11/25-26 (CD): Falls City H. (G2); Clark H. (G1)
 

11th (4:24) Falls City H. (G2)

1 1/8 Miles | Fillies and Mares | 3 Year Olds And Up Stakes | Purse: $150,000

1 Dundalk Dust Bridgmohan S X 114 LA
2 Third Dawn Desormeaux K J 118 LA
3 Striking Dancer Leparoux J R 117 LA
4 Distinctive Dixie Albarado R J 120 LA
5 High Quail Castanon J L 115 LA
6 Ravi's Song Mena M 114 L

FRIDAY 11th (5:42) Clark H. (G1)

1 1/8 Miles | Open | 3 Year Olds And Up Stakes | Purse: $500,000

1 Dubious Miss Albarado R J 116 L
2 Apart Gomez G K 118 LA
3 Successful Dan Leparoux J R 121 L
4 Giant Oak Bridgmohan S X 115 LA
5 Redding Colliery Napravnik A R 117 LA
6 Brass Hat Farina T 116 L
7 Stately Victor Lebron V 116 LA
8 Win Willy Berry M C 116 LA
9 Regal Ransom Lenclud F 116 L
10 Demarcation Desormeaux K J 116 LA
11 Duke of Mischief Coa E M 116 L

Do we think Redding Colliery will be any semblance of a price?

Interesting clark

I haven't seen pp's yet or anything but, no matter who I play here, I'll be rooting for Brass Hat.

Wondering if it was the owner or trainer that took Jesse Campbell off Apart?

Yes he will be. You have Breeders Cup horses running. Apart and SD, Apart will def be the chalk. SD beat the Warrior over the track.
I think Redding is around 6-1.

I think Gomez is just getting Stall's top shelf horses. He is riding Aide in the Golden Rod on Saturday as well.

Campbell certainly didn't do anything wrong and neither did Jamie Theriot on Blame last year. They just want Gomez in big spots.

I think Redding Colliery will win and Successful Dan might be a decent bet against considering none of Charlie Lopresti's horses that seemed to be setting the world on fire in September and October have come back to run that great at CD (Turallure, Wise Dan, Here Comes Ben).

I can't see him being 6-1. That win at Hawthorne looks awfully good in his PPs and the figure will stick out to people. I do agree that Successful Dan and Apart will be overbet to some extent.

What about Jamie coming off Blame last year? JT rode him really well, no reasson to put Gomez on.

Depending on how the race is bet, maybe Successful Dan is a bet against, but he was awful good last time. He has shown that he can handle dirt in the past and I just think he is better than Redding Colliery.

I don't think Turrallure or Wise Dan ran bad. Turrallure tired a bit late, but he made a nice move at the winner, who I think we both underrated. I thought Wise Dan ran pretty well all things considered. Here Comes Ben was awful, almost too bad to be true.

Redding Colliery is so much better then SD its really not even close. I cant see a situation where Successful Dan wins this race.

The pp's don't go back this far but I remember picking him (Redding Colliery) at least 3 times at Nad al Sheba and he disappointed me every time.

I need to let go of that! :D

PPs for anyone who needs them...

http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html

surprised to see Redding Colliery at 10-1 on ML

You better Free Willy in here.

Hey if anyone is gonna be there (not likely, I know), please bring a camera!

(Please be advised I am in no way suggesting he should be the favorite or that he'll win. I may be sentimental but I also have a little bit of a grasp on reality). :D

Race 6 - 3:09 PM Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Pick 3 (Races 6-7-8)
STARTER ALLOWANCE $5,000

