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-   -   Paddy O to Classic O (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=38995)

tjfla 10-21-2010 08:03 PM

Paddy O to Classic O
 
http://www.desmoinesregister.com/art...s-richest-race


Love to see the odds on him.

NTamm1215 10-21-2010 08:12 PM

Great decision. He has an excellent chance to run last.

RockHardTen1985 10-21-2010 08:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NTamm1215 (Post 709695)
Great decision. He has an excellent chance to run last.

Bold.

hockey2315 10-21-2010 08:24 PM

He's obviously pretty unlikely to hit the board, but I can't really fault their reasoning. They better hope it pours.

RockHardTen1985 10-21-2010 08:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hockey2315 (Post 709699)
He's obviously pretty unlikely to hit the board, but I can't really fault their reasoning. They better hope it pours.

The reasson is like I said 4 days ago. He cant compete in the turf, so why not take a wild shot for a bigger purse?
It says so much about American Racing. He is 100% clearly our best 3yr old turf horse. Its really pathetic.

knickslions2 10-21-2010 08:32 PM

He has no shot in this race unless its a monsoon

Port Conway Lane 10-21-2010 08:48 PM

What is so great about him on a sloppy track ?

RockHardTen1985 10-21-2010 08:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Port Conway Lane (Post 709716)
What is so great about him on a sloppy track ?

LOL nothing... They are all making his plod run in the Derby into something.

the_fat_man 10-21-2010 08:58 PM

You're all forgetting the BIG ASS factor. Romans has the biggest ASS (luck) in racing this side of Nick Zito. Look at all the rail trips his winners got @ SAR.

Is it so far fetched that:

a) it rains torrentially
b) a few horses go down in the race
c) those that stay up get ridiculously wide trips
d) POP skims the rail and wins going away

stranger things have happened and I'd think twice before dismissing ASS LUCK the size of Romans' :rolleyes:

knickslions2 10-21-2010 09:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985 (Post 709717)
LOL nothing... They are all making his plod run in the Derby into something.

Now now look at him again and you'll see he is good in the slop.

dalakhani 10-21-2010 09:32 PM

Why can't he hit the board? He loves the track and he has improved since the last time he ran on it.

RockHardTen1985 10-21-2010 09:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by knickslions2 (Post 709722)
Now now look at him again and you'll see he is good in the slop.

I know, that 1 race makes him good. Kinda like MTB good, right?

Port Conway Lane 10-21-2010 09:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dalakhani (Post 709725)
Why can't he hit the board? He loves the track and he has improved since the last time he ran on it.

I'm not so sure there is any evidence he loves the track or the slop. Both starts at Churchill were in the slop and the one out of the money was his debut sprinting.
He most definitely has improved.

The Indomitable DrugS 10-21-2010 09:58 PM

PoP has no shot in a totally wide open and sub-par edition of the BC Classic.

He would be better served in the Turf mile - the Turf - or the Dirt Mile.

His big turn move in the Derby came in a 27.07 fourth 1/4 mile - it was an optical illusion. Maybe not as much of an optical illusion as Ice Box and Make Music For Me's big late moves through a 52.87 last half mile ... but still. He showed his true dirt colors in the Preakness.

The 2010 Kentucky Derby basically consisted of two races. An absolutely strong dash to the half mile pole in brilliant time over a slower than par track .. and a sinking ship final half mile of pure stagger.

The top five finishers after 6fs were:
1. Conveyance
2. Sidney's Candy
3. Noble's Promise
4. Super Saver
5. Discreetly Mine

Just pretend the last half mile of that race never even happened and everyone would be better off for it.

Make Music For Me went from 20th beaten 24 lengths after six furlongs - to 4th beaten 4.75 lengths at the wire. If that POS can make up 19.25 lengths in the final half mile .. you know the pace fig wasn't lying. That horse had never been more than 5 lengths off of the early pace in his career - and Rosario had him 24.75 lengths back and in last after just a quarter mile. Really smart ride as it played out.

Travis Stone 10-21-2010 10:27 PM

I don't blame them. I won't bet him, but I don't blame them... and I'm pleased to get another body in the race to help juice those exotics if some fun stuff happens.

