How fast was Secretariat in the Triple Crown Series?
 

Secretariat was obviously an all-time great 2-year-old ... though using a lot of modern handicapping techniques - I'm not sure he was the best 2yo of the 1970's as Spectacular Bid had a couple races clearly faster than his best.

Secretariat also had all very unimpressive (relative to his extreme ability) prep races going into the '73 Triple Crown series. His Wood Memorial performance in his final prep was abysmally slow. He ran just a 12 on the Ragozin sheets and was defeated by a loose on an easy lead stablemate named Angle Light who no one would confuse for a champion.



Supposedly Secretariat was being hindered by a tooth abscess - which luckily was finally discovered before the Kentucky Derby or else he might have run another dismall race. Without the toothache - he exploded and ran 3 killer races. I've looked at some PP's, result charts, and whatnot - here are my projections of how fast his three triple crown races probably were.

* Derby: Race #9 on the card - he won in 1:59.40 - Race #8 was an 8.5 furlong race won by Knightly Dawn in 1:43.80 (38 Beyer points slower than the '73 Derby winning time)

Knightly Dawn was a next out upset winner of the Grade 1 Jersey Derby. The 3rd place finisher behind Knightly Dawn was a horse named Settecento.



As you can see - Settecento was no slouch. He defeated Mr. Prospector last time out in the Derby Trial and just missed with Secretariat's winter rival Champagne Charlie two back. His subsquent form did start to tail however. The 2nd place finisher in that race was Crimson Falcon - was a suck up closer who won a Grade 3 stakes race the following year.

The other two route races on the card were race #3 and race #10. Race #10 was a horrid looking $3,500 claimer for older males at 8.5f which was won in 1:46.40 for 8.5fs (68 Beyer points slower than the KY Derby final time) Race #3 was a $5,000 claimer for older females won in 1:45.60 for 8.5f (55 Beyer points slower than the KY Derby final time)

Based on the relationship of the times in the four races - and looking at the pp's of the horses in those four races - here are figures I project.

From Derby: Secretariat ran a 125 Beyer, Sham ran a 121, Our Native ran a 109 Beyer, and 4th place finisher Forego ran a 108.

From Twin Spires Purse: Winner ran a 87 Beyer

From 5k older female claimer: Winner ran a 70 Beyer

From 3.5K older male claimer: Winner ran a 57 Beyer


On to the Preakness ... you have a dispute between the timer (1:55) and the Daily Racing Form time (1:53 2/5) .. the DRF time is obviously correct because the 1:55 time comes with a 25 flat opening quarter in the charts. The timer was no doubt tripped early .. as three cheap claiming races in the day all featured 23 4/5 opening quarters at 8.5fs. Anyone believe the early pace in those cheap claimers was really 8 lengths faster than the Preakness?

One race prior to the Preakness - Port Conway Lane won an alw race at 8.5fs in 1:43.80 (33 Beyer points slower than DRF Preakness winning time) - one race after the Preakness Buffalo Run won a 4K starter alw for older males at 9f in 1:51.00 (38 Beyer points slower than Preakness)

Buffalo Run was a rock solid 10K claimer with a 2nd and 3rd in recent alw tries. Port Conway Lane had been 1st or 2nd in each of his last 4 recent tries at the alw level. While not stakes caliber horses - these are useful older males.

Preakness: Secretariat 123

ALW for older males: Port Conway Lane 90

4k Starter for older males: Buffalo Run 85

9.5K claimer for older males at 8.5f: 1.5 length winner gets 80

5K claimer for older males: 4.5 length winner gets 78

3K claimer for older females: 0.75 length winner gets 63


Onto the Belmont - unlike the Preakness where you had six two-turn dirt routes on the card ... the Belmont is the lone two-turn dirt route and you had wind in play.

The track was sensationally fast for the Belmont Stakes ... one race prior, Forego (who I gave a 108 Beyer to in the KY Derby) was 1/5th off of a track record DESPITE having to run against a head-wind in the considerably long run down the backstretch.....



