Gulfstream Wednesday....
 

Race 4, Lets discuss it.

Im having a hard time with it. Appears to be a good amount of speed, and Todds horse looks OK. The problem is that horse beat nothings last time and pulled a dream trip doing it. Not to mention he will be really overbet because of connections, pedigree Etc. I dont trust Motions horse, but maybe that one is OK sprinting?? I am starting to lean towards the 1 entry.

I kind of like the 7 Senor Dehere. I need to take a better look at it tonight when I have some time. I'll look at the 1.

I lean to the 5 and 7, the lighter raced,surface proven runners not exiting a maiden race.

The 7 Toga race crushes this field, can he get back to that though? He really beat no one. The second place finisher is OK, but he has never been back on turf. I guess you can toss the Keeneland effort and the turf route, and say he is a grass sprinter. I dont know??? Avenging Spirit was even money that day, at the time it was his third loss as the chalk, even when he was not the favorite he is always well bet. He seemed to have a lot of potential early on, but he has really turned into not much. This is the horse I want to like, but I can see Todd being 8-5 and this horse being 5-2 and everyone else being an overlay.

First, it's a pretty poor betting race (7 betting #s) unless you have a pretty strong lean on a non-fave.

I don't see much speed at all. Red Jag isn't likely to outjump all of these and even if he does, he's got the 5, as I see it, and perhaps also the 2, right on top of him.

The 1A, 4, 6 and 7 aren't going anywhere early, imo. I suppose the 7 could send, but why would they? Who knows about the 2. He's pretty unlikely to last in any case.

I'd best guess that after 1/4 mile, Fiscal Stimulus leads or control-presses outside the 1 a/o 2, with the 3 --assuming he breaks clean-- getting a pretty good trip.

To me, the race chalks out 3 wide, which makes it a lousy betting race. If somehow the 1 and 2 take far more action than I expect, maybe Fiscal Stimulus gets lost on the board a bit and goes off 6-7/1 , I'd bet him to win or play 5/37.

The 6 is not running early? Take a better look.

He's seen the track once in 30 days and four times in the last 88. He was a bit lucky to beat Really S two back. On that day, Mcl25s ran a faster opening 1/4.

He was an 8x maiden who had gone off at 2/1 or less in 5 of his last 7 starts when he won. In all these races, he either failed or only marginally contended on the lead.

He couldn't keep up last race on the bump and was off 15-1 off his win. And now, not training well at all, you really expect him to run better early?

Really?

Please tell me how this is going to happen.

I see the race pretty much the exact same way. It's a pass for me.

I think he is a slug, but will be an early pace factor. On/press.

LOL.

Good luck.

Terrible race to have a discussion about. Stratford Hill looked like a future stake winner last time and he'll probably win, but who wants to bet him as the favorite?

You're better off eating lunch and watching the race than betting it.

#6 Avenging Spirit
 

I think I will take a shot with him at 5/1 or more.

Lets Discuss the 6th....
 

Since the 4th sucks.

I have no clue who to like. Anyone have any opinion? Clement has a Giants Causeway half to Medaglia D'Oro. That one has every right to be a runner, and Clement can fire first out. Likely underlay though. If anyone has a good reasson to like anything in this spot let me know. Its been 40min already and nothing is jumping out. Hows this for original Mott and Clement.

I think the 4th is more interesting then the 6th. The 6th seems like it could be a crapshoot. For some reason I think that the Toner horse could hit the board at a price.

Anything clever in the 4th? I think the 1 can win. The 1 is speed of speed, and the 1a could run late. Im not talking at 4-1 though. Im hoping 8-1.

1 should get out and be the one they have to catch. Not sure he will hold on. Still like the 7 but can't see it more then 5-2. Maybe Pletcher will get really over bet and 7 sneak up to 7-2.

As far as the betting goes I think the 1 will be around 6-5, the 7 anywhere from 5-2 to maybe 7-2 and then everyone else.

