Your Personal Derby Dozen
 

Today's Holy Bull officially starts the 2011 Kentucky Derby season. For most horse fans this is the most exciting time of the year. And with what seems to be a fairly talented crop of 3-year-old's there is a lot to look forward to.

I think us DerbyTrailers are very astute horseman and I thought it would be fun to list our own personal Derby Dozen.

Hasken's Derby Dozen comes out this week and it should be fun to see how are Derby Dozen's stack up against his. (Although I know Haskin has said his Derby Dozen list will inlude some pretty obscure horses this year.)

If you feel like participating I'd love to see what horses you'd place on your own Derby Dozen list:)

Here's My Derby Dozen

1. Uncle Mo - Distance may be a problem for this talented son of Indian Charlie. But if Uncle Mo is able to move forward from his 2-year-old form and improve with distance than the sky's the limit for this talented 3-year-old. With comparisons to such all time greats as Seattle Slew who knows this colt just may be one of the ones.

2. To Honor and Serve - With a great pedigree and a string of impressive performances To Honor and Serve easily finds his way onto the second spot in most Derby Dozen lists. I need to see him run against a more talented field though in order to get a better feel for his talents.

3. Comma To The Top - The West Coasts top derby contender. Comma To The Top has a great 2-year-old campaign behind him and seemed very impressive in his last start. I

4. The Factor - Bob Baffert is very high on this colt. If The Factor can rate who knows what kind of horse he will be. Extremely fast, The Factor already broke a track record at the beautiful Santa Anita Race Course. I will have to see more from this colt before I can draw any conclusions but I can not over look a derby hopeful trained by Bob Baffert.

5. Dialed In - This Nick Zito trained son of Mineshaft looked very impressive today in winning the Holy Bull stakes. In only his second start Dialed In made up a huge amount of ground and won under a hand ride.

6. Boys at Tosconova - Don't like that he missed the Holy Bull Stakes but Dutrow is high on him and the talent is obvious. His distance is a question but perhaps he'll be able to overcome that. If it weren't for Uncle Mo this colt would undoubtedly be the talk of the racing world.

7. Brethren - This half brother to Super Saver has been refered to as the second best three-year-old in Todd Pletchers barn by Todd Pletcher himself. Can't wait to see more from him.

---after my top 7 horses there is a slew of horses I could have used to fill out the remaining 5 slots-----

8. Washington’s Rules - This horse is getting some major buzz. Haskin likes him and his trainer McPeek is very high on him.

9 Stay Thirsty - I wasn't very impressed with his performance in last years Breeders Cup Juvenile, but I am still willing to give him the benefit of the doubt that he will improve in form as a three-year-old. I love his pedigree and I want to see him race as a three-year-old before I toss him off my derby dozen list.

10 Casper’s Touch - I'll give Steve Haskin the benefit of the doubt. If this horse is good enough to find it's way onto Haskin's early Derby Dozen I'll give him a spot on mine.

11. Rouge Romance

12. Astrology

Pletcher is quoted as saying that about Bretheren? I don't recall that - do you have a link?

I think your list is pretty fair. I would have Dialed In probably under THAS - who is still my Derby horse (I'll put him tied with Uncle Mo because I really think Uncle Mo will go on). Washington Rules is, I think, being highly overrated by some and I'm not sure how far the Factor wants to go (then again, everytime I question whether a horse wants to run that far, he inevitably has no problems). Stay Thirsty was not done any favors by Todd when he ran him in the BC off of the Hopeful - a sprint, 2 months before the race. I know for all of last year that ST was considered the 2nd best in that barn, surprisingly so given they thought he'd be a much better 3 year old. Everyone has a horse they think of as a dark horse on their Derby lists and he's mine.

Casper's Touch seems to be the wise guy horse and I've never been an Astrology fan even after he beat THAS.

Good stuff - I need to put together my list now. This is a very talented crop.....and the big guns from last year haven't even run yet.

Hey, thanks for the feedback. I will try to find the Bretheren quote. If I do I will def. post it.

Thanks! Either way, Todd is in good shape - but you can never have too many Derby horses. I'm definitely biased, I admit it, lol.

These types of lists are a lot of fun because many times we're putting horses on them based on potential, not performance. Some will fall off due to not living up to expectations and some will be added because they pleasantly surprise. FYI - Washington Rules finished 2nd in August to Stay Thirsty, so if he turns into a good horse, I won't exactly be upset. It's kind of fun to put horses on the list that no one else is high on. I mean, if you're wrong, no one will care, but if you're right, you can crow about it.

I didn't see the race, but Machen seems like he was impressive today at the Fair Grounds.

The field he beat was a special kind of pathetic.

Theriot - probably under instruction to do so - rode a miserable race but won by 5 lengths anyway.

He owned a serious pace advantage - and should have been able to win that race by 15 or more if he used it.

Yes it was..........I didn't want to say that, though. I hate to blame a horse for beating not great stock when they can't help who they run against at this point... just watch, though. When the lists are updated, he will be in the top 5 or 6 in most.