RockHardTen1985 10-21-2010 10:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS (Post 709734)
PoP has no shot in a totally wide open and sub-par edition of the BC Classic.

He would be better served in the Turf mile - the Turf - or the Dirt Mile.

His big turn move in the Derby came in a 27.07 fourth 1/4 mile - it was an optical illusion. Maybe not as much of an optical illusion as Ice Box and Make Music For Me's big late moves through a 52.87 last half mile ... but still. He showed his true dirt colors in the Preakness.

The 2010 Kentucky Derby basically consisted of two races. An absolutely strong dash to the half mile pole in brilliant time over a slower than par track .. and a sinking ship final half mile of pure stagger.

The top five finishers after 6fs were:
1. Conveyance
2. Sidney's Candy
3. Noble's Promise
4. Super Saver
5. Discreetly Mine

Just pretend the last half mile of that race never even happened and everyone would be better off for it.

Make Music For Me went from 20th beaten 24 lengths after six furlongs - to 4th beaten 4.75 lengths at the wire. If that POS can make up 19.25 lengths in the final half mile .. you know the pace fig wasn't lying. That horse had never been more than 5 lengths off of the early pace in his career - and Rosario had him 24.75 lengths back and in last after just a quarter mile. Really smart ride as it played out.

When you speak people listen.

Cannon Shell 10-21-2010 10:30 PM

That Zenyatta is sure scaring them off. Guys are lining up to run turf horses against her...

Personally I think drugs is right. The dirt mile is hardly a stellar field and he would have a big shot on the cutback. I still can't believe musket man isnt running in the mile. That race was made for horses like him.

Coach Pants 10-21-2010 10:55 PM

Doubt it rains. It's drier than Ann Moss' hoo ha here.

Indian Charlie 10-21-2010 10:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985 (Post 709701)
The reasson is like I said 4 days ago. He cant compete in the turf, so why not take a wild shot for a bigger purse?
It says so much about American Racing. He is 100% clearly our best 3yr old turf horse. Its really pathetic.

He clearly is not our best 3yo turf horse.

Or, better put, it's not clear at all he's our best 3yo turf horse.

Indian Charlie 10-21-2010 11:03 PM

I don't know. I think it is conceivable that Ploddy slow Ploddo could have cashed a check in the Turf race.

I don't see him finishing in the top 5-6 in the Classic. Though I guess we should wait to see the actual field.

RockHardTen1985 10-21-2010 11:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie (Post 709753)
He clearly is not our best 3yo turf horse.

Or, better put, it's not clear at all he's our best 3yo turf horse.

LOLOLOL... I hate POP, been clear about it. Who is even close to him?

Coach Pants 10-21-2010 11:11 PM

no One. Nunya First Said It Dur

Indian Charlie 10-21-2010 11:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985 (Post 709756)
LOLOLOL... I hate POP, been clear about it. Who is even close to him?

Potentially, either of the two Sadler candy horses.

Certainly at 9f or less, Sidney's Candy would destroy Ploddy so Slowdo.

Dahoss 10-21-2010 11:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie (Post 709760)
Potentially, either of the two Sadler candy horses.

Certainly at 9f or less, Sidney's Candy would destroy Ploddy so Slowdo.

I don't think Paddy O Prado is much either. But, at the same time, I'm sort of surprised at how Sidney's Candy has become such a revered turf horse based on one race where he beat nothing.

I know you aren't really saying it, but I've seen it on boards for the last few weeks. I've even seen some that like him in the Mile. I'd like to see him run another good race on turf before crowning him yet and going into the mile without a prep doesn't bode well for him IMO.

Indian Charlie 10-22-2010 12:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dahoss (Post 709764)
I don't think Paddy O Prado is much either. But, at the same time, I'm sort of surprised at how Sidney's Candy has become such a revered turf horse based on one race where he beat nothing.

I know you aren't really saying it, but I've seen it on boards for the last few weeks. I've even seen some that like him in the Mile. I'd like to see him run another good race on turf before crowning him yet and going into the mile without a prep doesn't bode well for him IMO.

