Overlays that got away??
 

Not meant to be any sort of a redboard thread. Who do you remember as an overlay that should not have been. Doesn't matter if you liked the horse or not on that day. Obviously everything is easier to look at in hindsight.

One Ill always remember is Volponi. That was the first year I really started getting ready to bet a card a month in advance. Trying to find someone to make my illegal bets for me. Looking at PP's days out. Never could make him. Looking back now he could have easily been in the 15-1 to 20-1 range vs that group.

Blame. He won, but in hindsight, he was worth way more than what I bet on him. Of course, hindsight is 20/20.

Thirty Slews in the BC Sprint in the NY pools.

35/1 or so.

Dumb Nyers!

:zz:

Anees. 1999 BC Juvy.

I think Midnight Lutes second BC win at Santa Anita is. I remember telling my friend all week I though he would be even money or 4-5 just because of Baffert and how he was simply much better then Street Boss. I think he was 5-2 or 2-1. Not a crazy one, but still....

In my opinion there is a very fine line between overlays and dead on the board, and you only know for sure which is which AFTER the race.

Bridgetown paying $8.20 yesterday was pretty generous, IMO.

Barbaro in the Derby.........KNS in her 3rd victory @ Arlington, made my '09 Spa meet! :D :$:

oh yeah, they didn't get away.......... :)

Nearly every winning horse in at the 2007 BC. Every thing I lost at that year's cup was because I dismissed common sense horses and tried to get cute and find the huge score.

I agree about Barbaro. I narrowed that race down to him and another horse. I wont say the name its pathetic.

SNS?

Hell no. I hated him.
Its worse then that, MUCH MUCH WORSE.

Invasor in the BC

Disagree.
He was the price he should have been. People who bet him should thank Javier.

I thought Singletary had a huge shot in the 2004 Breeders' Cup and was working as a mutuel clerk at Lone Star. I was busy explaining to people who bought high priced seats in that section what an exacta is as he crossed the wire at 16-1.

I will forever be of the opinion that Furthest Land was one of the best overlays in the history of the Breeders' Cup. These were the horses that went off at shorter prices than him in the 2009 Dirt Mile (he went off 21-1):

Mr. Sidney (20-1)
Neko Bay (13-1)
Chocolate Candy (13-1)
Pyro (8-1)
Bullsbay (6-1)
Midshipman (3-1)
Mastercraftsman (7/5)

I agree.
I was astonished how people just disregarded his KY Cup Classic win in the race before at TWP.
I think he ran a 107 Beyer on the Poly there.
All he had to do was repeat that race.

It didn't hurt he had the greatest trip of all time in the BC Pro-ride Mile.

Sarava(can't remember exact odds in the Belmont 70-1?) Thundergulch(25-1 in the Derby, I think)
Still kicking myself over these two.

Slambino today at GSP

Monarchos paying $29 in the Derby in a race that had an insane amount of early speed. While Point Given ultimately proved he was the best 3YO of 2001, he was way overbet at CD off his perfect trip win at SA.

I forget the names and dates, but it was a couple of years ago at Fair Grounds. In handicapping a claiming race, I found a filly whose last two races were terrible, yet could be tossed out. She liked to run near or on the front and two back had been bumped hard out of the gate, forcing her to run out of her comfort zone. One back she had been entered way over her head and ran appropriately. Off her previous form, she should have been 5/1 or 6/1 at most. Then the only other speed horse in the race is a late scratch. Yet this filly is still 40/1 on the board! Being a total coward, I figured folks at the track knew more than I did, and only bet a small amount to show. She took the lead out of the gate and never looked back. Still kicking myself for missing such an incredible opportunity.

Thunder Gulch in The Kentucky Derby

Cigar at 6-1 in the 95 Donn Handicap against Holy Bull who was coming off a 4 month layoff. Even though the Bull broke down, Cigar was fit enough to smoke him.

He was 4:1.

But, you probably got 6:1.

