Saratoga Pick 4's
 

$150 weekday budget, $200 weekend budget. Both pick 4's or one, however you want to do it. Will keep a running tally in this thread.

We? Who is we?

Syndicate.

BBB, PG1985, Dr Swinesmeller and Warran T?

I ask Kindly not to pollute this thread. Thanks Hoss.

And I decline kindly. Unless of course you agree to stop polluting threads.

At least I know where we stand again.

Didn't you two have a throwdown a couple years back with a very controversial ending.

I'm just curious who the "we" is. Stop being so dramatic. We stand where we always have.

I think you forgot someone. It's only three now but I imagine it will come to you.

Gales is not part of the team.

Is there going to be any DT schwag up for grabs?

No but if anyone wants to stick to the rules, post the plays daily and keep track in this thread Im game. Its a lot of work. 2 pick 4's a day, at this meet on a $60 per play budget. Tomorrow 2-5 pick 4 is a disaster. I could miss it on a 5-5-5-5 ticket.

Why a $60 limit? Do you want to entice TVG enthusiasts to participate?

$120 a day is affordable. There will be sequences like yesterday that I can hit on a 1-1-3-1 ticket, and it paid over $300.

$120 a day for two pick 4's is a losing strategy

Are you saying if I flip this into a positive ROI I am the GREATEST?

There is some angle here. I just wonder what it is.

No. It only takes one or two hits to flip it and that is 90%> luck. The odds of that happening are slim, however.

Coach of course luck is involved, but I put a lot of time into it and I expect a positive ROI following this structure of $120 and $160 on Saturdays/ just pick 4's.

RHT:
I know we have bickered in the past BUT I must compliment you on the awesome avatar. You captured his better side.

Thank You.

^^^^ Is not Laurel and most certainly is not lovely.

Well then allow a daily allowance of $120 for one or both...that way if there is a sequence one likes they can cover it properly.

What do you think is a reasonable amount? $75 per play? I dont want to go any higher then that.... $75 per sequence, and $100 for the Saturday late?

I agree.

Pass and a $120
$40 and an $80
$24 and a $96
$48 and a $72

$120 a day is $120 a day, no?

Playing like it were real cake I doubt I'd be playing $60 and $60 very often.....and expecting some return at a meet like Saratoga.

$64 and $128 per pick 4

(I like the even numbers.)

What is reasonable then for both tickets, or 1 and none or 1 small 1 big like your saying? Whats a reasonable number for the big handicapper and the little guy w/ not much money?

Might as well set the cap to $50 for all days and see how the participants stack up against TVG analysts.

Try to be serious, how about $150 a day, $200 on weekends.... However you want to structure it? One ticket can be 120 the other can be 30... WHatever?

That's much better.

Ok...

I'd try.

Where in Boston are you from? I was just in South Weymouth.
What would you try?

Wednesday Early Pick 4, Ticket #1

4/2,3,4,5,8/1,4/1,5,6,7,8 $1, $50

THis sequence SUCKS, taking stands in the 2nd and 4th. The 2nd is much more of stand, I feel really good about my 2 in the 4th. I dont want Dutrow in the 3rd, really dont want Jacobson either, will cover him though because even though it was vs lesser competition his last was really good. IMO this is the same as a flat $50 win bet on Mcpeek in the second. If she gets home, this is very likely to be a winning ticket. Julian needs to put her in the race early like last time, the layoff does not scare me because the Trombetta horse SUCKS, and the other contenders are off similar layoffs. I think Dollase's horse who has the edge of recent races will be left with 2 much to do. The firsters, the trainers dont win in these spots, if one of them pops, Im beat. The 4th, Al Stall is 7/19 dropping allowance/claimer on turf... Gomez up tells me that horse is primed, will use the 1 thinking he can bounce back. GoOD Luck, this leaves us with $100 for the late pick 4.

Late pick 4, Ticket #2

6,8,10,12/1,6/1,6,9,12/6,7,10 $1, $96

The 7th looks like a total meltdown. THe 6 looks like the fastest horse but needs to show it in NY, the 1 should get the trip for a really dangerous trainer/jockey combo. THe 6th, Chad Brown is hot and Im thinking the Bond barn will eventually heat up. Those 2 are the mains, I will respect Jerkens and the Kentucky shipper really dont think anyone else can win the 6th. The Stakes race might be more wide open then I originally thought, I think the 1 will run huge but there are a few good ones in there. I love the switch to Julian on the Mott.

I don't like Grosse Pointe Anne at all. Especially at that price. I'd rather take a shot with a horse like Amazing Lauren. In her only start on a fast track she ran okay. Was putting in an early run when she checked a little. Then last time was off a step slow. Then ran 3 wide chasing the pace which is always a prime spot on the inner :rolleyes:. Barbara is good on the drop. If she breaks, I think she's on the lead for as far as she can go.

Tracking your ROI on small, poorly constructed, caveman P4 tickets is an utter waste of time RHT. It generally requires a chalky sequence or a lot of luck as Coach pointed out. Your ROI is either going to be terrible or very lucky at the end of the meet.

The biggest improvement I've made in the last few years was improving my ticket structure for P4 and P6 sequences. I use the Crist method and put more money behind my stronger opinions. My ROI has dramatically improved even though my handicapping hasn't changed much. A wider net helps catch the big scores and pressing the stronger opinions ensures you make money even in a chalky sequence. 60 bucks isn't close to enough money to structure tickets this way.

If you are really interested in an ROI contest then why have a limit on investment? If you want to spend 60 bucks and I want to spend 300 bucks, then we can still compare ROIs at the end.

Instead of a contest, it would be more valuable to have a thread every day to actually discuss the races in the P4s like Bigs and RBE used to do for Tampa.

15 minutes North. I mean I'd try to play MOST days but not available to do do EVERY day. I'd TRY to submit as many days as possible.

To the casual fan Babara is good on the drop, just like in will say in the form.
Taking a closer look tells me most of those big stats are at Belmont and Aqueduct, its a different game at Toga.

Past 5 years at Toga MSW-MCL 0-4... Of course its not a big sample but one of these was a 5-1 dud this year already.

Maiden Claiming Races past 5 years at Toga he is 1/14 with a .90 cent ROI. Two of those 14 bombed at around 3-1. His only winner is a turf runner.

If you go just Maiden Claim on dirt you will get 0/13.

Lezcano is also an ice cold 0/15 at the meet.

Im playing the tickets. I took some advice and bumped up the limit, and its all good w/ the team. Its not really a contest, it was a thread to keep a tally of how I do, anyone who wants to just post tickets, if they play them or not is welcome, its one thread instead of a daily thing. At the end of the meet they can tally up how they do.