What is your impression of this 3-yr-old Crop?
 

What is your impression of this 3-year-old Crop?

wimpy?

Getting much deeper. Looked like only two horses in January.

Right now I'd say about average.

I'll let you know when they - ya know - start racing against each other. We're in March and the top horse hasn't even started yet. I remember getting jazzed about the top horse having already run twice... times have changed in no time at all.

You mean you cant tell after 45 days of racing???lol

Hard to say yet but not overly fond of the breeding of early contenders. Uncle Mo, for example, may yet be any kind but breeding a concern!

:{>: They're all so cute! :{>:

That's retarded.

My impression is that this crop has more potential than most of recent years.

I'd have to go back maybe 10-12 years to find this many horses with this much promise.

Whether that promise will be fulfilled is the question.

Interesting that some folks here have such a high opinion of themselves that they cannot disagree in a civil manner.

This is retarded.

Would you feel this way if the de facto division leader was not by Indian Charlie?

I think there's not much depth at all in this crop. They don't run enough and the Derby trail in general is getting more and more difficult to get excited about.

It might be the strongest crop since. . . 2007.

Him? I'm sure he would.

There's about ten highly promising 3yo males who've run two races or less - and most of them have distance friendly pedigrees and big name trainers.

There's also a laughably pathetic division of older males - it's a complete joke that a bunch of 2nd time starters are almost as fast as the top older males in the country.

If you like ultra promising horses who've run twice or less - this is a glory year. Uncle Mo is ultra seasoned - he's actually run three whole races.

Please name the 10 highly promising 3 year old males who have run 2 races or less and have distance friendly pedigrees.

At this point in the year - Curlin only had a maiden race under him. Hard Spun had just run 3rd or 4th to Tuffelsburger in the Southwest. Street Sense still hadn't raced.

Any Given Saturday was workmanlike in a narrow win over a Michigan bred lonshot in the Sam Davis last out. Nobiz Like Shobiz was just a weak 3rd to Scat Daddy and Stormello in the Fountain of Youth.

This crop won't look good until horses actually start to race.

That's the problem. . .

I came up with Bind, Dialed In, Cal Nation, Albergatti and that's it off the top of my head.

Would To Honor And Serve Count as a horse with a good distance pedigree? I am not a pedigree expert but wasn't THAS Pedigree one of the reasons people were high on this colt?

Astrology maybe?

Runflatout might be ok.

Astrology is a plug and he also has five career starts. DrugS said two career starts or less.

For what it's worth, Astrology's damside was all about precocity as a 2YO. It's going to be interesting to see how much money he burns this year.

As far as some horses who I think perhaps have a lot of talent

Uncle Mo

Boys At Tos - If he ever gets back to the track

The Factor

Brethren

Soldat

Dialed In

Tapizar - If he gets back to the track

BTW I am in no way saying that all these horses have promising classic distance pedigrees in my above list. I am just saying that they may be talented. And I am only listing horses off the top of my head so I am sure I left a few horses off my list others may include as potentially talented colts.

One factor regarding pedigree that has held extremely well over considerable time is the number of points in a horses DP, since dosage was first computed in 1940, only 2 horses have won the Derby with less than 16 points in their DP...Count Fleet in 1943 (4) and Middleground in 1950 (12). Uncle Mo has 8 points, Mucho Macho Man has 12, Rogue Romance 12, Toby's Corner 10 and Gourmet Dinner 12. Not saying these horses can't defy this stat but obviously this is a concern if you are backing one of them, especially Uncle Mo.

I said most.

Bind
Dialed In
Runflatout
Hoorayforhollywood
Albergatti
Smash
Cal Nation
Heron Lake
Rothko

Ones who lack a distance friendly pedigree:
Flashpoint
Travelin Man
Glint

I forgot The Factor had 3 races instead of two.

Even among the ones with 3 races there is a multitude of promise.

Uncle Mo
The Factor (only one without a true distance pedigree)
Sway Away
Machen

Brethren and Elite Alex have been overhyped - but both have a distance pedigree - and are lightly raced enough that big development wouldn't surprise anyone.

Machen.. come now?

Turfers Data Link and Silver Medallion need to be added in the overall scheme of the crop.

Machen has way more natural speed than he's showed in his last two when his genius trainer opted to have him anchored behind very slow paces.

He simply needs to figure out how to break out of the gate - and to be allowed to use just a morsel of his natural speed - and he will be tough to beat in the LA Derby.

archarcharch

Chico d'Oro runs back a 2ndtime tomorrow in the SA 2nd.

Sadler has Cook Inlet (3rd in Factor's debut) just starting to work back. Candy Ride-Grove City (Pleasant Tap). Also has Doubledown On Ten (3rd behind Albergati in their debuts behind DaRuler). Rock Hard Ten-Beau Watch (Beau Genius).

That speed has been trainer out of him..He has done enough

Wow you are really sold on this Data Link huh? Doesnt Janney have one of these types every year, a marginal G3 type that never makes the big time

Who's the hot debuter in that race?

I wish Kantharos would have stayed healthy, he had some talent. Seems like most have forgotten him

The outside Bernardini colt, Wilburn. O/O Moonlight Sonata.

And I thought the Kathy Walsh colt, Purely Awesome, had a right to improve 2nd out. And Kurt Hoover said today he thinks Baffert's Rock So Hard is better than he's shown.

Watch that replay of his last. He was superb. He's going to be a nice player on the 3yo grass scene.

I was kidding with you. While I disagree that his pedigree is suspect, I wasn't trying to be uncivil. Sorry.

Really? How so? Almost every single crop in the last 10 years has sucked, and you know it.

Put Data Link in the Wood. Give him a shot.

Yes, I would feel the same way. I think their are a lot of lightly raced and untested horses in this crop, that have a lot of potential upside.

I totally agree though that these horses don't run enough, hence, I am somewhat noncommittal in declaring this crop to be great.