Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985 (Post 681670)

Saturday

8th (4:42)

6 Furlongs | Open | 2 Year Olds Maiden Special Weight | Purse: $50,000


Post # Horse Jockey Weight Claim Price Equip. Med.
1 Heisman Cohen D 119 FTL
2 Magnet Cove Castellano J J 119 FTL
3 Washington's Rules Desormeaux K J 119
4 Rock Hard Nicky Borel C H 119 FTL
5 Orsonian Gomez G K 119 FTL
6 Brock Albarado R J 119 FTL
7 Call the Ball Lenclud F 114 FTL
8 Fair Whit Maragh R 119 FTL
9 Eltheeb Garcia Alan 119 FTL
10 Derivative Mena M 119 Blk-On L
11 Stay Thirsty Velazquez J R 119 L

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin (Post 681810)

The $2.3 million horse from Fasig Tipton Calder is in there. His name is Brock.

Originally Posted by freddymo (Post 681814)

looks like a jogburger for the 11.. Whats so good about it? Other then the Ralph Nicks Officer colt who figures to be a likely FTS that could win here?

The Pletcher has zero shot
The Ice Aptitude zero shot
Maybe the Roman Ruler for McPeek can run a little
Zito and a Rock hard Ten going 6 zero shot
Ass/Jess could be OK but will be way overbet
Call The Ball has two great works especially for a Vindy but who would be a Vindy going 6 FTS?
The Birdstone could be ok but never first out and the The Berny doesnt want to sprint

7/5 on the 11 will be stealing

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin (Post 681818)

Heisman is a full brother to Any Given Saturday. Why would he have no chance?

Originally Posted by freddymo (Post 681815)

Half to a turf miler whoopie

Originally Posted by freddymo (Post 681820)

Cohen and the rail? You think JR would be listed if Pletcher told him he was the goods.. Plus the rail is almost a auto toss with Mdn 2 year olds IMO

Originally Posted by freddymo (Post 681820)

Cohen and the rail? You think JR would be listed if Pletcher told him he was the goods.. Plus the rail is almost a auto toss with Mdn 2 year olds IMO

Originally Posted by Betsy (Post 681832)

I LOVE Stay Thirsty, but he's got an awful post.....He ran very well in his debut and he should improve..

Originally Posted by freddymo (Post 681820)

Cohen and the rail? You think JR would be listed if Pletcher told him he was the goods.. Plus the rail is almost a auto toss with Mdn 2 year olds IMO

Originally Posted by NTamm1215 (Post 681833)

What's so awful about that post?

NT

Originally Posted by Betsy (Post 681849)

I just assumed the far outside post is the worst; I wouldn't mind being wrong. It's better than being on the inside.

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin (Post 681828)

No, absolutely not. JV already rode the other horse and he ran 2nd. I would bet money that he was not offered the mount on the first-timer in this race. That would be the kind of thing that would not go over well for a trainer when he is trying to keep two separate owners happy. It would be one thing if both horses had run and JV had ridden both of them. Then he would have to choose between the two. But in a case where he's already ridden the one horse and the horse ran well, he's not going to be offered the mount on the other horse.

By the way, last week there was a MSW at Saratoga and Pletcher had two first-timers. JV was on one and Cohen was on the other. Simon Bray was handicapping the race on TVG and commented that he was only using the JV horse because Pletcher would definitely put JV on the better of the two horses. I was thinking that I would not necessarily agree considering that the Pletcher/Cohen combo has a much higher win percenatge than the Pletcher/JV combo. The Pletcher/Cohen combo has won at a 37% clip from 113 starts. The Pletcher/JV combo has won at a 24% clip from 523 starts.


Anyway, Simon Bray was totally wrong. The horse with Cohen won the race easily. And I think that horse broke from the rail too.

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin (Post 681810)

The $2.3 million horse from Fasig Tipton Calder is in there. His name is Brock.

Originally Posted by freddymo (Post 681857)

Accidents happen but the rail and Cohen are hardily a good sign..More Impotantly it is going to take a at least a 85 BSF to win this race and hoping that a colt riden by the B rider breaking from the rail is going to overcome a second time starter drawn well is really hard to swallow. The Nicks is second most likely he always has them ready to fire and Officer is a solid win early sprint stallion.. The Jess/ASS can be good but why would you try and beat the 11? He really looks like a easy winner

Originally Posted by jms62 (Post 681867)

What moron would pay 2.3 million for a horse?

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin (Post 681872)

I agree with you. Even at a 2 year old sale where you can watch them work and get a pretty good feel for a horse, I still think it's crazy to pay much more than $250k or so. I guess if the horse has really good breeding, I could see a guy go up to $500k or so. But to pay $2.3 million is a little crazy.

Originally Posted by randallscott35 (Post 681850)

No in sprints really if the run into the turn is long enough and certainly not with babies who don't like being close to the rail.

Originally Posted by freddymo (Post 681857)

Accidents happen but the rail and Cohen are hardily a good sign..More Impotantly it is going to take a at least a 85 BSF to win this race and hoping that a colt riden by the B rider breaking from the rail is going to overcome a second time starter drawn well is really hard to swallow. The Nicks is second most likely he always has them ready to fire and Officer is a solid win early sprint stallion.. The Jess/ASS can be good but why would you try and beat the 11? He really looks like a easy winner

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin (Post 681901)

I doubt it was an accident that the horse with Cohen won. Pletcher has a lot of confidence in Cohen, as he should. If a jock was winning for you at a 37% clip from 113 mounts with a ROI of $2.51, I don't think you'd be afraid to put him on a good horse.

