Maclean's Music (110 preliminary Beyer)
 

3yo First-time starter out of the worlds fastest horse - Forest Music - won his debut big at Santa Anita today and is an obvious superstar. A Baffert debuter by Werblin who was the clear-cut standout of OBS June last year was a clear and distant 2nd.

Forest Music was one of only two horses in history to ever to run a 20 and change quarter at the Fasig Tipton Calder sale. Tiz Wonderful (who broke his maiden by about 15 at Saratoga first-out) was the other.

Forest Music won her debut nicely with a 107 Beyer figure at LRL - and was rushed into the BC Juvenile fillies out west a few weeks later in start #2 and was eased. Ended up being a multiple Graded Stakes winning sprinter who would set strong paces and always stagger home.

Maclean's Music has no future as a distance horse ... but Distorted Humor to Forest Music ... you have to love that.

That was impressive. Stopped the clock at 1:07 & change, right? Looked easy too...

Formal Gold's record for highest debut figure of all-time is probably still safe ... but there's a good chance Maclean's Music will recieve a debut figure of 110+

Race #1: Winner Via Verde ran a 90 last out - winning par for this class level is an 86. Via Verde winning time was 25 points slower than Maclean's Music

Race #2: Winner Lost Prophet ran a 77 last out - winning par for the class level is a 73. Lost Prophet's winning time was 39 points slower than Maclean's Music

Race #3: Turf

Race #4: Route

Race #5: Turf

Race #6: Havens Lake ran a 71 last out - winning par for the class level is a 72. Havens Lake's winning time was 41 points slower than Maclean's Music

Race #7: Turf

Race #8: Maclean's Music's race. Debuters 1-2-3 ... 4th place finisher beaten 11.5 lengths was a Mandella 2nd time starter who ran an 87 in his debut.

Race #9: Saint Isabelle ran a 90 two starts back - winning par for the class level is an 89. Saint Isabelle's winning time is 17 points slower than Maclean's Music.

Race #10: Winning par is 61. 2nd and 3rd place finishers - both beaten 2 lengths - ran a 60 and 61 last out respectively. The final time for this race was 55 points slower than Maclean's Music.

Thanks for proving my point in the other thread.

For some reason - I thought Formal Gold ran a 114 instead of a 112 in his debut. He ran a 112.



Formal Gold's 15-year-old record is in danger. That figure for Maclean's Music could justifiably be as high as a 113.

Formal Gold was pretty darn good at the end of his career - slaughtering the great Skip Away in back-to-back races with insane figures. Once he got hurt - Skip Away was invincible for over a year. Obviously - don't expect Maclean's Music to stretch out like that.

Only horse to ever run three straight BSFs over 124?

Since they've been published in '91 anyway.

The amazing thing about his cut is he went into the '96 BCC as part of a 21-1 entry.
With PP's like that today, he would be 3/5.

What was with all the jockey changes on Formal Gold?

I suppose some of it had to do with all the jock changes on Skip Away.

True. And when is the last time the Pa Derby produced a LOSING Beyer of 113.

Cigar was a 3/5 favorite that year.

Yep - you had an incredibly deep division of 3yo and older males that year ... the likes of which we haven't seen since ....

and yet ....

this laughable slowpoke was named Horse of the Year that year...

Yeah, but wasn't Skip Away something like 4 of 11 that year?

It's hard to give HOY to a horse that didn't even win half of its starts.

Yes - he won 4-for-11.

He finished the year with 8 figures of 115-to-125 in a row.

He won the Breeders Cup Classic "handily" by 6 lengths with a 120 Beyer at Hollywood Park ... in spite of Mike Smith making a crazy pre-mature move on the 1st turn.

Why punish a horse for a win/loss record - when those defeats are supreme performances against outstanding competition?

Uncle Mo had a thousand times better case for Horse of the Year over Zenyatta - than Favorite Trick did over Skip Away.

I wonder if history would have been different had Gentlemen not shipped to run in the Woodbine Mile that year.

Clearly Gentlemen was the best horse that year. He should have won HOY.

Maybe they just like to give really big trophies these days to horses that manage to start 8 times in a year.

Looking at the last 2yo HOY prior to FT, Secretariat won HOY in a year featuring both Riva Ridge and Key to the Mint (KTTM got 3yo colt). Secretariat actually beat out 2yo filly La Prevoyante for the award (sort of, she still got some partial recognition there). What's your opinion of the viable HOY candidates in that year as compared to Secretariat? With not 1 but 2 2yos topping the ballots that year, it was a rather unusual situation. Looking at some of the other horses running that year, it's not like the 3yos were bums.

Forest Music got a 105 in her debut....not a 107.

Yep - I just went back and looked. Thanks.

That was off memory - as long winded and plentiful as my posts are - if I spelled names correctly and researched every last thing - I'd waste even more time than I already do.

In the words of every chick I've ever talked to on facebook "someday the Internet will burn in hell for its lies"

By the way - I looked at the 2003 BC Advanced edition PP's.

