one who made the point doesn't automatically make it completely ridiculous.

BLUE GRASS

Crimson China
Santiva
Willcox Inn
Monzon
Joe's Blazing Aaron

Queen'splatekitten (Possible)
Data Link (Possible)
King Congie (Possible)

Swift Warrior to the Blue Grass

Justin Dew now has a spokesman?

Thanks, I think.

For the record, I intend to really step up my posting game in the coming weeks. No more blatant (though apparently not obvious to all) attempts to rile people up.

Raising your game won't be hard. Lowering it would be impossible.

I consider you a flatliner.

Spare me. The gripe is clearly with the wording "complete wild card". The horse is hardly that. Santiva has enough of a relevant race record to go on if he were to make the Kentucky Derby field.

Canonero III, he ain't.

I know of no one on DT who would disagree with you there. But I've got some posts planned for the coming weeks that will really knock your socks off.

You also haven't accepted my Facebook friend request yet.

I wouldn't want you to feel like something you're not......special.

If it makes you feel better, I never friended RockHardTen either.

Or Vol Jack..

But that's OK...I'll just continue to troll his tweets.