Spa jockey/agent title race
 

Insiders will tell you that the "jockey title" race at the Spa is as much about the agents as it is the riders.
Johnny and Angel no longer care about titles in even the most vague way, they realize its a money game and Johnny has already won titles and set records up here. They also realize that riding first call for Todd leaves them up against it to get catch mounts.
So its come down to the two very best agents in the business, with no love lost between them, going for the title.
At the start of the meet I posted here that I made Edgar Prado 3-5 to win it and now I wold go as far as to take 1-2 if I could get a line on it.
Bob Frieze is the man who engineered Jerry Bailey's incredible meteoric rise from journeyman to eclipse award record setting rider. Dumped by Bailey for Gomez' current agent Ron Anderson, Frieze worked like a man obsessed and beat bailey and Anderson for the title with his then new rider Prado a few years back.
No love lost between them and now its carried over into Frieze/Prado vs Gomez/Anderson.
Anderson is a great agent regarded by most as the bets agent. he does an incredible job getting his riders on big money mounts in stakes races. But Frieze is no slouch himself. A totally different guy than Anderson, he always has a gameface on and is the best I ever saw at picking up live catch mounts. By this I mean snaring mounts in allowances, maidens, and claiming races that he hasn't been riding. He has almost a sixth sense of what horse is sitting on a win in what condition and noone alive has a better record of choosing between two live mounts for his jockey and picking the right one.
Frieze will work tirelessly between now and the final entries taken on saturday for Monday's card to win the title and he will prevail. Even after entries are closed he will make sure if a rider on a live mount is injured and they need a replacement, that he is the first guy to call and get the mount.
Make no mistake about it, insiders know that this race the last week is a clash of the agent titans, and the smart money is on Frieze to prevail. He'll pull out all the stops and put Edgar on live horses in claiming races as well as the others.

Lets take a look at the only 2 contender's for the jockey title mounts with morning lines for Wed:

Prado
1- Defrizz 9/5 (needs help drawing in from also eligibles)
2- Maven 8/1
4- Trust Nobody 3/1
5- Tall Story 9/2 (Hails from the barn of Tommy "if his names not Bernardini he cant win" Albertrani)
6- British Attitude 10/1
7- Ferocious Fires 7/2 (Ole Dutrow)
8- Changeisgonnacome 6/1
9- Hunting Hillbilly 6/1 (needs help drawing in from also eligibles)

Gomez
3- Babyifurgoodtogo 7/2
4- Market Psychology 9/2 (Violette)
5- Trueheart 8/1
6- Ever a Friend 7/2 (Golf Pro Kev says hes better suited for dirt, may get his wish)
7- Trading Pro 4/1 (Violette again)

As has been the case the whole meet, Prado will get a few more mounts than his rival Gomez. I'm very surprised there is even a race at this point. Prado should have him by 7 or 8 with the number of mounts he rides.

This is funny. If it was Frieze/Gomez v Anderson/Prado you would be on here touting Anderson. You are so predictable Oracle. And look at the number of mounts between Prado and Gomez. Prado has 25 more mounts than Gomez. Give Gomez the same amount of mounts and he is leading by 5-7 wins. Now for Angel/Velasquez you better believe they care about titles. Titles = money and anyone who believes differently is crazy. Johnny is $120k behind Gomez and $150k or so behind Prado. Still dang good but they are finding out that Johnny V isnt all he is cracked up to be. And trainers are starting to realize the same. But good try on spinning all this Oracle. Very very good try.

It's not as if JV jas been on a light schedule. He has more mounts than Gomez. JV has 24 wins from 156 mounts. He is riding 15% winners. Gomez has 29 wins from 144 mounts. He is riding 20% winners.

You're argument is the famous "tails I win, heads you lose argument". If JV would have beaten Gomez, you'd say that it proves that JV is better than Gomez. But if Gomez beats JV, then it's because of their agents.

Gomez is riding better than anyone right now and everybody who has been watching knows that. Gomez gets more out of a horse than Prado or JV. Gomez has a higher win percentage than Prado which is pretty amazing considering that Prado gets much better mounts.