How much stock do you put into the fact that Mucho Macho Man didn't run all that well today? Did he flatter THAS? Not particularly, but I saw someone make this comment on another board - the implication being that THASmay not deserve his high ranking on most lists. Well I guess we'll find out soon enough, but IMO since those races were months ago - I don't really think it means anything, esp. since you'd think THAS has developed and is a better horse than he was last year. Bretheren is high on lists and the horse he beat in the CD allowance, Justin Phillip, ran last in the Lecomte.

The horse (Machen) has had two slowish starts in both races now.

Simply getting the horse to break well - using his pace advantage - and winning by a pole would have been my idea of a good prep.

Instead - they let him snooze in the pre-race - grab hold of him almost the instant the gates open - take him back behind slugs - get his face dirty a little - split horses and finish up strong like a workout.

Trainers sure do love the latter method.

I don't think Mucho Macho Man's race is kind of real tell in regard to To Honor and Serve. A lot too much gets made of that stuff.

Maybe they think getting dirt in one's face is a good way to prep for the Derby; now they can say that he overcame trouble.

I don't have a list.

Flashpoint, Indian Winter, Albergatti ;), Tiz Blessed, Alternation, Break Up the Game and The Factor are the main guys I'm keeping an eye on at this early point in time.

Forgot to mention when I do have an actual list in a month or so? You might wanna be sure to cross all the names off of your list.

That's how good I am at early Derby picks. :D :wf

Why is To Honor and Serve second on my list if I "need to get a better feel for him"?

In recent years the horses who have won the Remsen have not even made it into the Derby Starting gate. This along with the fact that I was not overly impressed by THAS Remsen performance make me need to get a better feel for him.

I thought the Remsen Stakes didn't really shape up into much of a race. I thought it was clear THAS was the best horse but it didn't seem like such a impress win. At least to me. It's fine to disagree.

So with all this the reason I put him at #2 on my list is that the astute horseman I know believe THAS is the clear 2nd best horse - right behind Uncle Mo.

I am not totally sold yet on that opinion, but if these knowing horseman say THAS is the second best colt right now than I have to give them the benefit of the doubt.

I will give them the benefit of the doubt until I have evidence to back up my opinion.

Mine starts and ends with Sweet Ducky

Break up the Game is a nice colt even though he hasn't won yet........I'm looking forward to his next race at a mile or 1 1/16

Which one do you like him for? Iowa or West Virginia?

Excellent question. Which is worth more?

WV I think and Breen has never been afraid to ship around.

Sweet Ducky gave it his all and Pants on Fire came close but they could not break Breen's now 0-29 streak in graded stakes races on dirt at a mile or more.

If you had the Hall's money you wouldn't be afraid to ship either....Anyway, I think he is a cinch in WV.

I think Tapizar is also a horse that deserves some respect. He is #13 on my list now but if he wins another race he'll move up on my list dramatically.

What if the twelve horses in front of him on your list all win another race too?

What if he never wins another race, will he move down?

Hahaha:)

Tapizar is not nearly as hilarious as Comma to the Top but those horses he beat in the Sham were mules.

What I like about Tapizar is he has proven that he likes Churchill. His maiden win was very impressive as well. Also he is already running faster than top older horses in California on the same card as him. (Not to say that the top older horses in California are so impressive:)) But in Kentucky he was running faster than older horses on the same card as him as well. And that was when he was only a 2-year-old. A 2-year-old running faster than 4-year-olds and up is very impressive. Don't you think?

Comma to the Top deserves some measure of respect. I don't think he's shown anything to consider him a hilarious addition to my Derby Dozen. However, I could be missing something. What did you see that you weren't liking in Comma To The Top?

Tapizar really looks like he could be a really good horse. However I want to see him run against other good horses not a bunch of bums like the ones he ran against in the Sham Stakes.

At least Comma to the Top is the second best bred horse on the list.

Though I don't really see him as a legit derby contender, I would like to see him on dirt before forming a strong opinion on him.

I've seen some comments all over the blogosphere about THAS and his "unimpressive" Remsen, but Mott sure has no doubts.

http://www.courier-journal.com/artic...Hb1F7MVl8Kk%3D

1. To Honor and Serve- Projects to hold together better then the big horse. Him and Uncle Mo are far better then anyone else at this point. Ill put this guy at #1 because he is already fast enough, I'm sure he will get the distance and I have confidence Mott will keep him together and map out the correct path to Kentucky. The only problem I have with this guy is who will the jockey be? I wont be happy if Mott puts Lezcano or Maragh on him. Hopefully its Gomez, but who knows.

2. Uncle Mo- The big horse, clearly. Everything he has done has been right, but you can also say that about #1 on this list. The distance is not really any problem with me for him, and its funny how some people knock him for that. I really have no good reason for him not to be #1. There is nothing wrong with him. I just like THAS a bit better moving forward.

