3yo recap and updated Derby Chances
 

A wasted week with three ultra sub-par Derby preps. The Sunland Derby and Spiral both featured pace meltdowns. The former won by a hopeless horse - the latter won by a synthetic specialist.

The Louisiana Derby at least had a few animals resembling racehorses in it - but it was a false-run race - riding tactics dictated the outcome.

The no-ability and no early speed Lion Drive set a slow pace for a long while in the LA Derby:



Thanks to setting fractions slower than both a MSW dirt route for 3yo fillies - and an N1X dirt route for 3yo males - he was able to carry the lead for more than six furlongs.

It was a virtual merry-go-round behind Lion Drive - the horses who raced 2nd, 3rd, and 4th made up an improbable cold trifecta:



36/1 2nd place finisher Nehro - always very close to the pace - benefited greatly from his connections allowing him to show more early speed.




While the exacta combo of Pants on Fire-Nehro only paid $459 - or almost 230/1 odds - keep in mind that Pants on Fire was the publicly lesser regarded part of a coupled entry ... he would have certainly been 20/1+ if uncoupled.


Calvin Borel singlehandedly lost the race for Elite Alex by taking him back again. And Machen - a very fast sprinter by Distorted Humor out of a More Than Ready mare - once again had to attempt the role of deep closer, with a wide move, into a slow pace. Perhaps Neil Howard's main goal with him is some 4.5 mile endurance race somewhere. Machen was once again Sway Away flat with those same tactics.

Updated Derby Chances:

Uncle Mo (27%)
The Factor (10%)
Premier Pegasus (7.5%)
To Honor And Serve (7.5%)
Soldat (7%)
Dialed In (6.75%)
Silver Medallion (4.25%)
Mucho Macho Man (3%)
Jaycito (3%)
Flashpoint (2.25%)
Stay Thirsty (2%)
Santiva (2%)
Elite Alex (1.75%)
Mr. Commons (1.75%)
Comma to the Top (1.5%)
Archarcharch (1.25%)
Gourmet Dinner (1%)
Anthony's Cross (1%)
Astrology (0.84%)
Toby's Corner (0.50%)
Sway Away (0.50%)
Pants on Fire (0.40%)
Animal Kingdom (0.40%)
JJ's Lucky Train (0.33%)
Bretheren (0.33%)
Twice the Appeal (0.20%)

The Rest: (6%)

I love how you award Astrology with an 0.84% chance to give the appearance that you are trying to be precise.

Certainly can't argue with your presentation here....miserable weekend as far as finding a horse to get even mildly interested in. I feel Uncle Mo is a "bet against" in the Derby but trying to find someone who looks the part of a horse capable of beating him is proving to be a challenge...oh well, the major preps are still ahead.

While I understand what you are saying and why you think it, why exactly is Machen a very fast sprinter? Because his debut in a sprint was okay? I just don't think he's a route horse.

Same thing for Elite Alex. Yeah, he showed speed in his debut 10 months ago, but he wasn't on the shelf for 6 months after that for nothing and I think whatever early speed he once had is no more. I still don't see the hype with this one and he's yet to crack a 90 Beyer and it's almost April.

I didn't like Nehro at all yesterday, so this isn't a redboard, but I do think it's possible he's improving. I think this is a very in and out group with the exception of a few and Uncle Mo keeps looking better and better. I think we're going to keep seeing fields like this taking turns beating each other.

I have a feeling To Honour And Serve is going to have an Unbridled's Song- or Holy Bull-like return to form in the Florida Derby.

It almost has to happen or might as well start looking to the 3yo fillies division for Derby contenders.

Apparently, all the real horses from this crop reside in Steve Asmussen's barn awaiting starts in maiden special weight sprints at Santa Anita.

plum pretty

The Factor will insure a fast Derby pace. If he cannot get the distance and Uncle Mo will be too short a price, I like Dialed In ahead of Premier Pegasus, To Honor and Serve, and Soldat.

I am really looking forward to the Florida Derby this weekend as it should provide a better read on Dialed In, Soldat, and To Honor and Serve (especially if Flashpoint runs and provides a pace similar to last year's Florida Derby).

He's not all that much a route horse when he's forced to rally wide - into the teeth of slow paces - and notoriously inside-speed friendly FG.

Machen's debut sprinting was very fast - every figure maker other than Beyer has that race brutally fast - and 94 isn't exactly slow.

He's going to be a 'wildcard' routing until he's allowed to use his natural speed. I've dropped him from the list of %'s because he's a wildcard with minimal Graded Earnings now. We all know Howard is a very low ROI trainer who doesn't produce much despite getting a ton of choicy and expensive stock. I'd love to see someone with some common sense like a Baffert take over the training of that horse.

Plum Pretty's margin of victory (25 lengths I believe) was impressive but she beat nobody today (there were no horses resembling a Zazu or Turbulent Descent). Same easy route that Baffert took with Tough Tiz's Sis and Gabby's Golden Gal.

she would've won the 800k race today

So one race makes a horse very fast? I'm not trying to give you a hard time, but I just don't think you can make statements like that about horses in this crop, especially after the way we have seen some of these "very fast" horses run after their debuts.

She's more likely to emulate Gabby's Golden Gal than Rachel Alexandra.

Her next win will be either the Iowa or Indiana Oaks.

Those debut horses you speak of - they'll get back to and break-through their numbers imo.

She would have needed to rate well off the insane fractions that Sinai set.

Howard was convinced that Machen couldn't get 10 furlongs, so he trained him and allowed him to be ridden accordingly.

DrugS still can't understand why Cryptoclearance didn't wire fields given the speed he showed in his first start or two.