Gomez' in the money percentage is the best by far. His in the money percenatge is 52%. Prado is in 2nd at 47% and JV is in 3rd at 46%. Gomez will often times be on the 4th or 5th best horse in the race and by giving the perfect ride he will somehow get up for 2nd or 3rd.

I'm too lazy to do the work, but I'd be curious what the median odds have been for Gomez' horses this meet compared to Prado. Median is a much fairer measure than average because one longshot could throw a guy's average way off. In other words, if a guy had 3 mounts for the day and the horses went off at 1-1, 2-1, and 21-1, the average odds of his horses would be 8-1 whereas the median would be 2-1. The median is a fairer representation.

Anyway, I think Prado gets much better mounts than Gomez yet Gomez still has a higher win percentage.

I'm going to steal you word and say that I've enjoyed watching Gomez "school" these guys.

What is even more funny is that Johnny V may fall behind an apprentice this meet. Very doubtful but only 1 win seperates the two.

Gomez had some very cagey rides yesterday. He rode Judy Soda very smartly on the front end. Then he rode Wynsome Wesley (a horse that was most likely "not trying" first time out behind a runaway winner very well resisting the urge to move too quickly. Anybody could have ridden his 3rd winner of the day whatdreamsaremadeof.

As they say in Harvard, Garret is doing "more with less" this year at Saratoga.

Your math is actually not correct. Gomez is winning at a 20% clip. If he had 25 more mounts, you would expect that would give him another 5 winners. That would give him a 2 win lead over Prado.

He is actually 3 wins behind Prado right now. I forgot to include yesterday's results.

I'm just very thankful Garret didnt win the last race :D
His mount Continuity scared me a bit and "a little birdie" said that horse would be very tough to beat.

Its you two novices who are doing the spinning, not me.
Richi, johnny/Angel are forced to ride all the Pletchers, he can rarely if ever get permission not to. The other two aren't pinned down. Now you can argue that gives johnny some automatic wins, and it does. But it costs Angel the chance to spin to live mounts. In addition, you will note his catch rides are most often for dead barns. the live ones go to Prado because they know he might ride the horse back, whereas Angel always has to tell everyone that he can ride back unles Todd runs something in there.
In terms of number of races won, Prado will always beat Johnny at any meet, not just this one.
And richi, you are insane if you think Gomez hasnt been riding chalk. Look at yesterday!! 4-5, 3-2, and 2-1 were his winners, so you are either a liar or unobservant.
Euro- Anderson is a better agent perhaps at securing stakes mounts, but in everyday competition Frieze is the King. Not known as a particularly warm and fuzzy guy, he always has the edge and thinks three steps ahead.

Trust me, richi, Frieze will always get his rider more mounts than anyone else.
Hes the best pure condition book reading/knowing who is eligible and ready to win in that spot guy at the track. Ask anyone who knows Ny racing on the inside.
And I know you are smart enough to see why Angel/Johnny won't win any riding titles at any track anytime soon, if ever. Todd is about a 21% trainer in Ny. And johnny rides most of em. But if you peruse the DRF here ona daily basis you will see he longer rides often or at all for:Dutrow, Violette, Mott, McGaughey, Levine,Zito, Contessa, or Asmussen. Its hard to deal with the situation. You use him on a maiden and he wins impressively and you need to get a new rider next time out most of the time, because he will spin you for Pletcher.

Did everyone forget Velazquez had a serious injury in late April? Rushed back in early June. Do you honestly expect him to be back to normal by now? I think he's doing outstanding considering the injuries he suffered.

Of course Gomez rides some chalk. They all do. I'm not interested if he rode chalk yesterday. I'm interested in the median price of his horses for the meet. That's all that matters. It doesn't matter whether he rode chalk yesterday or over the weekend. I'm interested in how much chalk he rode for the meet out of his 144 mounts.

That has ZERo effect. He is 100% healed.

Exactly, and you also have to hand it more to Anderson because Prado is in his own backyard, he has a well established client base dating back for years, Gomez is stepping in as the new guy on the block, who thinks Prado would have been anywhere near Gomez at Del Mar? I say Garrett Gomez deserves a big round of applause for being schooled so badly by the East Coast superior riders, ( I love JV's excuse) lol!!! Its sure never stopped Bailey from racking up meet titles at the Spa!!!!