Ok, how about the 5th?
 

Im thinking stongly about all. 1/all/3.
If I catch the 1 in the first leg, Im looking strong.

If the entry is 6/5 (hilarious) than what is Stratford Hill going to be oddwise?

I meant the Todd, clearly. I have only said it 5x in this thread. I think the entry could be near 8-1.
Sorry for making an obvious mistake.

Well you said the 1. I just figured you were lying again. Step away from the computer for a few minutes at some point today. Give your poor keyboard a few minutes to rest.

The 3 in the sixth has as good a chance as any but I don't think that makes you or anyone else who connects in the first leg "strong" in a crapshoot race.

I leaned away from the 3 because the dam was a pure sprinter on the dirt who never attempted a dirt route. It would help if the sibling summary would separate the sprint/route record on turf so I don't have to make assumptions.

I like the 1 or 2 in the 6th and if I bet it I would look at DD's leading in and out of that race.

Seems like there is a lot of speed in the race, but I still find the Chad Brown intriguing. The Motion horse took back after the start in his debut and came from 8 back to pick up the pieces and break his maiden in Saratoga. His next two starts were on the poly and then in a route, then he went to the bench. I'm thinking he can figure as well if Motion has him ready (not sure of the price). Obviously the Pletcher horse makes alot of sense too.

Like I said, I think it's a much more interesting race than the 6th.

Im messing up bad in this thread. Im leaning heavily towards the 2 in the 6th. The Giants Causeway. Im not crazy about the 3, but thats the type of horse I would use in a wide open race.

Its funny how people can see a 7 horse race so different.

Personally, I thought the most interesting race of the day was the 8th Race. You have a situation where there are 3 horses with legitimate early speed lining up setting up what should be a quick pace with Commandeered, who has zero shot and has no real reason to take to the grass, Giant Ryan who has no chance to hit the board but looks to be a pace factor, and Exchanging Kisses who has early speed, and fits here but looks to be in a tough situation with some legit other speed. Then you have horses like They Call Me Giant, Sporty, Raging Wit, and Strong Commitment who all have run races easily good enough to win in the past, but over their past couple of starts have tailed off. Then looking at the race further, the horse I am in interested in is Tenth Wish. Yes, Jonathan Sheppard has had a rough meet so far, but he's certainly a capable trainer, and here's a horse who has to improve a bit, but he's done nothing wrong in his career, has won impressively, is stepping up a bit, but will get the setup here at is a fair price on the Morning Line at 8/1. He doesn't have to improve that much to win this race.

Tenth wish has real shot here. I'll be playing it with Raging Wit.

I like the Sheppard and maybe They Call Me Giant to rebound. Ill be using only those 2 in all multi race wagers.

Still the best around at analyzing how a race will be run.

2011-02-09 11:48:08 AM Aqueduct Race 2 $1 P3 on 3 with 1-4 with 5,7 (ticket:88883-3A642) $8.00
2011-02-09 11:44:06 AM Gulfstream Pk Race 4 $1 P3 on 1,3 with 7-9,11,12 with 2,6,12 (ticket:E66D8-CD242) $30.00
2011-02-09 11:38:01 AM Gulfstream Pk Race 1 $1 P3 on 6,7 with 1,4 with 2,4,6,10,11 (ticket:0CC56-849CA) $20.00
__________________
As you can see I used 1,3. They ran 1-2. Like I said in the other thread over 50% of your posts are shots at me. Who has the problem?

You sniffed out the favorite and 2nd choice. Congrats.

Has nothing to do with just how bad you are at identifying the pace scenario of races. Instead of trying to learn though, you'll just keep blabbing on.

So much for that theory :wf

I thought he was pretty impossible myself.

You should send him one of your special pics.

And you should get a blowjob from OurMissStormSewer.


God,a symphony orchestra's brass section isn't as horny as you.



( Oh..Stevie,you have left dummy's post up yet darted mine.At least what I said is true.)