Odds Bernardini Races As A 4 Year Old?
 

I would put this at somewhere in the 30% range at this moment. My fingers are crossed b/c I think he is the kind of horse who could really have a big following if he continues progressing. Plus, I think racing as a 4 year old is important to a horse's place in history. It matters.

I really dont know!

If he were owned by anyone other than the richest men in the world. 0%

Since he's owned by the bottomless money pit that is Darley. 35%-40%

Maybe in Dubai, but I wonder if that's it, whether he doesn't return to the land of his birth to race again.

I have confidence that he will run next year unless he is injured.

1) Darley doesn't need stud money
2) Darley can afford to keep racing him
3) They want to show the world how great this horse is
4) I believe that Darley will do whatever it takes to make him one of the greatest, and yes, that means racing him at four
5) Darley loves to see their horses winning races, especially Grade Is
6) As Da Hoss stated, "Dubai World Cup"

I'll put him in the 50% range because anything can happen.

Oh, I hope you are wrong - I think the odds are much higher than that. I think the Sheikh is so proud of this horse in particular (as he is a homebred Classic winner) and he's getting such a kick out of Bernardini's races that he will definitely run next year. He knows this colt might become truly great and wouldn't he want to own that kind of horse? I will say this - if Bernardini is retired, I will be extremely disillusioned. I have to admit that I would be bitter and I'm not sure how I could enjoy racing in 2007.

There is no doubt in my mind they will take a stab at the Dubai World Cup on their home turf next March and maybe then call it a career.

maybe about $20 million to one....

rich people like more money just as much as anyone.

it's not about the money, it's also about darley @ jonabell. torn down and completely rebuilt according to what the sheik wanted. who better to be showcased there, than his first classic race winner???

The Dubai World Cup resonates with me insofar as Bern goes.

Darley doesn't need stud money

A lot of people who dont need money breed their horses as early as possible. Its called greed my man. Greed. Some people with absolutely no lives and fulfilling human relationships, but have tons of money like to keep it coming and coming.

naaah. the sheik can win that with someone else...funny isn't it that when the top three were mentioned the other day, no electrocutionist....

checking....
didn't he finish behind david junior recently?? not too far back....

darn, can't remember them all, every race! getting old i guess!

At least we wont have to suffer through a goofy celebratory dance when Bernardini wins the Dubai cup. That was unbearable.

whole lotta difference between WANT and NEED. i'm telling ya, darley is the key. yeah, he's got elusive quality and quiet american....but there's no classic winner there, two that produced a classic winner....but bernardini is his own. he'll be like a proud papa...or grandpapa!

nope, second to hurricane run in late july.

as of august 10, electrocutionist was the top ranked dirt horse.

but i doubt he comes to the bcc. not to face off against bernardini!

the arc maybe??

I would expect him to race again, if he is healthy. I would also expect that with his breeding they will give him a chance to win a big turf race.

really??? i don't see it, the turf race i mean. if that guy is going to be his big star at the farm, i don't see that he'd really push for any turf, he knows dirt's king here.

hell, i hope not. may he run at four. from the big cap out west, to the met mile and than maybe the arlington million and cap it off with the bc sprint. what the hell, cover all the bases!!

i guess we'll see.

I think they will race him at 4,as they love race competition.
As long as he is sound and still winning

Electrocutionist is hurt. Story broke on DRF a few weeks back. Connections still want BCC for Electro as do David Junior's...

The horse has some risk factors for early injury; the question may be whether he can race next year.

I am with Oracle, I really dont know. If he does race as a 4 year old then I doubt we will see him after the Dubai World Cup.

I don't think that makes much sense - isn't the World Cup in March? They'd spend all that time preparing him for one race and then, after it's over, Bernardini would need time to let down...........not much time for him to acclimate to a completely new lifestyle before taking up stud duties. I don't like it.

I see absolutely no benefit to the Sheikh retiring Bernardini after this year; he really shouldn't be afraid of his colt suffering injuries on the track. Of course it can happen, but look what happened to St. Liam. Horses are fragile no matter whether they are on the track or at stud. If he's the sportsman I think, he'll run Bernardini next year - this could be a truly great horse. I'd like to think that the Sheikh would want to see his own homebred acclaimed an all-time champion......how proud he is already, can you imagine what it would be like next year? Fans would flock to the track to see Bernardini; he's already immensely popular. If for no other reason than ego, the Sheikh should run his colt.

ok, thanks for the heads up!

