Likelihood of winning the Derby
 

I put this together in about 13 minutes .....

Uncle Mo (24.25%)
To Honor And Serve (8.25%)
Soldat (7.5%)
Premier Pegasus (7%)
Dialed In (6.25%)
Sway Away (4.25%)
Mucho Macho Man (3.50%)
Machen (3.50%)
The Factor (3.25)
Silver Medallion (3.25%)
Jaycito (3%)
Elite Alex (2.75%)
Archarcharch (2.50%)
Flashpoint (2.50%)
Sweet Ducky (2%)
Stay Thirsty (2%)
Santiva (2%)
Comma to the Top (1.5%)
Rouge Romance (1.25%)
Mr. Commons (1%)
Gourmet Dinner (1%)
Anthony's Cross (0.50%)
Jp's Gusto (0.50%)
Toby's Corner (0.50%)
Astrology (0.34%)
JJ's Lucky Train (0.33%)
Bretheren (0.33%)

The Rest: (5.00%)

Think Premier Pegasus made him look better today.

Premier Pegasus made The Factor look better - remember ... that sizzling pace that PP was chasing last out was set by The Factor.

San Vincete speed horses:

The Factor
The horse who finished dead last by 18+
Premier Pegasus (won by 7+ lengths today in San Felipe)


San Vincente closers:
Sway Away
Surrey Star (finished 7th beaten double digit lengths in San Felipe today)


However, does this race today improve The Factor's KY Derby chances? Not in my opinion. It does confirm his San Vincente win though. He's a very talented horse.

Yeah, I mean, he'll either route or he won't based on his own abilities and not the abilities of a horse he just beat. But as you said, PPs win clearly flatters The Factor.

Personally, I'm high on the 1-2-3 San Vicente finishers as Ky Derby contenders.

Now that Rouge Romance had a foot bruise and will miss a little time - who is the new leader for most likely to finish 4th?

Jaycito made a strong case today.

Comma to the Top might have won the Tampa Derby by 11 today.

Elite Alex will battle Jaycito to complete the Super in the Derby.

Rogue Romance is still in contention despite the setback.

I know - I give him a 1.25% chance of winning still.

Machen still with a reasonable shot?

If Kenny Mayne were in a position to put together a Derby segment, what's the likelihood that it would involve a take off on the Village People and Mucho Macho Man's name? (This shouldn't take 13 min to put together.)

Needless to say - I took a stab with Machen.


3/1 Uncle Mo (24.25%)
14/1 To Honor And Serve (8.25%)
13/1 Soldat (7.5%)
7/2f Premier Pegasus (7%)
11/1 Dialed In (6.25%)
18/1 Sway Away (4.25%)
29/1 Mucho Macho Man (3.50%)
68/1 Machen (3.50%)
32/1 The Factor (3.25)
31/1 Silver Medallion (3.25%)
16/1 Jaycito (3%)
31/1 Elite Alex (2.75%)
50/1 Archarcharch (2.50%)
7/2f Flashpoint (2.50%)
75/1 Sweet Ducky (2%)
25/1 Stay Thirsty (2%)
31/1 Santiva (2%)
85/1 Comma to the Top (1.5%)
36/1 Rouge Romance (1.25%)
7/2f Mr. Commons (1%)
42/1 Gourmet Dinner (1%)
45/1 Anthony's Cross (0.50%)
61/1 Jp's Gusto (0.50%)
7/2f Toby's Corner (0.50%)
53/1 Astrology (0.34%)
7/2f JJ's Lucky Train (0.33%)
30/1 Bretheren (0.33%)

7/2f The Rest: (5.00%)

IMO, your 5% estimate for "The Rest" is much too low. Here is 11 years of data on the percentage of the Derby Day pool that was contributed by bets on horses that were "All Others" in Pool 2:

2010 52%
2009 28%
2008 43%
2007 19%
2006 24%
2005 37%
2004 16%
2003 42%
2002 35%
2001 26%
2000 28%

The average amount contributed by "All Others" is 32%. The smallest was 16%. Unless there is some weird bias on Derby Day that involves whether or not a horse was listed in Pool2, 32% should be a ballpark figure for the average chance of a Pool2 "All Others" horse to win the race*.

If we assume all 5 of the non-Pool2 horses in your list make it to the Derby, you give them a 11.83% combined chance to win. Adding your 5% for "The Rest" brings it up to 16.83%. That would be way below the 32% average share of the Derby Day pool that "All Others" horses have enjoyed. I think 10-15% is a better guess at the chance of your The Rest group to win the race.

--Dunbar

*There is in fact a bias that might make the 32% fig a bit too high of an estimate--the favorite/longshot bias. More longshots will generally come from the "All Others" group, and these longshots are usually overbet. But that effect is not enough, IMO, to bring the 32% ave into line with your effective 16.33% estimate for this year's Pool 2 "All Others" group.