I'm just saying that it really isn't much of a stretch to say that SC might be the better turf horse. Yeah, he beat nothing, but you can say that about Ploddy el Slowmo too.

And, unlike with el Slowmo, SC might be an awesome horse on turf. He certainly has more upside to him.

I agree on the lack of prep. Something smells fishy there.

The mile is by miles the most interesting race on the card.

The Indomitable DrugS 10-22-2010 05:37 AM

Paddy O' Prado is a very respectable horse as far as 3yo North American turf males go relative to what we've seen in that division since the days of Kitten's Joy and Artie Schiller.

knickslions2 10-22-2010 07:34 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985 (Post 709727)
I know, that 1 race makes him good. Kinda like MTB good, right?

Look deeper my friend

randallscott35 10-22-2010 07:39 AM

Since I'm not impressed with the Classic division I think this is the right decision.

hockey2315 10-22-2010 07:44 AM

Pretty sure they're paying more for SC than was offered for Paddy. . . Not sure either are worth it.

Hossy - I'm probably one of the people you had in mind w/ the SC thing. It's not that I think he's a good bet in the mile (he can't super high, right?), but the chance of him freaking or just being that good and beating the chalk if she's off her game seems more likely than Paco Boy beating her. Have to do more homework, though.

Sightseek 10-22-2010 08:55 AM

I actually like the decision.

tjfla 10-22-2010 08:56 AM

I liked the part that said he WILL have a 4 yr old campaign.

Anyone wanna take a stab at his odds?

Smooth Operator 10-22-2010 09:33 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS (Post 709787)
Paddy O' Prado is a very respectable horse as far as 3yo North American turf males go relative to what we've seen in that division since the days of Kitten's Joy and Artie Schiller.


Disgraceful that this country can't consistently produce turfers which can compete with the Euros


We're hell at churning out distance-challenged dirt speedballs, tho.............

NTamm1215 10-22-2010 09:47 AM

There are about 8-9 probables in the Breeders' Cup Turf. Does Paddy O' Prado have a very good chance against horses like Behkabad or Workforce? Not really, but to say that he has "no chance" or doesn't stack up even in a small way is foolish.

His Preakness is a much better indication of his dirt ability than his Derby in my opinion and this decision is foolish. I'll be absolutely stunned if he's in the superfecta.

randallscott35 10-22-2010 09:50 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NTamm1215 (Post 709838)
There are about 8-9 probables in the Breeders' Cup Turf. Does Paddy O' Prado have a very good chance against horses like Behkabad or Workforce? Not really, but to say that he has "no chance" or doesn't stack up even in a small way is foolish.

His Preakness is a much better indication of his dirt ability than his Derby in my opinion and this decision is foolish. I'll be absolutely stunned if he's in the superfecta.

5 million reasons, I agree he has no chance but damned if the Classic doesn't look like a Grade 2 this year.

hoovesupsideyourhead 10-22-2010 10:05 AM

top royelle in her day would crush them all

geeker2 10-22-2010 10:12 AM

Dale was on ATR

Sounded like he would be happy with a 2nd or 3rd as it would help his post racing career. He didn't sound like 1st was that realistic. Said he thought winning the Turf race would not do that much for his stallion fees...but a good effort in the Classic would.

randallscott35 10-22-2010 10:14 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by geeker2 (Post 709853)
Dale was on ATR

Sounded like he would be happy with a 2nd or 3rd as it would help his post racing career. He didn't sound like 1st was that realistic. Said he thought winning the Turf race would not do that much for his stallion fees...but a good effort in the Classic would.

Not unlike his handshake deal with Frankel at Lonestar to follow Zapper around the track and collect for second.

NTamm1215 10-22-2010 10:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by randallscott35 (Post 709854)
Not unlike his handshake deal with Frankel at Lonestar to follow Zapper around the track and collect for second.

Does your comedy act travel?

randallscott35 10-22-2010 10:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NTamm1215 (Post 709855)
Does your comedy act travel?

Do you have a memory? This is not news.

NTamm1215 10-22-2010 10:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by randallscott35 (Post 709856)
Do you have a memory? This is not news.

I have absolutely no idea what you're talking about. Was this story posted in the Enquirer?


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