Have to say that if anyone has the money and brass to race a horse like this at age 4, its Sheikh Mo.
Its not like he needs the breeding money, and besides that he would just stand him at Darley, syndication is not in his future.
Sheikh Mo also is a sportsman and truly loves the game, hes the kinda guy who would race him at age 4 to showcase him. Only possible problem is that horses who go over there for the Dubai Cup have yet to return the same horse they were before. Thats the only monkey wrench I see in the works.
But I also hope he runs at age 4.

I was thinking about the Dubai WC after the weekend events. I'd love to see Bernardini, Discreet Cat, and Invasor go toe to toe next spring in Dubai. I just can't buy into these guys sending a healthy horse at the top of his game out to stud before he has a chance to prove his greatness. A couple of you have mentioned stud fees and the desire to keep money coming in. I speculate that Sheik Mohammed makes more on an average day than Bernardini could bring in during a good year in the barn. Sure he's a valuable asset there, but he's just a drop in the bucket of oil.

Invasor is kinda breaking that trend a little but if I recall, he didn't race here yet, or he only had one race here at Gulfstream, can't remember

I don't think Bernardini will ever have a big following outside the racing world, mostly because of his owners. I mean, where's the great story there? Sheikhs buy blueblood stock and the horse is pretty good. That doesn't capture anybody's imagination.

Agree with Oracle80 on each point of his post

Only reason I do not see him as a 4yr old is injury.And we have had
enough of of those this year

I would say that what happened to St. Liam was more rare than an injury on the track. We have come to expect injuries on the track, but I don't think that anyone would have ever thought they would see something like that happen to St. Liam. I agree with you though about Bernardini racing as a 4 year old. I think that if he is sound, they'll run him.

Seems like it's been a crazy year even in the stallion biz, right? The altercation with the two stallions up in NY, and heck, Jambalaya Jazz was killed by lightning earlier this year!

If I remember right . The Jacksons mentioned that if Barbaro was succsful in the TC, the Arc was a posibility. Wonder if Euro racing fits into any plans of the Sheik as far as producing a truely "super horse" with super accomplishments?

I thought Bernardini would run in the Belmont, but he did not. Now I think he will run as a four-year-old. I hope I am right this time.

Well, that's true, Cajungator. Still, the Sheikh strikes me (as he does most of us, I think) as someone who understands the risks involved in racing but is willing to take them to enjoy the great rewards that come with owning a horse like Bernardini.

One thing I found funny in Steve Davidowitz' article in DRF: he thinks that Invasor and Bernardini are heading for a showdown in the Gold Cup so that the Sheikhs can decide who to point for the Classic. IMO, that's nonsense. They are both East Coast horses and this race is the logical stepping stone; both horses, if healthy, will be running in the Classic.

An excellent point. I would say that the racing world does matter to me, so a following even in that realm would be something....Heck, Cigar won all the time and he didn't develop the kind of following you would expect.

Bernardini will never be as popular as Cigar even in the American horse racing world for a variety of reasons. First, he won't win 16 races in a row. Second, again, he's owned by a Sheikh. I realize Sheikh "mo" as some like to call him is practically American, but still, it's not like the Chapmans or Sackatoga or the Cash is King gang. Those three horses I just mentioned are probably the three most popular horses among the general public in the last ten years, and it was 100 percent because the average joe could probably identify with the underdog story.

I think it could be different this time. Bernardini is potentially capable of accomplishing more than Smarty Jones, Funny Cide, or Afleet Alex. He is being compared to the greatest of all-time; that is premature, but it could be the case. He reminds me of Spectacular Bid. I never thought that about the other horses just mentioned . In my mind, he is from another place and could be truly great. True, this is just my opinion, but I have not felt this way about a horse since The Bid.

Who is comparing him to the greatest of all time? He's no Spectacular Bid, at least not in my book. That's just crazy talk.

I think the Dubai guys have shown over the years their love for racing, if Bernardini is sound they will race him, there is no syndication to worry about. This isn't the Coolmore people who would be sending out 200 breeding contracts the second after he crossed the wire in the Travers.