If a trainer has 2 first-time starters in a maiden race and one is being ridden by his go-to jock and the other is being a ridden by a no-name jock that is 0 for 20 for that trainer, I would usually assume that the horse with the go-to jock is the live one. But if both jockeys have a really high win percentage for the trainer, I would not put nearly as much weight on which horse the #1 guy is on.

And if one of the horses has already run once and has run pretty well (as is the case for the upcoming race on Saturday), then I wouldn't put any weight on which jockey is riding which horse, because the same jock will almost for sure be riding that horse again even if the other horse is better.

Originally Posted by NTamm1215 (Post 681904)

Can you find a jockey that has ridden for Pletcher that doesn't have a high percentage when riding for him? Those Cohen-Pletcher stats were not accumulated during a time when the racing is nearly as competitive as it is at Saratoga.

NT

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin (Post 681909)

The answer is clearly "yes". Do the math. Pletcher's winning percentage this year is 27%. What was it last year? I believe it was about 24%. For the two years combined, his win percentage is about 25% or so. He is winning with Cohen at a 37% clip for that time period. If he's winning with Cohen at a 37% clip (from 113 mounts) for that time period but his overall win percentage is 25%, that means that there have to be other jockeys out there that are only winning at about a 13% clip for Pletcher. I don't know specifically which jocks. I'm sure you could look it up.

Another stat that is significant is the ROI. When JV and Pletcher pair up, the ROI is only $1.67. When Pletcher and Cohen team up the ROI is $2.51. That means that if you bet $1,000 to win on every Pletcher/Cohen horse, you would be up about $28,000. If you bet $1,000 on every Pletcher/JV horse, you'd be down over $80,000.

I was able to find one that is significantly lower. The Pletcher/Dominguez combo wins at a 20% clip.

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin (Post 681909)

Another stat that is significant is the ROI. When JV and Pletcher pair up, the ROI is only $1.67. When Pletcher and Cohen team up the ROI is $2.51. That means that if you bet $1,000 to win on every Pletcher/Cohen horse, you would be up about $28,000. If you bet $1,000 on every Pletcher/JV horse, you'd be down over $80,000.

Originally Posted by NTamm1215 (Post 681914)

I don't know why you're on such a crusade with this. So Dominguez winning at "only" a 20% clip means that Cohen is somehow a more potent combination with Pletcher? Come on, he's riding 2nd tier horses, that's not a mystery. His 8 winners with Pletcher since Aqueduct ended all happened during Triple Crown weekends, when JV was at Monmouth, or when JV had another mount in the same race.

They're 1-7 together at Saratoga with the 2YO firster being the only winner. Is Cohen a negative? Of course not but if you're using him as the rationale to play a firster bred to go long from the rail in a race that's going to have a sub even money favorite then you probably lose often.

NT

Originally Posted by Betsy (Post 681976)

All these well-bred firsters are really working quite well, as if at least one or two of them will be good ones.

Originally Posted by NTamm1215 (Post 681883)

The guy you're talking about can wipe his a.ss with $100s. $2.3 million is chump change.

NT

Originally Posted by NTamm1215 (Post 681914)

Thank you for explaining to me what you'd be up if you were betting the horses and the amounts. Can you explain to me what front bandages are for and why some horses make a poop while they walk in the paddock?

I don't know why you're on such a crusade with this. So Dominguez winning at "only" a 20% clip means that Cohen is somehow a more potent combination with Pletcher? Come on, he's riding 2nd tier horses, that's not a mystery. His 8 winners with Pletcher since Aqueduct ended all happened during Triple Crown weekends, when JV was at Monmouth, or when JV had another mount in the same race.

They're 1-7 together at Saratoga with the 2YO firster being the only winner. Is Cohen a negative? Of course not but if you're using him as the rationale to play a firster bred to go long from the rail in a race that's going to have a sub even money favorite then you probably lose often.

NT

Originally Posted by ateamstupid (Post 681977)

Have you seen them in the mornings?

Originally Posted by Betsy (Post 681999)

No...........but based on the workouts listed, it seems like they are all working well. Darley has a Bernardini Briswatch on their site, so I can check the PPs of his upcoming runners (and other horses).

Originally Posted by jms62 (Post 681867)

What moron would pay 2.3 million for a horse?

Originally Posted by GPK (Post 682001)

If you are paying attention to anything other than the spacing of the works, it's really a waste of time imo.

Originally Posted by Antitrust32 (Post 682003)

the only time I think its helpful to look at works is for Maidens & first time starters. just my opinion but I like to see a first time starter throw a bullet work before the race..

all other races works are meaningless for me... except for the spacing of them.

Originally Posted by GPK (Post 682011)

Listening to a trainer and getting the word from the backside is generally the best way to bet firsters.

Originally Posted by GPK (Post 682001)

If you are paying attention to anything other than the spacing of the works, it's really a waste of time imo.

Originally Posted by Port Conway Lane (Post 682013)

So what are supposed to be well spaced works? I see the closer look guys say works are "well spaced" but I've neglected to take note.

I give more weight to the most recent workout.