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Girolamo
This horse will run all day long. It's pretty funny that he's still never run beyond 8fs on dirt.
If pointed to a race like the Santa Anita Handicap - he'd be more likely than anyone to win that race. |
I guess he could also go to the Donn.
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Or Dubai.
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He's been a favorite of mine, but I didn't think he ran more than "ok" in the Cigar Mile...... I never thought it was "fair" to classify him as a miler based on an ill-advised journey out west, but he doesn't strike me as a horse that will thrive at longer distances.
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I shouldn't really ask, as doing the total opposite of what Godolphin wants to do with a horse would probably be a very successful approach. |
He's one of a frustratingly long list of mis-managed horses by Godolphin.
This was a banner year for their ineptitude. I can't quite figure out what's the problem because Rick Mettee is an awfully sharp guy. Between Sara Louise being rushed into a 9 week campaign to Girolamo debuting in a GI to Vineyard Haven totally falling off form to Regal Ransom having a campaign headlined by winning a N3X at Saratoga, it was just sickening. Thank God Hibaayeb won a disgracefully bad Yellow Ribbon and Girolamo won the worst Vosburgh in its history. |
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The older male division going long is as weak as ever - it's a complete and utter joke with Blame and Quality Road out of the way. Like with the vast majority of A. P. Indy's - Girolamo's best game will inevitably be going long on dirt. While he has tremendous natural speed for an A. P. Indy .. he keeps having to be rushed along after a furlong or so just to hold position. That's happened in every single race of his this year. He won the Vosburgh inspite of it - because that field sucked. |
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Which makes me wonder if they are sabotaging themselves on purpose. I know that sounds implausible, but the way they run things, nothing else really makes any sense. |
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Because I toss him every time he runs with the utmost confidence. I love those over bet/over hyped horses. |
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In terms of ability - I'm not sure there's another older male left in the country who I believe is much better than him. Saturday was the first time I ever remember betting him in his career - and I bet virtually peanuts on him because he was coupled with the hopeless Vineyard Haven. |
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Look at this... http://www.timeform.com/godolphin/gd...5060&source=01 These are seriously good horses. Or were... :confused: :wf I don't know what to think anymore. I'm not defending anyone anymore. Fin. |
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Give Haynesfield an easy lead and it's Katie bar the doors. |
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Here's a horse, going on 5, that's made all of 11 starts, despite racing at 2, 3, and 4. Physical issues are probably a very real limiting factor here. Furthermore, whether you want to call it mismanagement or not, he's been kept for the most part around one-turn during his career and it would be quite a feat for the connections (who everyone agrees are inept) to re-develop this horse into a two-turn runner. The progeny stats for AP Indy are a huge selling point, but looking at Girolamo closely, how many other AP Indy runners have his kind of natural speed (I don't agree with your "rushed along" comment)? He's constantly in the thick of it early at shorter distances, often under strong restraint from his jockey. He's been up close in nothing but fast-paced races with fractions of :45-:46+ and 1:09+. He almost certainly would be on the lead in races of 9f-10f. He appears to have little acceleration (Jersey Town left him for dead on the turn the other day) and no real "move". He's not a typical AP Indy plodder. Visually, he's never really finished up particularly well. He was under a heavy drive just to make up a couple of lengths on two sons of sprint sire Speightstown this past weekend. He looked good in an allowance last year, but that just brings up another question mark...his class. He's won 4 of his last 7 dirt races. Looked at the other way, he's lost the Cigar Mile, BC Sprint, and Forego...all open races He's won a couple of conditioned allowances, a 5-horse age restricted Grade 1, and held safe one of Oaklawn's finest in Riley Tucker. I would point to that great barometer of future success, the now defunct Futurity Stakes, as further evidence of his "cut below" status. He was outrun by Charitable Man, Flying Pegasus, and Kensei that day, and faltered alongside the decidely non-Grade 1 colt Freisan Fire in what turned out to be a preview of failure for the following 2 racing seasons. |
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He was 2 years old when he ran in the Futurity and he didn't run badly. Most Indy's improve with age, so they gave him time off and he came back brilliantly as a 3 year old. I don't see how his 2 year old races are an indication that he lacks sufficient class........ |
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In sprint races - they break well - and start struggling to maintain position after a few furlongs. After watching the Cigar Mile again - you're right - he wasn't rushed along like in the other sprints .. but he still was in a spot he wouldn't be in going long. He wouldn't have to worry about being 5th or so, in a pack of 3, and getting dirt kicked back in his face. I think he'd get a ton of perfect trips at 9fs or 10fs - the way a Quality Road or Left Bank always would. I have no doubts about his ability to stay a distance against chumppy top competition in these rich 6 horse field stakes to come. |
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Also, Haynsefield and Morning Line seem like better candidates to fill the niche you're envisioning for him. |
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Im sure this will make you change your opinion, but I think Giralomo could EASILY BE THE BEST HORSE IN TRAINING NEXT YEAR. They need to campaign him the right way. Break-prep-Donn and go from there. Not this bullshit with the winter and spring off. Let this horse roll in the 9f and 10f US Classic races. |
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Oh god.
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Goodnight. THat was a quick sloppy list. |
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For instance, in what I would call maybe his second finest performance, we have.. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FWVAHhIr3Z8 And in the SA Derby, this clip shows him a few lengths back on the turn, but I recall him being closer up earlier in the race. Either way, it's not like being 3 off of Bertrando is exactly slow. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7eQSeOhJKW8 |
Considering it's 1-9 that Girolamo is going to Dubai, how is it even remotely possible he has any kind of campaign next year? He'll make a start or two in Dubai. If he hasn't been destroyed after that he'll resurface at Belmont or Saratoga. One or two starts before the Breeders Cup and that is it.
I just don't see what some of you others do with him. Don't get me wrong, by 2010 standards he's okay. But I'd rather have Morning Line, Successful Dan, Fly Down (assuming he doesn't get ruined going to Dubai), even Reading Colliery. |
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His rally several lengths behind dead closer Strike The Gold after a horrendous start to reach contention in the JCGC would have achieved legendary status had he been able to sustain the run. Too bad Eddie D. let him get involved, he might have been a better price in his final start if he let him just follow the field the home. Not sure what happened to him in Canada, the only real blight on his record. |
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I fear Fly Down is another one of those BC Classic 3rd place finishers who thrive going 10fs with a hot pace to aid them. Going 9fs - in smaller fields - at easier paces for speed horses (like the '10 Jim Dandy) - I think he'll underachieve. However, there really isn't much out there - so maybe he'll win a big race or two on the square. |
Going 9 or 10f on dirt, I would take a shot with Giralomo before I bet anyone out of the Clark!!!
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He stunk in Canada because, I believe, he was under prepared for the race. Twenty years ago, Drysdale was absolutely the worst trainer out there for winning with horses off of a rest. Over a significant period of time, he was about 1% with those. |
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I don't know how far Wise Dan is going to go, but I thought he looked okay on Thanksgiving going a mile. 102 Beyer and Leparoux had him strangled also. If Lopresti can keep him and his half brother sound next year I think they can win a lot of races.
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I was at Belmont for the JCGC - Indy acted up before the race, lol, rearing and just otherwise being rambunctious. He ran great in the Gold Cup, but still I was surprised that he was the favorite in the Classic.
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Why?
I'd have been shocked had he not been favored. He was clearly the best horse in the race, and ran the best prep race, by far. To me, in the history of the BCC, he was perhaps the second biggest lock to win the race. The first biggest lock being the SS/EG exacta box. |
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