Circular Quay
 

Okay….I said last week that I was done posting on here because I simply did not have time anymore (which is true). But I have to make a special exception for this race. After his debut, Oracle and I (along with a couple other people) were saying that this horse was going to be a big time force in the 2YO division. People jumped all over us!
“It is too early!” some said.
“He is too slow” shouted others.
A few talked about he was not even one of the top 2YOs in his own barn! Now I don’t want to gloat too much over what happened today, but I would like to ask those people if they still think it is “too early” or if they think he is “too slow?”
And just remember that this guy is a Thunder Gulch, so when they stretch out to races 8f and beyond later in the year, he should only get better.
What a horse.

The fact that he breaks like crap also helps him becuase he doesn't get caught in nutty fractions

How this exacta paid $9.30 is BEYOND me

CQ is the MAN! Yes he did benefit from that insane speed duel, but what a closing kick! The races only get LONGER from here too which helps him.

he is definitely the best 2yr old since afleet alex. i like him more as they stretch out. he is not a freak though, just a precocious 2yr old. his lack of tactical speed is something they will have to work on. he will not always have small fields and fractions like that to run at. he is impressive though.

Horse is great and two year old usually don't make moves like that. Although Wild Fit is one that comes to mind. I think you have to consider how his out of the clouds running style will play out around two turns. Circular Quay looks like a real good one but I think the rest of field had quality horses and shouldn't be counted out going forward. It will be interesting to see these horses as the mature.

That's my boy!!

Have you ever seen anything more ridiculous than the odds they sent the entry off at? The entry should have easily been 1/5. I was 99% sure CQ would win, and I thought there was about a 1% Scat Daddy would win. When I turned on TVG 4 minutes to post and saw that the odds were 6/5, I nearly crapped my pants. What in the world were people looking at?

I was thinking the exact same thing and was relieved when they dropped to 4/5 because I was stuck at home and would've crushed them at 6/5.

Anyway, I'd love to hear from all those "blah blah blah, 84 Beyer, blah blah blah" people now.

Speed figures are great, but if you actually WATCHED this horse's first two races, you could tell he was something special. Tremendous run.

Now he'll get a big Beyer and the bandwagon will come charging.

I am waiting patiently for all the experts and analysts to explain what Circular Quay did today. There are several on here that have been quite opinionated with regard to how unimpressive he is. The initial reviews are in, he got yet another dream trip benefiting by the others knocking themselves out. He won’t be able to close like that as the races get longer.

After his first win we were told it’s too early, the race was meaningless.

After his next win we were told the field was weak and that the time was slow and that he benefited from an easy trip. Don’t worry, the better 2yo’s are waiting at the Spa and will rule the day we were advised.

Today the distance was longer and he faced the best so far. And even with his “sub par” action he absolutely crushed the field. A field which included his stablemate Scat Daddy, the horse with the beautiful long stride that the experts have already anointed as the best 2YO. Based on what, I’m not sure. But that’s what we have the experts for, to illuminate the path to truth for us.

Picking which 2YO moves forward to win the BCJ or which one will have success in the spring or the derby is a very dicey thing. No one knows how this thing plays out going forward. And I am not so naïve as to think the CQ will never meet his challenge and will just cruise to the Derby.

But I’m going to say what I have said after each of Circular Quay’s races. He does things, accelerates, changes course, closes well, that are often not things a 2yo does well. Each of his races has left me dazzled. He does something else that I like to see; he simply wins each race and in my opinion looks much the best doing it.

very nicely put arljim.

and dahoss, there are ALWAYS naysayers...always.

He is the best 2yr old right now but as Pletcher said, sometimes being the lone closer is as good as being the lone speed. When they go 22 and 44 you know the winner is coming from way back.

Why on earth Cornelio sent Peagasus so hard up front I'll never know. Simply no reason to do that. Anyone could tell how suicidal that pace was.

Its funny the way you put it but its true. there always is something wrong with every winner around here. I only learned recently that almost all of these horses are actually frauds.

That's why I love it around here the delicate balance of opinions.:)

I believe that your exact words about this horse in miraja's last thread about this horse was that "scat daddy can do anything this horse can do and more." Apparently they were right and you were wrong. Quay can and did win the Hopeful. Scat Daddy couldn't. Might as well admit when you are wrong.

I was wrong. That doesn't make me a coward. The fact is Scat Daddy ran a very impressive race too. CQ is going to have to beat him in a two turn race though with more than 5 horses where the fractions are 22 and 44 to make me a believer. CQ will NEVER beat Tiz Wonderful. I will bet anyone who wants that action when they meet.

Oh, I never said you were a coward. I don't even know you, so I certainly wouldn't say that.
I don't see why you feel the need to keep trying to find colts that you think are better than Quay. He looks like the goods to me. What do you see that after every one of his races you have some super colt who is way better than him?