Purse $19,800. For Three Year Olds And Upward Which Have Started For A Claiming Price Of $5,000 Or Less In 2009-2010. Three Year Olds, 122 Lbs.; Older, 124 Lbs. Non-winners Of Two Races Since September 26 Allowed 2 Lbs. A Race Since Then Allowed 4 Lbs. (Races where entered for $5,000 or less not considered in allowances) (Highweights Preferred). Seven Furlongs.
P# PP Horse Virtual
Stable A/S Med Jockey Wgt Trainer M/L
1 1 Archie Trucker (KY) 4/G LA R B Homeister, Jr. 122 D J Alfir 6/1
2 2 Candid Image (MI) 6/G L A Canchano 120 G S McCarty 20/1
3 3 Cape Hatchet (CA) 5/G LA J L Castanon 122 J Woodard 9/2
4 4 B L's Tsumani (FL) 5/G L T L Pompell 122 S Manley 12/1
5 5 Badger Barry (KY) 6/H LA J R Leparoux 122 G D Foley 5/1
6 6 Santana Strings (FL) 8/H LA S Bridgmohan 120 S M Asmussen 7/2
7 7 Run With Eagles (KY) 4/G L L J Sterling, Jr. 122 S Manley 30/1
8 8 Ready's Rocket (KY) 7/G LA R Albarado 120 T Glyshaw 5/1
9 9 Northern Vow (KY) 6/G LA F Lenclud 120 G T Forster 15/1
10 10 Chance and a Half (AR) 5/G LA M C Berry 120 R Moquett 8/1
11 11 Doublefour (KY) 3/G LA J McKee 118 W R Connelly 20/1
12 12 Saviano (KY) 7/G L M C Baze 120 C Bowman 15/1

I don't think he'll be over 4-1. He strung the field out 20-25 lengths at Hawthorne for most of the race. The deep track made the pace not seem as fast as it actually was.

A lot of these horses ALWAYS TAKE $. RC will be in the 5-1 to 6-1 range, and is the most likey winner of this race. Its him and Apart..... Then everyone else.

I think there was more bumping from start to finish than the Derby. :zz:

Ick. Giant Oak is a Grade 1 winner.

Redding Collary was roughed at start too.

****ing Giant Oak finally wins at a price
 

and i was off doing Black Friday bullshit, arghh!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Memo to Rose Napravnik:

IF McLaughlin lets you ride that horse again, do not try to rate him. If you let him roll, he would've avoided all that trouble. What was the opening quarter? 24 4/5??

Had he been rolling early he would have finished farther back then he did.

I'm not sure how you are coming to that conclusion. He set a very fast pace (adjusted) in the Hawthorne Gold Cup and still had enough left to outfinish Giant Oak. Now what was he? 1-2 lengths ahead of Giant Oak on the backstretch? What was the half in the Clark, 48 and change? 49?

While I agree that he should have been closer, the race collapsed and there's no guarantee he would've stayed on.

It's Rosie ... and why bother with memo's to pinheads?

There was no pace at all on paper - other than the hopeless Regal Ransom - and she decides to reach up and grab a horse coming out of a race where he earned an absolutely supersonic pace figure and beat Giant Oak - who got the pace setup of a lifetime and could only manage 2nd.

It was a clever change of tactics - take away a horses best weapon - so you can get Knocked sideways around the first turn while eye balling other horses. I realize the bump on the far turn was what led to the DQ ... but that was the best thing that happened to Rosie the whole race.

Everytime Redding Collery doesn't run a very big pace figure - he runs like dogsh!t. He had a perfectly clean trip at Monmouth - but Duke of Mishchief absolutely toyed with him in a cleanly run slow paced race.

I was telling people that I was going to be fuming if she doesn't have a two length lead on Regal Ransom through the first turn - I needed to be scraped off the floor when I saw her taking him back - keeping him wide - getting bounced around like a pin ball - and eye to eye with a pack of other horses while several lenghts off the leader behind a pokey pace.

Yeah - the race "collapsed" because the two horses up front suck - and Giant Oak and Succesful Dan are simply much better than any horse in that race who didn't finish in the top 3.

The pace was a friggen joke. 48.92 for a half mile and Successful Dan almost ripped Leperoux out of the saddle. It was a crawl. Cheap claimers went much faster at the same distance.

That's not a collapse. That's the two best horses in the race outrunning a pack of inferior horses.

He held off Giant Oak with ease at 10 furlongs last time out ... at 9fs it would have been a piece of cake.

With ease? Hyperbole at it's finest.

Face it, Reading Colliery just isn't as good as many think he is. he wasn't winning under any scenario today and would have been gobbled up by Successful Dan had he been on the muscle throughout.

yup

Based on what - the fact that you didn't like him beforehand - or the fact that Randall agrees with you ... which should always make one question their opinion.

