Last weeks preps ending 3/6.

Grindstone:



Silver Charm:



Real Quiet:



Charismatic:


Fu Peg:



Monarchos:



War Emblem:



Funny Cide:


Smarty Jones:



Giacomo:



Barbaro:



Street Sense:


Big Brown:




Mine That Bird:



Super Saver:

Thanks for making it one post Kasept.

Who was more impossible ... War Emblem, Mine That Bird, or Charismatic?

War Emblem and Charismatic both somehow went into the KY Derby with top last out Beyers ... Mine That Bird went in looking like a 5,000/1 shot.

If Giacomo was part of this class, he'd be the 4th or 5th choice in this round of the future wager.

Where would that put Going Wild & Papi Chullo who beat him in the Sham?

If you took a poll of everyone before the Sham Stakes - I'm pretty sure Giacomo would have been voted the #1 most likely horse to win the Kentucky Derby that year.

Even after his extremely maligned Sham stakes defeat - he was only 25/1 and 26/1 in the futures. In Vegas - I think he was like bet down to 10/1 or 12/1 before the Sham.

I think part of the reason he went off at 50/1 in the Derby was because so many people had future wagers live on him.

25-1 in the Future Wager I think.

The horse that gets lost in the post-script of that year's West Coast horses was Ross McLeod's ill-fated General John B (trained by Roger Stein!). I liked him best of the 4 out of the Santa Anita Derby, but he got sick and never ran again. You remember how everyone maligned the SA Derby was that year? And then Buzzards Bay, Wilko and Giacomo all ran well.. And General John B might have as well.

Buzzards Bay was the most juiced animal EVAH.. He was named the Jeff Mullins Project

Yep. Giacomo was 25/1 in round 1 and 26/1 in round 2 ... both came after his Sham defeat.

The thing about that Santa Anita Derby that year is that no one passed anyone. It was a total merry-go-round race. Mike Smith looked like he was going to make this wide sweeping winning turn move with Giacomo and he was flat as a pancake in the stretch.

Brad Free - and a few other West coast writers basically wrote that Giacomo was obviously the horse you'd want out of that race ... but, if you can't pass a Roger Stein 75/1 shot ... how can you expect to pass them all in the stretch of the Derby?

Real Quiet also looked pretty damn tough to like off an 8th beaten 22 lengths non-effort - as an even money favorite at Golden Gate.

If Borel had ridden either Afleet Alex or Belamy Road - they probably would have been five lengths behind Giacomo early on - and they would have come from 25 back to win by 10.

Did Borel have a mount that year?

Doesnt look like he did
The 131st running of the Kentucky Derby
Horse Jockey Wt. PP 1/4 1/2 3/4 1M Str. Fin. To $2
Giacomo Smith 126 10 18½ 18-2½ 18-1½ 11-hd 6-½ 1-½ 50.30
Closing Argument Velasquez 126 18 5-hd 6-½ 6-hd 4-hd 1-½ 2-½ 71.60
Afleet Alex Rose 126 12 11-hd 11-½ 9-½ 6-1½ 2-1 3-2½ 4.50
Don't Get Mad Baze 126 17 19-6 19-3½ 19-3½ 10-hd 7-½ 4-2¾ 29.20
Buzzards Bay Guidry 126 20 10-½ 10-hd 7-½ 5-½ 5-hd 5-½ 46.30
Wilko Nakatani 126 14 13-½ 14-hd 16-2½ 13-1½ 10-½ 6-no 21.70
Bellamy Road Castellano 126 16 3-½ 5-2 5-2 2-hd 3-hd 7-¾ 2.60
Andromeda's Hero Bejarano 126 2 16-hd 15-2 13-hd 16-2 14-1½ 8-no 57.30
Flower Alley Chavez 126 7 4-hd 3-hd 2-hd 7-1½ 8-1 9-hd 41.30
High Fly Bailey 126 11 6-1 4-1 3-hd 1-hd 4-1 10-nk 7.10
Greeley's Galaxy Desormeaux 126 9 17-1 16-½ 14-hd 8-hd 12-2½ 11-2¼ 21.00
Coin Silver Valenzuela 126 5 14-½ 12-hd 12-1½ 9-2 11-1 12-1¼ 38.60
Greater Good McKee 126 8 20 20 20 17-½ 15-½ 13-¾ 58.40
Noble Causeway Stevens 126 4 12-2 13-2½ 15-hd 12-hd 13-½ 14-2½ 12.30
Sun King Prado 126 3 9-½ 9-hd 8-hd 15-1½ 16-4 15-4 15.70
Spanish Chestnut Bravo 126 13 1-½ 1-1½ 1-1½ 3-hd 9-hd 16-7 71.00
Sort It Out Blanc 126 1 15-½ 17-hd 17-hd 18-4 17-2½ 17-3½ 61.90
Going Wild Valdivia 126 19 2-1 2-1 4-½ 14-hd 18-5½ 18-3½ 59.50
Bandini Velazquez 126 15 7-hd 8-2 11-1½ 20 19-3 19-12 6.80
High Limit Dominguez 126 6 8-2 7-hd 10-3½ 19-hd 20 20 22.50