You have to also have ti factor in the number of mounts each is going to have at the end of the year. Prado will have many more mounts than Gomez. Predicting the difference then factoring in the win % will give you about 7-9 more wins for Gomez. Therefore giving him a 5-7 lead in wins. You have to look into the future my friend.

Sure thing, doc.

Velasquez is the one who said that is 100%

Of course he's going to say that.

Do you actually believe he is the same rider he was before the injury? Please tell me you do because the stats say otherwise. Obviously the guy is not 100% right now. But he will be and i'll flat out say that he'll repeat as top jock at Gulfstream this winter.

He sure looks 100% to me. But he simply doesnt get the mounts on a daily basis to compete for a win title. Now if you want to accuse me of redboarding i can show you the post i made before the meet began in which i stated that Prado was 3-5 to win the title in my mind. Its there, look it up.
If hes riding so badly then explain to me all the bad rides hes given and cite examples. hes not. just because the public bets a Pletcher horse down doesnt give it a shot. His catch mounts are just awful and I dont really think he or Angel care. They are all about the money.

You are bad with stats, Gomez is 1% higher than prado at the meet, thats it.

If Gomez rides at a 20% clip, he would have 2 more wins than Prado right now if he had the same number of mounts as Prado. This isn't rocket science. If Prado has 25 more mounts than Gomez and Gomez rides at a 20% clip, that means an additional 25 mounts would give him an addtional 5 wins.

If you are saying that Gomez would have a 5-7 win lead if he had as many mounts as Prado, that means that you would be expecting Gomez to win 8-10 races from an additional 25 mounts. That's not realistic. It could happen, but that's not what a statistician would predict. A statistician would predict that Gomez would get about 5 wins for every 25 mounts. He is riding at a 20% clip. 5/25=20%.

That is correct.

Gomez has really cut into John's business due to the injury. Maybe i'm wrong and he is 100% physically and mentally.

If John didn't suffer the injury the goo goo ga ga over Gomez would probably be about his meet at Del Mar.

Rup thats not to mention the fact that if Anderson could have ridden 25 more then he would have. Frieze knows that the more mounts he gets the more races he wins. Thast not rocket science either. You are kind of proving my point about the two agents. Frieze' strength is that hes best day to day hustler of a jock i ever saw. People forget that he was the one who made the bailey dynasty happen.

If John didn't suffer the injury the goo goo ga ga over Gomez would probably be about his meet at Del Mar

It was well documented by many on here that this wouldnt or couldnt happen. That as soon as he got healthy, Gomez would be out of here! Cmmon get real, stop making excuses for John V. Hes just not winning his usual amount of races. Deal with it. Maybe he'll have a way better Belmont meet and maybe if hes lucky Garrett will go back to the sunny California shore.

By the way the reason Kent D failed to win a race yesterday was he was involved in a car accident on Saturday night and still sore. You want excuses, I have some too.

Noone has cut into Johnny's business except johnny and Angel.
I know most won't understand what i am saying but I will try again. trainers like to ride a guy on a horse, especially a good one, that they think the jock will ride back. In Johnny's case its almost impossible for Angel to promise that. he has to ride for Todd, thats part of the deal. So he cant commit to a horse past one race for another trainer,
he got henny Hughes because todd didnt have a horse running in the Kings Bishop, doesnt have one pointing towards the Vosburgh, and doesnt have one pointing at the BC sprint. Therefore Angel was able to give Kiarin a three race committment. I know for a fact from Coa's agent who is afriend of mine that he was the other guy being considered. If Angel had not been able to give a three race committment with Todd's blessing, Coa would haev ridden him on saturday.
But in most cases Angel can't give anything more than a one race committment, and thats always gonna cost you. Trainers have huge egos and hate being second fiddle.

The agents can definitely make a difference. The agents are certainly a factor. I'm not denying that.

But the best jocks usually end up with the best agents.

Tim don't you get it. he won't have a "way better meet' at belmont. His meets depend upon Todd's success. he doesnt want Angel naming him on cheap claimers, and rides very few. And if hes riding so bad why can't just one guy here name soem bad rides he gave. Other than Vig, I can't think of any case where he cost a horse a win.