To almost break a track record - at a commonly run distance like 8.5f - while running the vast majority of the race into a head-wind is impossible even for a great horse. The racing surface was simply supersonic fast.

The Ragozin sheets have Secretariat running a 0 for the Belmont - the same number Easy Goer got for his romping Belmont win over Sunday Silence. The difference is that Easy Goer was 4 wide on both turns in his Belmont win - and Secretariat was rail-rail. Because The Ragozin Sheets bake ground loss into the numbers - even though they both ran the same number - Secretariat would have finished 6 lengths in front of Easy Goer ground loss not withstanding.

Considering Twice A Prince was 2nd - beaten all of 31 lengths ...



There's no way in the world Secretariat's Belmont was in the high 130's. Consider Easy Goer's Belmont Beyer was a 122 - I'm going 128 for Secretariat's Belmont. It fits with the beaten horses - and it's still a stunning number considering it was earned dueling Sham into a defeat on a hot pace - while running against a wind.


I'm pretty confident no horse comes close to Secretariat's triple crown series - and in terms of how fast he ran - my opinion is 125 in the Ky Derby, 123 in the Preakness, and 128 in the Belmont. I've held this opinion for a while .. but never have bothered to spend almost an hour typing up why - and basically 'showing my work'

Awesome work. Could you compare the Bid with Mo as a two year old?

Uncle Mo is certainly not as fast.

I think you can compare Uncle Mo's debut win with Discreet Cat's (lucky for Uncle Mo he's not being bought and heading for Dubai) - I think you can compare Uncle Mo's BC Juvenile performance with Afternoon Deelites - who absolutely freaked in career start #3 and obliterated Thunder Gulch with a 111 Beyer in the Hollywood Futurity.

Either way, people miss that 31 lengths is b/c no one ran on behind him.

Good stuff, DrugS. Thanks for posting it.


--Dunbar

Great stuff as usual.

Even if the Belmont track was juiced- clearly- mid 120's for a spring 3yo is silly.

I've read a few articles that held up Bid's 7f World's Playground win (2yo) as perhaps his best from a final+ variant rating, even better than the Strub world record at 10f.

The final+ variant rating is flawed - for starters, you'd be comparing Santa Anita with a lesser track in that example.

Spectacular Bid was much faster as a 4yo than as a 2yo. He was wickedly fast at all ages.

Sure - but it was as amazing a display of sustained speed as anything maybe in history.

Sham tried to go with him and he stopped in dramatic fashion far before the wire.

Had Forego been entered in that Belmont - and sat off the Secretariat/Sham battle in a perfect spot ... he still would have been trounced despite the perfect setup. Secretariat simply never softened up. Obviously the winning margin would have been only about one-third of what it was.

Something can be exceptional and overrated at the same time.....And then something can be exceptional and underrated like Bid is.

There's nothing overrated about that performance ... it was easily the single greatest performance in the history of the triple crown.

Perhaps Secretariat's career as a whole is a little overrated because he was at his best when all eyes are glued to racing for five weeks... and he had his share of peaks and valleys in his form.

It was exceptional as an individual race, I agree. But people point to the lengths he won by and don't understand why he won by so much....I've been over this in the Reading Room on Bid vs. Secretariat.

There's absolutely nothing overrated about Secretariat's Belmont.

Spectacular Bid is not remembered as kindly because he lost the Belmont. It's entirely unfair, but that's just the approach many people have taken.

Yep.

I think Spectacular Bid's best moment at age 3 was probably his 5 length win in the Malboro Cup over an extremely strong group.

General Assembley was a 15 length Travers winner in still standing track record time last out - and a next out Vosburgh winner. Costal had easily won six straight races - including the Belmont Stakes coming in. Star De Naskra had won his last 7 in a row including the Whitney. Cox's Ridge had won 16 out of 28 lifetime including the Met Mile over the track and was in good form. Text was another older horse - he was a 6 time Graded Stakes winner who had a Grade 1 win two starts back.













To bury a field that impressive by 5 lengths without running much faster than your typical race all season long - that's impressive.