Here was Forest Music's entire worktab for her debut:

July 30th: 4f in 52 breezing - 9th best of 11 - at FAI
Aug 27th: 4f in 50 breezing from gate - 5th best of 10 - at FAI

MSW race on October 8th.

She had no works showing after that race. Considering that she was shipped cross country - to run in the Breeders Cup at Santa Anita on just 16 days rest ... I think it's entirely possible that she ran in a BC race with just 1 career start - and two career published works under her.

I'm guessing that had to be Mike Gill's call... Shuman can't be that foolish.

Doug,

You were very busy last night. This thread and the Derby thread easily trumped reading the Sunday Bergen Record first thing this morning.

Thanks.

From Scott Blasi, colt came back great, doing fine this morning. Says they're all pretty excited...

Are they going straight to the SA Derby?

There'd probably be a better chance they'd run Wilburn in the SA Derby but I think after the Albergatti flop they'll be a bit more patient with recent maiden winners.

I was being facetious, but heck, the way people get the fever the last 10 years or so, coupled with the lack of good health of the owner, I would not be surprised at all to see this horse put on the 'trail'.

I happened to be at Laurel the day Forest Music broke her maiden. It was the most impressive maiden performance I've ever seen live. Save for an insane owner, her name could be much more well known.

This colt looked very good. High cruising speed, seemed well within himself. He might eventually get a mile, but probably no further.

FM is still a young broodmare, lets hope she produces a few more nice ones.

110 Beyer the preliminary number..

Is this crop going to set a record for most debuters with a triple digit BSF?

That would give the heavily bet Baffert Werblin debuter who finished a clear 2nd a 92.

Here he is working a bullet 1/4 mile at OBS June last year ...

http://www.obssales.com/juncatalog/2010/197.wmv

Track was quite slow that day ... as nags were posting 23 and even 24 and change quarters.

It feels like it anyway. There was no way that maiden race yesterday wasn't going to come back supersonic fast. A simple glance of the days five other dirt sprints could tell that.

If race #1 comes back par - Maclean's Music gets a 111

If race #2 comes back par - Maclean's Music gets a 112

If race #6 comes back par - Maclean's Music gets a 113

if race #9 comes back par - Maclean's Music gets a 106

if race #10 comes back par - Maclean's Music gets a 116

That avg's out to a 111.6 with 112 the middling number. If you look at the day The Factor won his maiden race ... the track was clearly yielding much faster times all day long on The Factor's day.

They gave it to Ferdinand in 1987 when it should have gone to Java Gold. Even Manila or Theatrical would have been a better choice than Ferdinand.

Isolate his record at 10f.

I'll give you credit....you never tire of being boorish.

Many of us are still waiting for your response to your idiotic suggestion that horses with high debut Beyers ( you made your usual inane comment concerning Bind ) went on to do very little during their careers. Well, five of the 20 in the last 19 years to return won Grade 1 races ( seven races in total ). 13 of those 20 ran 1-2-3 in Grade 1 races and 13 of the 20 won Graded Stakes.

Why don't you respond when your idiocy is exposed instead of making one useless hit and run post after another?

I know, like you, that Formal Gold was 0 for 3 in 1 1/4 races. I also know he ran 106, 108 and 115 speed figures in losing three races he wasn't favored in, and was over 20:1 in one of them. But, you think you're clever with your snide little comment. Guess what? You aren't.

Every time I see a fast debut Beyer, I think "well, that's no Formal Gold." I guess I'll be thinking "wow, that's no Maclean's Music" from now on.

If this horse is campaigned even half as aggressively as Formal Gold was we'll be in for a treat.

Of course, they'll probably shoot themselves in the foot right off the bat by foregoing the most important step in Formal Gold's ascent to the big leagues...running through his allowance conditions first.

A few years ago, Earl Mack had another Formal Gold-wannabe named Grand Hombre, who won his first 4 races, all with triple digit Beyers. He, too, was run through his allowance conditions before tackling stakes horses.

The only mistake Mack (and trainer Dennis Manning) made with the horse was that they sold him to Godolphin after his Pennsylvania Derby romp. Of course, he never won again...and in fact, is still filling fields to this day in Dubai during the Carnival as an 11 year old.

Grand Hombre was also a major league putover in his debut.

Yeah, and Alysheba would have been a bad choice, too, I suppose.

That essentially meaningless '87 Travers holds as much water for you as the Saratoga main track did that day.

All it proved was that the opportunistic Java Gold was a superior mudder relative to Alysheba and Bet Twice (you know, the two most battle tested and accomplished 3yos that year).

Not sure he deserved HOY for that.

Do you think that there is a correlation between horses running fast in their debut and them developing into quality race horses?

I loved Java Gold....but he shouldn't have been HOY. While it was obviously Pat Day's fault he lost the JCGC, he still lost that race, and with it any legit claim to the award.

Just because you think a horse should have won an award, or was the best horse to race in a given year, doesn't mean it deserves the award.

Thinking isn't on her resume.

Don't remember his debut (it was followed by a significant layoff) or what price he was that day. Anything else come out of that race to do anything?