Cigar was 4-1 and Holy Bull had started a few weeks before the Donn in the Olympic Handicap, not 4 months earlier.

*******...enough! You don't know me and I think you're a jerk.

Careful.....you might get outed.

But I so want to get to know you.

banks hill 6-1 in the 2001 bc fm turf. i think the chief knock was she had never run 10f. but she had won running uphill at 9f. she won by open lengths.

Shouldn't an overlay that got away be a horse that you just missed with at a fat price?

I wasn't born at the time - but this horse whos pp's I looked at yesterday kind of cries out for a thread like this ...



Horse wins an alw race at 5/2 at Santa Anita by 20 lengths - and is 48/1 in the San Felipe and just misses before confirming form at a shorter price in the SA Derby next out.

I don't think I ever recall seeing an alw race at Santa Anita won by 20 lengths before ... though - it was only a six horse field and over a sloppy track.

Top 4 for me are easy:

Invasor
Street Sense
Manila
Unbridled

Wilko BC Juvy
Singletary though someone mentioned him already
English Channel/Curlin Double at MTH
Barbaro for sure.
I was on SNS that day IC.

My worst "overlay that got away" was in the 2006 Ky Derby Future Wager, Pool 1. It was NOT Barbaro at 19-1; I wasn't at all tuned into Barbaro at that point. What I missed was "All Others" at 3-1, which I considered a huge overlay. On Saturday night the odds were sitting at 6-5, and I stopped paying attention. When I read that it closed at 3-1, I was shocked. Nevermind that it turned out to be a losing bet, I still think it was my worst "overlay that got away". (as DrugS pointed out, there is more than one way to interpret that title.) Ever since that blunder, I pay attention until the close of future pool betting.

Here are the final odds from that 2006 Pool:

A.P. Warrior 31.2
Achilles of Troy 26.2
Barbaro 19.1
Barbican 18.4
Blazing Rate 101.3
Bluegrass Cat 15.7
Bob and John 31.7
Brother Derek 16.5
Cause to Believe 59.3
Doctor Decherd 68.6
First Samurai 7.9
Flashy Bull 45.4
Half Ours 33.1
Henny Hughes 27.7
High Cotton 62.6
Itsallboutthechase 48.2
Keyed Entry 53.8
Lawyer Ron 21
Point Determined 18.9
Private Vow 14.3
Sorcerer's Stone 45.5
Stevie Wonderboy 8.2
Your Tent Or Mine 21.9
All Other 3YO's 3

My second-worst missed overlay was Volponi in 2002. In my line I had Volponi at 28-1 and posted elsewhere that I would bet him at 35-1 or more. Somehow I missed Volponi's 43-1 odds in all the excitement of getting my losing bets down on Milwaukee Brew and Macho Uno.

--Dunbar

Some of those are CLASSIC. Thanks for putting them up.

HAHA be nice to the poor guy.

All of the best overlays I ever got came in betting exchanges. I remember a few cases of horses I would have bet at their track odds of like 7/1 or 8/1 and I was able to secure as high as 20/1 or 25/1 for $20 or $30 or so... a lot of them didn't win - but it's still a big overlay.

Unless you're talking about debuters - To get big overlaid mutuals in the betting pools - you need one or two severely overbet short-priced horses. In the betting exchange - all it really can take is one guy to have a psycho strong opinion against a horse. The opposite can happen to ... I've seen horses win at 2/1 at the track who were even money or 6/5 in trading with good liquidity on both sides.

There's some truth to that. I've found myself saying both 'I can't believe that horse paid that much' and 'No wonder his odds were so high' in the same day. :p

pomeroy..:rolleyes:

Expansion Saturday in Fair Grounds Handicap. 32-1 for Assmussen after being competitive against graded company for quite awhile. I had him in exactas with 3rd, 4th, 5th and 6th place finishers but tossed eventual favorite and 2nd place finisher, Sleepless Knight. Got nosed out of $301 for a dollar exacta and had nothing to win on him....