Time: 22.280, 45.380, 1:09.590, 1:35.880, 2:02.750.

A few months ago, I posted that I was skeptical of Uncle Mo winning the Derby, citing his blow-out debut victory sprinting late last summer. My theory was that in general, 2-year olds who crush the field sprinting at Saratoga or Belmont don't develop into classic-distance horses. But to help Uncle Mo's cause, Smarty Jones, Funny Cide and Grindstone all won their debuts by open lengths in a sprint race.

War Emblem looked pretty bad at this point but, no Derby Winners PP's/cut has looked as bad as MTB's.
I will always believe that the Giacomo syndrome kept his odds below 300/1.

I don't think we will ever see a more impossible derby winner in our lifetime.

Silver Charm also won an extremely fast 2yo MSW race at Del Mar going just 5.5fs .. albeit that was his 2nd start.

Giacomo is the only real closer who never showed a lot of early speed at one-time.

Real Quiet was a speed and fade going 5.5 furlongs early on.

Charismatic blew several early leads - including some sprinting.

Monarchos led after a half mile in a very sharp 7f MSW win

Street Sense broke his maiden laying just a half length off of 21.60 and 44.20 fractions sprinting.

Mine That Bird was a multiple stakes winner sprinting at age 2 - and blew a pair of leads at the 1/4 pole in his two preps at Sunland.

Basically - if you haven't shown good early speed at one point ... you'll most likely plod home 3rd or 4th if all goes well. The horses who run 3rd or 4th are often among the last ones to press the reset button.

Why did Charismatic go off at such high odds in the Kentucky Derby showing the improvements that he had made?

I think Borel will continue to be successful in the Derby if he employs the tactics he used on Street Sense and Mine That Bird. With so many hopeless sprinters trying 10f's, any horse with stamina rallying from behind is guaranteed to pass a few.

Which is what kept the very average looking Elite Alex at 30-1 in Future pool 2.

You'd have to compare his PPs to the other contenders that year.

According to the recaps, it was a weird Derby- no pace and a lot of traffic trouble. Clearly a lot of people didn't feel Charismatic was the best horse even after the race- he wasn't the favorite in the Preakness, either.

Looking at Silver Charm's PP's is making me regret not throwing a few bucks The Factor's way at 37-1...

I'm searching for the PPs for the '99 Derby but can't find them. Any help would be appreciated.

Baffert had Excellent Meeting and General Challenge who both took a lot of action. Prime Timber (Lukas?) and Cat Thief did too... so Charismatic was looked at like his third string or so. Plus, Stephen Got Even was in the race, and he was well backed.

And probably more importantly... there was a mutuel field, and Charismatic was not part of it.

Stuck between some rocks and hard place. That helps me to understand it somewhat. I'd still like to see the PPs. Also I couldn't help but notice how many starts Charismatic had had at this point compared to the others that DrugS listed.

Try going to Dan Illman's most recent blog and request the pps. You will need to log in.
http://www.drf.com/blogs/handigambli...nta-anita-turf

I think it was just such a wide open race that Charismatic simply got lost in the shuffle, outside of winning the Lexington at 12-1 there wasn't much to go on..

Worldly Manner was coming in from Dubai, his Godolphin purchase price, awesome 2yr old form and Bailey riding gave him a lot of attention.