Even both Affirmed and Alydar were truly great, great 3yo's. If you want to talk about overrated - relatively speaking - Seattle Slew had no prayer against these kind of horses at age 3. After his flop at Hollywood Park - he left the Billy Turner barn and was an outstanding 4-year-old.

What i also find astonishing about Secretariat during the triple crown races was his recovery time off the Belmont. Did he not run at Arlington 3 weeks later?

Yes..here are his full PP's

http://www.secretariat.com/past-performances/

Is Prove Out's 2:25.4 in the Woodward the second fastest ever 12F on dirt?

I have no idea...but Prove Out was like an Allen Jerkens miracle and pretty dangerous on a loose lead. The Woodward was Prove Out's 4th start in September of '73 alone. Can you believe he went off at 9/2 odds in his next start after romping over Secretariat in the slop?

I have two cuts of his form: Mid season 1973 before Allen Jerkens




Catching fire once Jerkens took over his training:




Jerkens also upset Secretariat with Onion in the Whitney - Onion was basically a need-the-lead sprinter.

nice job drugs

How did Secretariat look on the fat charts?

Not nearly as good as Zenyatta.

:tro:

Others I've projected:

Affirmed: Ky Derby 116, Preakness 115, Belmont 118
Alydar: Ky Derby 114, Preakness 115, Belmont 118

Spectacular Bid: Ky Derby 119, Preakness 120, Belmont 111

Seattle Slew: Ky Derby 108, Preakness 112, Belmont 107

Damascus: Preakness 111
Dr. Fager: Jersey Derby 116


A few really old ones that pre-date Ragozin numbers and are silly to even attempt to guess at but looked fast:

* Whirlaway's 8 length KY Derby victory in track record time: The final time was 50 full points faster than the days other route - a $1,000-to-$1,250 claiming race for older males. Your avg winning Beyer of a typical bottom level claiming route for older males at a decent caliber track today is 67. Adding 50 would get you to 117. You had four other routes the day Whirlaway won the Preakness - that race looks in a 106 to 112 range.

* Swaps ran 49 points faster in his KY Derby win than an open 5K CLM route for straight 3yo males in the days lone other dirt route. Considering the year was 1955 .. there's a chance that race might possibly be as fast as a 120.

* Man O' War's Preakness was five points faster than a solid winning older male named Irish Kiss ran that day. Irish Kiss was 3rd by 2 at 16/1 last out to a horse named Boniface - Boniface was subsquently 2nd in that years Brooklyn and Suburban. I would guess his Preakness to be in like a 106 to 114 range. His Belmont to be in a 110 to 118 range.

It's pretty remarkable that Secretariat has such an edge over everyone over the course of the whole Triple Crown series. There certainly have been better entire careers imo - but put 126lbs on them, make them go 9.5 to 12fs in the middle of the 3yo season, and he really does stand out.

* Swaps ran 49 points faster in his KY Derby win than an open 5K CLM route for straight 3yo males in the days lone other dirt route. Considering the year was 1955 .. there's a chance that race might possibly be as fast as a 120.

Erb lives in Saratoga and is a family friend. Says Swaps was the best horse he ever rode and it was amazing being on him.

Who was the second fastest horse he ever rode?

Haha, not Needles though...

Fun to talk to that's for sure. He rode in Mexico for a short time and actually saw a horse put down with a gun on the track in front of patrons in the 30's...you don't see that everyday. Never broke a bone in a long career. Better to be lucky. :D

Thank God!

All numbers aside - the best winning Derby performance visually to me is easily Seattle Slew.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iw-QYkEjVBM

Pretty amazing to see a horse break like that and just bull his way up into a speed battle on a 45 and change pace and still win.

If anyone actually saw the form of the Derby 3rd finisher, Preakness 2nd finisher, and Belmont 4th finisher that year ... they'd want to vomit. Nolan's Cat and Scrappy T. might have hung tough with them.

Using numbers and trips in tandem - I think Touch Gold's 4th in the '97 Preakness is probably the most under appreciated triple crown performance I've ever seen. He had a horror trip in a very fast Preakness - and was still right there at the end.