3. Dialed In- His Holy Bull performance was huge. He was tons the best and did it the right way. He is in that next group of 5-9 horses though. He is no where near the top 2 at this point. The top 2 were running Derby type figures as 2 yr olds. Back to this guy, he has every right to improve and is in great hands. Very early on this Derby appears to be loaded with need the lead, speed and very good tactical speed types, and that could play into Dialed In's hands.

4. Soldat- I know it was over a sloppy track but this horse exploded. Everyone says he is a turf horse, but his best race ever was going 9f on dirt. I talked to 3 people before that allowance race, everyone of them loved Angel Penna's horse. Well Soldat laughed at that horse turning for home and absolutely demolished him. I think he is the real deal on dirt, in the best looking 3yr crop since Street Sense, Hard Spun and Curlin battled it out.

5. The Factor- This ranking is based on potential only. Anyone who likes him should tune into Santa Anita race 6 on Thursday. A loaded looking MSW going 8.5f on the main track. The 2-3 finishers from The Factors freaky maiden win return, and they both look to be very tough in that spot. He will have to rate and prove he can, but all time great trainer Bob Baffert can get him there.

6. Heron Lake- Broke his maiden like a good thing first time out, and beat a field that was supposed to be pretty good going in. This is another selection based on potential, but this is clearly Zitos #2 and he has never been shy with getting multiple horses into the Derby starting gate. Really excited to see this guy run back, it has to come soon though.

7. Jaycito- Had a nightmare run in the Breeders Cup Juvy. Next time he goes will be first time for new trainer Bob Baffert. He needs to improve, but he gives every indication he wants to run all day. At this point I like him better then anything I have seen out west.... Tapizar, Comma To The Top etc....

8. Stay Thirsty- He needs to come back running for me to still have confidence in him. I still like the pedigree and the connections and it appears he will have a soft path to the Derby for an owner who wants to get him there. The 3 defeats he has had have come at the hands of 3 very good horses, and he is not one of the babies who freaked out at 2. Leaving me to believe he can still improve a lot.

9. Santiva- 3 different trainers for him so far. Put in a good run last out to beat an overrated favorite. He needs to improve a lot to be competitive with the top horses of this crop.

10. Smash- Still one of the most impressive maiden winners I have seen. He needs to get back on the work tab very soon or he is off this list. The raw talent is here, its a shame there are some issues.

11. Machen- Really not sure what to make of this guy. My gut feeling tells me he will be really good, but Im still not sure if thats going to be good enough. A horse he beat in his MSW win came back to win fairly easily yesterday, Sour.

12. Soverign Default- He is likely a sprinter/miler, but I loved his comeback. Forced to run hard every step of the way of off a layoff while buried inside on the rail. I thought he clearly ran better then the winner, who is also likely OK.

What "soft" route is he taking? The horse barely has any graded earnings that allows him a soft route, unless you think this is Todd's "Illinois Derby" horse. :)

Who else with any talent is pointing towards The Gotham? Maybe I have missed something, but I have not heard of anyone good.

Heron Lake won't make the Derby and they would be foolish to even try; I don't think we're going to see him for awhile.

I agree with you about ST; I think Todd running him in the BC off a 2 month layoff and a 7 furlong race was stupid. We all have our dark horses, horses no one thinks much of, but I expect this boy to improve a great deal this year. The Gotham, I think, is a very good spot for him even not knowing who's running.

I'm not sure I think SD ran better than the winner, but I was impressed with him. I also think he's a sprinter/miler - he'd be hard pressed to make the Derby anyway.

One time with this son of Lemon Drop Kid!!!!

Attachment 1671

LOL....
Good Luck.

1. Uncle Mo
2. Uncle Mo's shadow
3. To Honor and Serve
4. Tapizir
5. Boys at Toscanova

Everyone else has a lot to show me before I delve too deeply. I'm not buying Soldat's slop run, Factor's maiden race, or Dialed In's prospects of only having 4 starts (looked green to me). "Boys" has been totally dismissed on distance limitations, and yes he may not get 10, but this is a really fast colt who was 6 lengths clear of the mortals in the BC.

[quote=Thunder Gulch;747861]1. Uncle Mo
2. Uncle Mo's shadow
3. To Honor and Serve
4. Tapizir
5. Boys at Toscanova

Everyone else has a lot to show me before I delve too deeply. I'm not buying Soldat's slop run, Factor's maiden race, or Dialed In's prospects of only having 4 starts (looked green to me). "Boys" has been totally dismissed on distance limitations, and yes he may not get 10, but this is a really fast colt who was 6 lengths clear of the mortals in the BC.[/QUOTE

Boys not being ready for a race he has been pointed to since November does not bother you?

Machen heading to The Risen Star.

[quote=RockHardTen1985;747863]That's why he's not #2, but being fast enough puts him out in front of the ones who haven't been that fast yet.

He worked on 1-27 at Santa Anita going 3 furlongs in 37.20

Thank You. Maybe its not to late for him. I loved his maiden win.