Last year, the 3 Derby favs were listed entries from Pool 2. But the next 6 lowest odds horses were from "All Others". The longest odds horse, Discreetly Mine, was a listed entry, not an "All Others".

I gave the field a 16% chance of winning - not 5%.

Some of the field horses had percentages by them.

you mean all 27 individual horses you listed won't make the starting gate in May? :)

Probably not.

As for my handicapping of DT's board demographics....


Race:
86% White
6% African American
4% Asian
4% Other

Gender:
94% Male
6% Female

Sexual Orientation:
59% Homosexual
25% Heterosexual
11% Bisexual
4.8% Beast fetish
0.2% SCUDS

Religion:
41% Jewish
59% Other


Political Affilation:
47% Republican
34% Democrat
11% Independent
8% Other

Median Income:
$39,832

Huh? That's exactly what I said you did. I used the figure 16.83% for what you gave Pool 2's "All Others".

I wrote:
And IMO your 16.83% for the Pool 2 Field is 5-10% short.

I don't have any reason to think that you've capped your five Pool 2 field horses incorrectly. So I attributed the shortfall to what you called "The Rest", suggesting that 10-15% would be a better fig than 5%. (That would have brought the total chance for the Pool 2 Field up to around 22-27%.) I shoulld more broadly have written that somewhere among your five Pool 2 field horses AND "The Rest" there is a 5-10% shortfall predicted by the number and quality of Pool 2 "All Others" horses that have made it to the Derby starting gate the past 11 years.

There are 300+ horses nominated to the TC. Some that are obscure at the time of past Future Wagers have suddenly become major players in the Derby. It's hard to put a figure on the Field's chances any other way than looking at historical data.

I'm sure someone else could look at it differently, but I feel pretty confident in the way I'm looking at it.

--Dunbar

I assumed wrong from your first line and didn't read the whole thing.

A lot of longshots in the Derby are gigantic overlays - some call it the Giacomo factor or whatever.

It would take a magical sudden form reversal for something included in "the rest" to look like contenders - and with the way prep races are being more and more spaced ... they only have a shot or two to get the graded earnings.

A horse like Bind is not being pointed - he might be one of the two or three most talented of them all.

More than 41% of DT is Jewish.

I notice he didn't take a stab at the percentage of z'tards.

I think he wants to have sex with a few of them.

The median income goes way up if the z'tards are not considered. Something tells me that Smooth Operator is out there carrying numerous hefty bags filled with aluminum cans and dreaming of his big payday at the local recycling facility.

Don't you remember, he had those fantasies of me washing his Porsche?

People like him remind me of why I moved away from LA. Not that I really need reminders, of course.

Is there anything more pathetic than someone who thinks he's cool, smart and funny when in fact he's really lame, stupid and witless?

What was his nickname for you? It was something very dumb. He really stretched his creative powers when he came up with DuhTruth.

"magical" form reversals and overlooked inexperienced up-and-comers have happened often enough in the past to have a greater impact on the Derby than your line would suggest. Here are a few horses that were NOT separate entries in Pool 2 in previous years:

2010
Ice Box
Paddy O'Prado
MakeMusicforMe
Stately Victor
Devil May Care
Awesome Act

2009
Mine That Bird
Musket Man
SummerBird
Regal Ransom

2008
Big Brown
Eight Belles

2007
Sedgefield
Tiago

2006
Steppenwolfer
Jazil (DH)
Sweetnorthernsaint
Deputy Glitters
Sharp Humor

2005
Closing Argument
Buzzard's Bay
Bellamy Road
Andromeda's Hero
Flower Alley

2004
none of note

2003
Buddy Gil
Outta Here
Ten Most Wanted

2002
War Emblem
Proud Citizen
Medaglia d'Oro

2001
none of note

2000
Aptitude
Impeachment
Trippi
Commendable

In addition to the 3 Derby winners in bold, Closing Argument barely missed in 2005. Perhaps the best year for "All Others" from Pool 2 was 2002, when it comprised 3/4 of the Superfecta. The exacta in 2008 wasn't a bad showing either.

I think there is a general tendency to underestimate the likelihood of "All Others" horses' chances. Sometimes it's "magical" (eg, Mine That Bird) and other times it's late development (eg, Big Brown).

Whatever the reason, somewhere in the 364 horses nominated this year, there are probably still a few more surprises waiting to join the list.

--Dunbar

Big Brown had a 106 Beyer alw win - without an easy trip - he would have had one of the highest lines. Probably even 2nd to Pyro on mine. It was pure stupidity for them leaving him off.

Ice Box would have had a line last year - he was the only trip horse in Eskendraya's Fountain of Youth.

Musket Man would have had a line - a small % one.

Sweetnorthernsaint would have had a line - as would Bellamy Road and Medaglia D' Oro - they were very fast horses like Big Brown .. the bias in inclusion to the future pools has always been to slowpokes with Graded success. Smarty Jones wasn't even included in pool 1 - and he was insanely fast sprinting as a 2yo.

We can revisit this after Derby entries are set.


--Dunbar