No DaHoss, you have to remember that when he loses he becomes a fraud.

He won't lose this year unless he gets hurt. He is the best 2yr old out there and the second best is not close. That doesn't mean he will be a great horse next year. Anything can happen, but he will not be beat this year.

And we should listen to you based on your prediction(s) in the Hopeful...

That was my prediction. Tiz Wonderful is from somebody that knows what he is talking about.

I didn't see Tiz W run, so I have no opinion, but if they like him and unload, I wish them luck...

I hope he Tiz Fast, because that Coolmore horse keeps delivering when asked.

I have more claim to Tiz Wonderful than you guys. I knew about him 6 months ago. I saw him work a 1/4 in :20 3/5 at the Fasig Tipton Calder Sale. It was the fastest work at the entire sale. He was easy money for me first-time out on Saturday. The price was a gift.

The best 2 year old colt of them all still hasn't run yet. It's a Red Bullet colt that Darley bought at the Barrett's May Sale for $2.5 million. Out of about 2000 or so 2 year olds that I watched work at diffrent sales this year, this one was easily the best. I don't know when he's going to run. I think he's in New York right now. I believe that Eion Harty trains him.

Rup,
How do you know that the works in the spring will translate to the track?
I'm not hearing very good things about the Green monkey(to say the least) and I guess it has me wondering.
What percentage of the exceptional workerse become great horses in your opinion?

This rhymes. Cool. More.

Oh yes, I agree. That horse is wonderful!!! I can't wait until he makes his debut. I believe that he'll blow all the other horses backwards from the sheer force of him taking off around the final turn on the track. Okay, maybe that's a bit of an exaggeration, but he is unbelievable, and if he starts enough times to get him ready the BC...that is my BC Juv. horse. He'll win first time out. I would also love to see that Indian Charlie colt start too. You know which one that I am talking about. Any news on him?

Oh yeah, the Red Bullet colt's name is Unbridled Slew. The Indian Charlie colt is called Past The Point. I'm not seeing workouts on either one.

It sure is nice to here all this positive praise for various colts. Pne think i have to disagre about is the no tatical speed for CQ. When the button is pushed he is the fastest of all and I feel in a larger field he has enough speed to spot anywhere he wants. Granted his last two races he got left in the gate but I dont feel ths was by design. He has been trained to control his speed and that puts him way ahead of most right now. Isnt one of the top West coasters Cobalt Blue? Im not sure of the name but he has looked the best of the westcoasters to me.

The best of the west right now is Principle's Secret. Great Hunter is also very good and EZ Warrior was very good, but has been injured. Cobalt Blue is racing against them over on the west coast so he is keeping top company. Jump On In and Point Ashley seem to be two of the best fillies. I'm still waiting for a few horses to start that are very, very talented.

Exceptional workers in who's opinion? The horses that work the fastest are not necessarily good horses. If you just took the top 10 fastest workers at each sale, I don't think you would get a particularly high percenatge of stakes horses. You might get 10% or 15%. The way they move is more important than the time. If you have a horse that works fast and moves great, then there is a very good chance that he will be a stakes horse.

I think the percentage of stakes horses that I personally pick is very high. At a sale with 300 horses, there will usually be about 30 or so that I really like. I would say that about 70% of those horses on my list of 30 will break their maiden in either their first or second start. I would say that about 25% will be stakes horses. If I take my top 2-3 horses horses at the top 7 sales and make a list of my top 15-20 horses for the year, I think that close to 50% end up being stakes horses.

The Green Monkey was not one of my favorite horses. I thought he looked like he could run, but he wasn't even in my top 20 at that particular sale. I see horses go for $1 million that I wouldn't buy for $100,000. A good example is that horse Barbados. They paid $3 million for that horse. I didn't think that horse could run at all. It's all a matter of opinion. But some people's opinions are much better than others. Some people have a good eye and others do not. You have to know what you are doing. Believe it or not, there are plenty of people spening big money at sales that have no ability when it comes to picking out horses. Just because a guy is a decent trainer, it doesn't mean he will be a great scout.

Even if you are great at it, you will make mistakes sometimes. I picked about 20 horses at the Barrett's sale last year and I think 12 of them became stakes horses. That's the good news. The bad news is I missed both Henny Hughes and Brother Derek. Don't get me wrong. I thought they could both run. I made big bets on both of them first-time out. I liked them enough to bet but not quite enough to buy. Brother Derek just held his head a little too high for me. I can't remember what kept Henny Hughes off my list.

With regard to that Red Bullet colt that looked so good, I would say there is at least a 60% chance that he will be a stakes horse and that is being conservative. I think the chances are probably higher than that.

I would not necessarily expect those two horses to keep those names. When horses are already named before a sale, the new owner will often times change the name.

Thanks Rupert. That was a great and educational response.