Of course that is a factor. If a trainer has a good horse like Henny, he's going to want a committment from a jock.

When you ride first call for a guy, there are definitely some negatives. But overall, riding first call for Pletcher is a huge positive. It got JV $20 million in purses last year and an Eclipse award. It usually pretty much guarantees him that he will be on at least 20% winners for Pletcher because Pletcher's win percenatge is always over 20%.

I'm already over it. The only reason why I responded because it seems like everyday there is a Gomez thread and Velazquez is getting slammed in it. Rest assured when Gomez has a dry spell I won't come on here and make a bunch of posts just to get under a Gomez fans skin. I know Gomez is a great rider. Even the best have a cold streak. But you would think by reading the posts about John V. is that he's somehow less of a rider than Gomez and Prado and that is simply not the case.

You know John is great when there is a thread about him because of a cold streak. If threads were made for every jockey in the top 100 who has a cold streak the site would probably slow to a crawl due to all of the bandwidth being used up.

Rupert OF COURSE thats the point, I agree 100%. The deal they have made with todd virtually gurantees them a million-2 million a year in income. In addition there is more to it than you may know! Angel is still considered the best exercise rider around here. Hes still magic on a horse. By giving thjem this deal it frees Angel from having to hustle mounts in the morning and as a result he exercises for todd all morning.
Its the perfect business deal for everyone involved. Its guranteed income for Angel and johnny and Todd is guranteed Johnny on his horses in the afternoon and Angel on his horses in the morning.
All I'm saying is that its unrealistic to expect them to ever win a title again as far as most wins go. Angel can't hustle catch mounts, nor does he want to, lol. He gets to do whathe loves each morning and make a ton of cash each year.

UUGGHH--someone help me here. You have to take into account the end result of the difference in mounts at the end of the meet. At the end of the meet Prado could have 35 more mounts that Gomez. That is 7 more wins. Giving Gomez a 5 race lead. Jeses Rupert--do you understand now. The 25 mount difference isnt going to he held constant throughout the meet.

JV's win percenatge is still way down this meet. He usually does better than 15% winners.

By the way, didn't JV have the most wins at some meets last year? I thought he was leading rider quite often in terms of wins the last few years in New York.

He wasnt last year. They cut back on riding claimers and cheaper horses. His percentage is down because Todd's is down and if you go back and look at the charts you will see him not riding for one powerful stable other than Todd's. His catch mounts are dreadful. I bet if you took his average odds on horses other than Todds you would find them to be quite high for a rider of his magnitude. But richi you have to understand, LOL!!!, in the morning the other agents are seen are all over the backsides in their golf carts hitting each barn like salesman on a route trying to get mounts. Then you see Angel come out with this red flak vest on another pletcher mount and breeze 5/8th's on Flower Alley! LOL!!

That isnt the stat we are viewing Oracle--you are funny. That stat is based on the number of mounts vs number of wins. We are assuming that Gomez is riding at 20% clip based on his number of mounts. If you have him 25 more mounts (equals Prado) then he will have 5 more wins like Rupert has said. That would give him a 2 race lead. But what you have to take into account is the Prado will have more than 25 more mounts than Gomez. I predict that he will end up having 33-36 more mounts.

Thats where YOU are funny. I made the premise that Frieze was better at day to day hustling than anyone else, and you scoffed at it.

What you're saying doesn't make any sense. You say that the mount difference will not be constant and you are correct about that. But neither will the win difference. As of right now, these two jocks have pretty much the same win percentage. If two guys have the same win percentage, that means they will have an equal number of winners if they have the same number of mounts. That is the reason we look at win percentage. If one guy has 60 wins from 300 mounts, and another guy has 40 wins from 200 mounts, what conclusion would you draw? I would conclude that they are both riding at a 20% clip and if they had an eual number of mounts they would have the same number of wins.

What is so confusing about that?

I didnt scoff at that fact. In fact, I dont think I disagreed with you either. I just said you would be touting Anderson/Prado before you would Frieze/Gomez.

Thats where you are wrong. If Gomez had frieze even three behind as he is now, I'd still bet Frieze. Nice to know you actually are a sick enough guy to think you know my thoughts better than me, lol.