I guess if I was impressed by anyone this weekend it would be Master Of Hounds, ran exceptionally well in UAE Derby and certainly is bred well. Don't know if they will consider him for the Derby but if so, he would be a danger in the lane with that breeding!

As nicely as he rates - he could probably get 12 furlongs on the lead. Maybe this years Da Tara the way this crop is shaping up.


I'm not a big bounce guy to say the least - but a lot of these horses who regress after a debut - regress because human connections fucl< them up by imposing their will on a horse.

In a debut - a horse will run huge if it finds the kind of distance it likes and finds the type of pace it takes.

A lot was made about Zensational losing a paceless 8f race at odds of 1/9 in brutally slow time after his maiden win ....



Didn't stop him from winning 3 Grade 1's in a row - 2 of which at 7fs. He got into a tug of war wrestling match with his rider like Bind did.

Machen's not that type. He's at least a nice prospect as a mid-pack sprinter - and is still a wildcard as a speed router.

I'm guessing you don't bet....as this is one horrendous opinion.

Horses like Cryptoclearence (who was before me) and Street Sense were more effective when deep closing tactics were applied.

Street Sense was a Street Cry for God's sakes ... maybe Neill Howard is a friend - but when you've got a Distorted Humor to a More Than Ready running pace figures 10 lengths slower than Giacomo runs ... you're not doing something right.

I agree that the recent tactics have been foolish.

Cryptoclearance was trained by Scotty Schulhofer, who could have trained the speed out of The Factor.

You would be wrong, I do bet, mostly Penn National and River Downs so I am more use to claimers but don't do badly in grade 1's. Why do you find my interest in Master of Hounds so horrendous?

Because he isn't a dirt horse.

Do you think Uncle Mo would beat Frankel in the English Guineas?

Cryptoclearance broke his maiden by 12 lengths going 7fs at Saratoga. I think it was his third lifetime start.

I don't think Uncle Mo would beat Frankel at Churchill Downs. Saying he isn't a dirt horse is a bit premature in my opinion...his breeding indicates turf preference but he handled the surface in Dubai so there is no reason he might not enjoy dirt. Stamina certainly wouldn't be a problem...not out of the question he could be a legit factor. Would like to see him run in a prep here of course.

Funny stuff. Thanks.

You cant just play nice with people can you? HAHA

Yeah as far as derbies go, I would've thought more Epsom than Kentucky.

Incidentally, I was looking at MOH's pedigree and realized Sadler's Wells turned 30 this year. I wasn't expecting him to be that old. He's still hanging around the paddock as a healthy pensioner, I assume.

I'll admit he ran a hell of a lot better than I thought he would in Dubai (even though he did look better the two morning before the race compared to his stable companions), but saying a horse will get over dirt because he handled Tapeta is void of all logic. And if you don't think that is foolish, just think of it this way...if you say it for him, you'd have to say it for every other winner there, and we KNOW that is far from the truth. It's not even a brutally weak argument, it's a non-starter.

the percentages are pretty good. except for to honor and serve. i can't see him ahead of soldat or gourmet dinner or even stay thirsty for that matter. the horse looked like crap last time out. the race was not even close, two horses i just mentioned pretty much kicked his butt in. his wins are very slow, where they let him walk on the lead....i'm waiting to see how much money this one burns again saturday, hes got a slight chance but he will be hopelessly overbet again this week, and your bias of making him a top 5 makes my case.the horse has not one race that makes him look competitive. if he repeats his last race like i think he will...the air will be out of the tires on this bandwagon. that horse has to prove he does not need an easy lead for me to even consider him. which means he has to win the next one...i'm saying "good luck" with that.

FYI, they dont run on dirt in Dubai.

That's why I said "surface" not "dirt"....he is in good form and ran well on that surface, his connections will know if he could possibly handle dirt and will decide his future accordingly. All I ever said was he impressed me more the other horses this past weekend, I really don't need the know it all sarcasm!

There's an awful long list of horses whose form has translated well from Tapeta to the Churchill Downs surface. Er...

The Tapeta at Presque Isle is some pretty f'in fun sh!t.

I've seen it playing insanely slow - I've seen it playing insanely fast - I've seen some hardcore dead rails for extended periods - I've seen some inside-speed biases that would put old Keeneland dirt to shame for extanded peroids.

For whatever reason though - closers have always performed miserably over it. In general, those are the worst kind of horses you could ever bring in here. Front end and pressing turf horses - can magically improve over PID's Tapeta version. Most dirt horses do a lot better than you might think - just as long as they have some speed.

I have no idea about Dubai's Tapeta. The climate between Erie and Dubai is probably a little bit different.

How about the religious climate? Would you still be the only Jew there if you moved from Erie to Dubai?

Go help your Mother in the barn.

I just found out that our local 'mush' of the century - Meyer Lansky - is Jewish.

In fact - four of the people who frequently sit at my fathers table at PID are Jewish. I didn't even know we had Jews in Erie. That's the problem with them ... you can't spot them by looking at them... and they all don't have obvious Jewy names like Finklestein.

Doug is a pretty good giveaway name for Jewyness though. I have several cousins named Dougie, and not a one is Woppy in the least.

thats hilarious coming from you.

Tapeta is nothing like dirt. If anything it shows off turf ability. It means Zero when applied to dirt form.

Did I say it was similar to dirt? All I said was he handled the surface well. The horse has run 6 times, prior to the UAE Derby he had one win and a couple seconds, nothing earth shattering to be sure...trying him on the dirt is not so far-fetched and his connections might just roll the dice...or not!