Obviously Giant Oak is a much better horse than everything in that Clark field not named Successful Dan .. but he is not better than Redding Collery.

Redding Collery - on figures - should have had a 7-to-9 length early lead over Regal Ransom - he's that much faster early on than Regal Ransom... and Regal Ransom (fresh off of his 69 Beyer last out) was the 2nd quickest horse in this race.

Even the Moss Pace figures say the same thing.



All the credit goes to Rosie ... she's actually going to get a slower first call pace number than the 48 she got at Monmouth when Duke Of Mischief pissed all over Redding Collery.



He was a much bigger price than Apart - who is a complete piece of crap and should have been 30/1 in the Clark. How good do people really think the horse is?

Apart really was hilarious at 7:2. He was a litmus test horse.

You mean the guy that wrote this "Off his last two performances, it would be a surprise if Apart, barring injury, isn't a major Grade 1 force next year" was wrong?

http://www.drf.com/blogs/praise-apart

Crazy. Somehow, apparently, despite running slowly, and winning with perfect trips, being Blame's barnmate was going to elevate his skills.

Lots of words and you really said nothing here. You're Classhandicapper with a better opinion, congrats.

Not sure what Apart has to do with anything. I'm basing it on my opinion of the horse. I don't need to be Kreskin to figure out you liked Redding Colliery and instead of just accepting he's not that good, it's going to be excuse after excuse. Successful Dan is better than he is. Much better.

Simple question, if he opens up 5 or 6 early, who do you think wins the race?

Apart is in the unenviable position of having the same connections and similar profile to Blame with the betting public (and the connections themselves) in turn anticipating that "lightning will strike twice".

Others in this category include Postponed (cf. Lemon Drop Kid), Smooth Performance (cf. Go And Go), Pleasant Tango (cf. Pleasant Tap), Opening Verse (cf. Blushing John), Hello Broadway (cf. Nobiz Like Shobiz), siblings of Barbaro, siblings of Mineshaft, siblings of Giacomo, any Team Valor purchase from South Africa, etc.

It will be hard to live up to either Ipe Tombi's outstanding 1 for 1 record or her great production as a broodmare.

Redding Collery absolutely wins. There's not even a morsel of doubt in my mind.

Successful Dan is a very good horse - probably every bit as good as RC...he crossed the wire first in a Grade 1 today despite being rank and erratic - and throwing more body checks on other horses than the "crash line" of Mike Pauloso, Randy McKay, and Bobby Holik would throw in a typical shift for the New Jersey Devils back in the day when hockey was on national TV.

What do you mean excuse after excuse? Look at his last five starts. His wins in the Hawthorne Gold Cup and Lone Star Park Handicap were sensational performances when he was up on screaming fast paces.

The defeat in the $1,000,000 race at Charles Town at 7/1 was a great performance. He broke from the 10-hole going a three-turn 9fs on a bullring and pressed a very strong pace and still ran extremely well.

The other two races - are his 2nd at Monmouth and 3rd today in the Clark. Both of them were similarly run races ... they featured painfully slow paces - and Redding Collery was rated off of the lead in both. RC had a very clean trip in the MTH drubbing .. today he didn't exactly have a clean trip.

He easily could've done that. The horse sitting 4th in the Haw Gold Cup was 13 lengths out after 6f...and he was an early speed horse. With a perfect pace setup, Giant Oak was a non-threatening 4 1/2 lengths behind RC at the 1/8th pole (the 1 1/8 mile point) of the Hawthorne Gold Cup. Giant Oak was a huge underlay in the Marathon due to bettors thinking he was flying. He wasn't. RC was just getting tired after setting too fast a pace.

We'll agree to disagree.

I just don't get excited by horses outrunning Awesome Gem and AU Miner. I think if he opened up a big lead he would have been finished farther back than he did. And ultimately I don't think he's much horse at all, Moss figs or not.

You can't just project what happens in one race onto another and say this is going to happen because it happened in another race. Don't you think riders ride a 9 furlong race a bit differently than a 10 furlong race? Closers are asked at different times, etc.