Excellent Meeting/General Challenge entry was pretty imposing on paper..

Adonis has just won the Wood..

Three Ring was the filly coming in off a couple of big wins in Florida..

Stephen Got Even had won the Jim Beam..

Desert Hero had won the San Rafael and was 3rd in the SA Derby..

Answer Lively was the 2yr old champion..

Cat Thief was Lukas/Overbrook and had been just missing in all his preps.

Prime Timber was another Baffert horse, he had won the San Felipe and been second in the SA Derby to General Challenge

First American had just won the Flamingo impressively.

Vicar had won the Fountain of Youth and Florida Derby

Menifee had won the Bluegrass

Ecton Park, Lemon Drop Kid, Valhol, Kimberlite Pipe and K One King made up the rest of the field.. between them they had won quite a few stakes as well..

Silver Charm's daddy was a G1 winner over 10f by Buckpasser and had already sired a G1 winner over 12f (Forever Silver, Brooklyn H). His dam was a 7-time 2-turn winner by Poker, damsire of Seattle Slew. And the The Factor is bred how?

I'll do some googling, but no promises. In the meantime, here's an article after the race with some description of the traffic troubles in the race itself.

http://www.heraldleaderphoto.com/der...9-charismatic/

War Front's are 15-for-54 (28%) in route races. They are 14-for-109 (13%) in sprint races.

War Front's are also 0-for-36 as first-time starters.

Good luck to anyone who has him pegged as a win early sire of nothing but sprinters. Almost everything of his that has stretched out has improved.

Charismatic and War Emblem both had one huge recent race. They both had the top last out figure going into the KY Derby.

The reason why they went off at such a huge price is because the race came from out of nowhere - and they bascially both sucked sh!t through a straw prior to the one big recent race.

If my recollection is correct, War Emblem was also allowed an uncontested lead. This hasn't happened since and will probably not happen very often given the amount of sprinters (that have won the majority of their graded earnings in sprint races as 2 year olds or early in their 3 year old season) now entering the derby

His progeny are having increasing success going long by the day. Summer Soiree, a filly you mentioned as being eerily reminiscent of Eight Belles with her huge improvement all of a sudden for Larry Jones is a War Front. So is the winner of the Grindstone at Fair Grounds on Saturday, Great Mills.

Forgot about Great Mills - 16-for-55 now I guess.

The Factor's Grand Sire is Danzig. For me, enough said. War Front was and excellent sprinter but his offspring might carry the Danzig gene further than he did. Soldat (by War Front) was not too shabby going 2 turns. All I was saying is at 37-1 there were worse places to spend a few bucks. Obviously, that is why he 37-1.

Thanks for posting that piece.

Not taking anything away from Charismatic or Chris Antley, but isn't this a Kentucky Derby story that gets played out a lot? Seemingly dominant (but relatively inexperienced) 3 YOs get rough trips in what is by far the largest field in which they have raced, while the horse and rider who may not be the best but are able to stay out of trouble and race closest to their style are able to pull off an upset. Charismatic had raced more than a dozen times goint into the Derby and was showing improvement in '99. Even though he got caught 5 wide in the first turn and 4 wide in the far turn, he was able to maintain a pace closest to his ideal race, setting up his "perfect" day. Everything came together for him, while the favorites got bumped and shuffled. He proved it was no fluke, going on to win the Preakness, but if the Derby hadn't been such a rough race - 19 horses, no pace - would he have won it? Forgive me if I'm stating the obvious, but it seems like in the Derby moreso than other races the winner is more likely the horse that gets the best trip than who is necessarily the best horse.

Obvious, yes, but not any the less true. Every time a columnist starts a lament about why we haven't had a Triple Crown in forever I always think "20 horses in the Kentucky Derby." I'm not saying that's the only reason, and if it were 14 horses we'd have had a bunch of TC winners (though I do think Afleet Alex would have won), but I think it makes luck an even bigger part of the equation.

14, 20 or 100 horses -- I don't think Rose was bright enough to give Afleet Alex the ride he needed to win that Derby.

Obviously.

Or KD on RQ in the Belmont.

OR GS on PG in the Derby.

Rose gets far too much criticism for that Derby ride. He had other rides on Afleet Alex that were worse (BC Juvenile).