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Least & Most Vulnerable Favorites?
While I know some smart ass is going to comment that the fields haven't been officially posted yet (and we haven't even discussed the weather :eek: ), but I am sure we are all busy handicapping when we should be out Trick or Treating...which favorites in the Breeder's Cup do you see as being the least and most vulnerable?
(I fear this will become another Z thread :( ) |
Most Vulnerable
Zenyatta Rightly So Tell a Kelly Uncle Mo Workforce Girolamo I think just about every favorite is vulnerable. If I had to pick three that are least likely to lose, it'd probably be Winter Memories, Midday and either Goldikova or Giant Oak. |
Faves I don't like.
-Winter Memories -Uncle Mo -Blind Luck -Big Drama and Giarlomo -Zenyatta. The others don't say avoid or the faves will be near 5-1. |
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I can't possibly fathom someone leaving Winter Memories out of a Pick 4 completely. She's easily the most likely winner IMO, and even if you don't think so, if you get 3/4 because you left out a $6 horse, you really should be smacked.
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I think Midday is going to lose and she'll be 4-5.
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This says a lot about Giant Oak but even more about the silliness of the marathon as a division. Paul |
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Paul |
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Rightly So I agree, but Im not sure she will be favorite. Tell a Kelly totally agree, but is she going to be favorite over GOAT and Euro? Uncle Mo looks tough. Workforce looks really tough. Girolamo looks strong to me also. |
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Maybe Im reaching? Im just not thrilled at taking even money on a 2yr old american grass filly. Tale Untold is the one I dont like. I know we are not supposed to use turf beyers, but dident Allure D' Amour run almost the same race as Winter Memories? |
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If Giralamo goes off favored I think he is the most vulnerable favorite on the card on Saturday. I think I can make a case for pretty much anyone in the Sprint other than Pashito the Che and Wise Dan. I think whomever wins that race is going to have to have a bit of a rating gear and I am going to bet a little on Hamazing Destiny who has been pretty damn good when running over a fast strip at 6F with a reasonable break. If he can get that and run his "A" race he should be right there off his 107 figure at CD at 6F.
As for least vulnerable favorite on Saturday I don't really see any way that Workforce loses as long as he shows up with his normal races, except for the dud he threw in the King George, his Epsom Derby and Arc are just way too good, and in a P4 situation he is a stand horse for me. Goldikova is a close second but not first because although Paco Boy has never beaten her, he's been closer to her than the others have been to Workforce. As for horse who I think is the most likeliest winner on Saturday I would say it's Grand Adventure, who I think crushes if he runs back to his Nearctic or Connaught Cup. I think Frostad has found what he wants to do and that's sprint on the grass, he can run any way you ask him to and yeah he lost to Silver Timber last year but this year's Silver Timber has lost a step while this year's Grand Adventure has clearly improved big time. On Friday, I think the most vulnerable favorite is Winter Memories if she goes off at the odds most expect. In fact I think the Juvenile Fillies turf may the be the most open race on the entire card on Friday, and think it's a scramble with Allure D'Amour, Fancy Point, Flood Plain, Kathmanblu, More Than Real, New Normal, Quiet Oasis, Tale Untold, and Together all having races that are as good as Winter Memories. I have to say I like New Normal's progression and think her last was very, very good. I think the least vulnerable Friday favorite is Midday who's best race is probably too good for all in here, including Red Desire, and North America's best hope, which to me is Miss Keller who I will be using in both slots underneath Midday with various others. I just think if Midday shows up with her best, it's going to be awfully tough to beat her. To me Plumania is just ok, and our F&M Turf horses are just not very good to be quite frank. I think the most likeliest winner on Friday is obviously Midday but the decent priced horse who I think has the best upset chance on Friday is Secret Gypsy who fired a big shot the last time she went 7F at Churchill Downs and is in very good form coming in, and should sit a really nice trip in here off Rightly So and can power home in the stretch and make them come get her in a wide open renewal of the Filly and Mare Sprint. |
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Most vulnerable - Goldikova
Least vulnerable - Blind Luck |
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The Peruvian horse is interesting though. I read somewhere that he beat three year olds in his last start, which is pretty unusual! |
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She doesn't even have to move up off of that performance to win next Friday, if you ask me. She already proved she doesn't need a perfect trip to win. |
Least-
Uncle Mo Blind Luck Most- Zenyatta (way past vulnerable) Goldi (still the likely winner, just a tough looking race) |
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I'm comfortable with Quality Road as a solid fav .
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