What Is The Fairest Turf Course?
 

I was thinking about this yesterday for some reason. Any ideas? I don't know that I follow enough tracks closely enough to know how each one plays.

But in terms of fair to all types, no wacky turns etc...

I guess of the ones I follow, I might go with Arlington. Woodbine might be close if the stretch wasn't so long....Churchill is up there. Maybe Belmont outer.

I dont think of CD as that fair considering the course plays a lot differently with the rais up or down. Tampa is pretty consistent. AP is a great course but they often get crazy about the temp rail too.

Yeah I consider CD to be in the 2nd tier somewhere I would say. And yes temp rails screw up fairness but on big days they are always down.

WO by a long margin. It's tough as hell to figure out but no cheap winners on it.

Once upon a time it was the two BEL courses (especially the wider) but no more. And, SAR this year is playing more and more like the Southern Cal courses. When sprinters are able to stretch and consistently beat routers, there's a problem.

Other fair courses are GG, CRC, and TAM.

Fairgrounds.

I agree with this. Would be in my Top 3

even though most of you have never seen it, Turf Paradise has a great Turf Course and it doesn't look bad after the meets over with.

Usually down I guess I don't follow ARL close enough to know. I can't see other than drainage problems having the rail out. I know how it is in NY on big days.

I thought you were speaking in terms of Arl's because that is what Chuck was talking about. All good

You should be happy. I think your local track has the fairest turf course. Maybe I'm wrong.

I think your wrong. Speed never really hold even with real slow fractions. It favors stalkers IMO. Closers have a hell of a time getting to the wire.

What's your pick?

You'll laugh but The Big M turf course plays very fair though it may never be used again. Much fairer than Monmouth.

I loved Hialeah's turf course.

I have no opinion because I never look that deep into things. I just look at a race and try and pick the winner and figure out the best way to make myself look like an idiot.

:tro:

Go down to the park 7th Heaven is playing that day. Arlington notified me by email, not who may be running but what band is playing and forgot; 'pony rides' as well :zz:

Colonial and Tampa

Sorry I have bet a lot of Tampa and think the turns are too tight to play that fairly.

The problem I have with CNL (and FG and AP, and some others) is that too often the leaders collapse very late. Your horse could be home on any other course but get run down the last few strides on these courses.

I suspected this was due to course issues of some sort. This was clarified by Desormeaux in the post race interview of the Virginia Derby. He spoke about the course(s) being uneven, how there are portions, in the stretch and elsewhere, that are lower than the rest of the course. And, how it was very important to keep Paddy O'Prado's head up while running over those portions so that he didn't bobble or lose his stride.

Speed favoring turf courses can be a real pain in the ass to handicap but at least they play consistently. It's courses like those mentioned above that are the most difficult to beat because you don't know how they'll pay and you can lose with the best horse very late.

I find Tampa at 8/8.5F about as fair as it gets for Turf.

A fair turf course shouldn't be dictated by the distance. If that was the case the European turn sprints would be fairest because some of them are run on a straightaway.

You know it!!

The Colonial inner seems to play extremely fair. It's hard to judge the outer because they run mostly sprints on it. The course may have been uneven since they run 100+ sprints and only about 20 routes on it.

That depends on how sandy it gets.

TAM is the best place to play turf in the winter. The only problem with that course, and I've mentioned this on a number of occasions with zero effect, is that there's an open rail towards the end of the stretch (like many other courses). What they've done there, however, is cut the grass in an 'outward' manner. This results in the field coming out late stretch. Luckily, the stewards are finally on to this and have stopped DQing horses for drifting late. (see the Gio Ponti race)

Fair enough. I only pulled that distance because I find 8F a bit unfair because the outer gates are penalized. That isn't a reflection on the turf itself and whether it is speed favoring or not. I think that plays fair across all routes.

A lot of late collapses at CNL. Nothing like having your horse do all the work and draw clear only to have the race fall completely apart 5 strides from the wire. Not saying it can't be beaten, just that there are 'easier' options. Of course, this has a lot to do with the poor quality jocks/horses. Clearly, this issue is not as pronounced with the better jocks and horses.

Winner’s Running Style on Arlington Turf

Closers: 61/180 = 33.9%
Stalkers: 43/180 = 23.9%
Pressers: 29/180 = 16.1%
Speed: 47/180 = 26.1%

When the rail is out past 42 feet, the course becomes much less favorable to speed/pressing types. When the rail is in from 0-42 feet, you're looking at a much fairer course.

Press trip on any surface IMO is the worse in racing.

Why is that?

Because jocks continually botch it up by moving too soon. If you're chasing a lone speed, you're supposed to go after it late stretch. If you get it, fine. If not, you're 2nd. For some reason, jocks seem to think that the finish line is on the turn.

Certainly has worked out that way at Arlington this year.

Winner’s Running Style on Arlington Polytrack

Closers: 104/421 = 24.7%
Stalkers: 125/421 = 29.7%
Pressers: 71/421 = 16.9%
Speed: 121/421 = 28.7%

Those numbers seem pretty fair by and large.

I think it's generally a pretty fair course, one of my favorites to bet on...but it does trend slightly to closers or speed horses, in my opinion, either way, but since that doesn't make a whole lot of sense, I really think that lots of the races that are won by speed or closers boils down to race dynamics rather than any intrinsic unfairness in the course.

It becomes a bit more extreme when broken out, though.

Rail 0-42 feet

Stalkers/Closers 60/109 = 55%
Pressers/Speed 49/109 = 45%



Rail 43-87 feet

Stalkers/Closers 44/71 = 62%
Pressers/Speed 27/71 = 38%

I hate when that happens, especially when the speed hits another gear and stays with the presser.

No statistics to back it up but I also like Fair Grounds' turf course. No argument for anyone saying Belmont outer (except NOT at a mile and a sixteenth) or Woodbine, either.

The 'most fun' turf course is far and away Kentucky Downs. What a great place.

As for the pressers question, I think part of it is pressers tend to be speed that can't make the lead and don't want or know how to pass, so they invariably back up and run terribly. A STRONG presser versus cheap speed is about the best trip, IMO, because there's (a) no trouble and (b) no decision to be made about when to make a move.

Really? I thought it was fairly obvious. I never want to see any horse I bet pressing the pace. Its just not where you want to be. What advantage do you have? I want to be on the lead, stalking tucked in, or coming from out of it in a fast paced race.
IMO they seem to back up/stop more then any other type of horse. The speed either keeps going or your sucked into a hot pace and stuck making the first, most of the time premature move.

You need to break out sprint's from this, specific to 5f sprints I think. There is a massive bias in those races. I think only 2 horses have closed from less then 4 lengths in those races, and I think 20 of them have been run.

I think it skews the speed number.

Thomas.... good stat.